CRM · > +7% above its 21-day MA · forward 21 sessions · recency window from 2021-01-01 · half-life 9mo · de-clustered ≥21d
Now: +8.0% vs the 21-day MA · 95th pctile (2021+) · 91th all-time
Close 184.02 · MA 170.41 · IN BREACH now · all-time range -31.3% … +33.4%
Forward returns by regime
Median forward return (% positive) at 2 / 5 / 8 / 11 / 15 / 21 sessions, conditioned on each market regime — and the recency-weighted read (the headline). Watch how the shape shifts as the window tightens toward now.
Full historyPost-CovidAI eraRallyRecency-wtdbaseline
Horizon
Full historyn=104
Post-Covidn=26
AI eran=15
Rallyn=13
Recency-wtdn=26
2 sessions
-0.3% 45%
-0.6% 38%
-0.4% 47%
-0.4% 46%
-0.6% 44%
5 sessions
+0.1% 53%
+0.1% 65%
+0.1% 67%
+0.1% 69%
+0.1% 61%
8 sessions
-0.2% 48%
-0.9% 38%
-0.7% 47%
-0.9% 46%
-2.2% 24%
11 sessions
+0.6% 55%
-0.3% 46%
-0.4% 40%
-0.3% 46%
+1.7% 52%
15 sessions
+0.7% 51%
-0.5% 44%
-0.6% 43%
-0.6% 42%
-1.0% 35%
21 sessions
+0.6% 51%
+0.5% 52%
+1.1% 57%
+1.4% 58%
-3.9% 41%
Regime delta: the recency-weighted 21-day median is -4.4 pts vs the full-history read — the recent regime is markedly weaker here.
Headline is recency-weighted (faster 9-month half-life) over 26 post-2021 events. Regime windows: AI era from Apr 1 2023 · Rally from the Oct 30 2023 bottom. Tight regimes carry few events (see the n per column) — read them with the recency-weighted line, which keeps sample by fading rather than cutting.
Forward 21d · median
-3.9%
mean -5.9%
% positive
41%
26 events
vs baseline
-6.1 pts
base +2.2% / 59% pos
Range
-18% … +16%
25th -8.4% · 75th +4.4%
Path · max-gain
+4.4%
median MFE in window
Path · max-draw
-4.9%
median MAE in window
Every event · outcome over time
Each dot is one de-clustered event at its date; height is the forward 21-session return. Gold-ringed = post-2021 — if there are few gold rings, the signal is a pre-Covid-regime artifact.
By decade: 2000s 332010s 382020s 32
The event log
Event date
Stretch
Fwd 21d
Max gain
Max draw
2005-02-18
+15.3%
-5.3%
+6.0%
-6.3%
2005-05-19
+17.6%
+17.9%
+18.4%
+0.0%
2005-07-14
+12.1%
+3.8%
+8.2%
-2.0%
2005-09-13
+14.7%
-10.3%
+1.6%
-10.3%
2005-10-21
+6.8%
+19.2%
+19.2%
-1.3%
2005-11-21
+9.9%
+12.2%
+21.8%
+0.0%
2006-01-06
+15.9%
-4.3%
+7.0%
-4.3%
2006-03-13
+9.0%
-14.5%
+2.3%
-14.5%
2006-07-31
+7.0%
+34.7%
+34.7%
-4.0%
2006-08-29
+18.0%
+8.7%
+10.9%
-4.0%
2006-09-28
+6.9%
+6.5%
+9.7%
-6.4%
2006-11-13
+7.9%
-11.0%
+0.0%
-13.6%
2007-01-11
+8.9%
+13.5%
+14.3%
-1.3%
2007-02-12
+7.5%
-11.4%
+5.3%
-12.3%
2007-05-18
+7.2%
-1.0%
+6.4%
-2.1%
2007-09-11
+10.7%
+21.5%
+22.6%
-0.6%
2007-10-10
+11.8%
-13.0%
+2.3%
-13.0%
2007-11-16
+9.2%
+2.0%
+3.8%
-9.2%
2007-12-20
+13.9%
-15.0%
+0.0%
-20.2%
2008-02-28
+16.2%
-6.1%
+0.0%
-10.0%
2008-04-02
+7.1%
+8.0%
+9.6%
-4.7%
2008-05-05
+7.2%
+4.6%
+4.6%
-9.7%
2008-06-05
+7.7%
-9.2%
+0.7%
-9.2%
2008-12-02
+8.1%
+17.0%
+19.8%
-1.4%
2009-01-06
+6.9%
-11.2%
+0.0%
-24.7%
2009-02-05
+7.0%
+0.6%
+0.6%
-16.1%
2009-03-09
+11.0%
+18.5%
+20.7%
+0.0%
2009-04-08
+7.9%
+9.8%
+20.1%
-1.1%
2009-07-20
+8.3%
+6.2%
+15.3%
+0.0%
2009-08-21
+17.6%
+6.0%
+9.1%
-4.7%
2009-10-12
+6.9%
+3.6%
+3.6%
-7.7%
2009-11-13
+7.8%
-1.6%
+1.1%
-5.4%
2009-12-21
+7.4%
-7.4%
+7.3%
-7.4%
2010-03-01
+7.1%
+6.4%
+9.3%
-0.5%
2010-04-14
+8.5%
+3.4%
+5.8%
-7.6%
2010-06-03
+12.4%
-8.5%
+2.0%
-10.3%
2010-07-23
+8.8%
+12.5%
+13.0%
-3.4%
2010-08-23
+11.2%
+5.7%
+9.7%
-2.8%
2010-10-29
+6.9%
+19.9%
+25.6%
-5.1%
2010-11-30
+12.6%
-5.0%
+8.2%
-5.0%
2011-04-20
+7.4%
+3.2%
+3.2%
-9.2%
2011-05-20
+8.2%
-1.8%
+4.7%
-6.5%
2011-07-05
+7.6%
-6.5%
+3.5%
-6.9%
2011-09-14
+6.7%
-0.6%
+4.8%
-14.2%
2011-10-24
+6.8%
-18.3%
+5.0%
-18.3%
2012-01-19
+11.6%
+12.8%
+15.5%
-0.3%
2012-02-24
+14.4%
+9.5%
+9.5%
-2.1%
2012-08-10
+7.2%
+7.8%
+7.8%
+0.0%
2012-09-14
+7.4%
-3.3%
+0.0%
-6.6%
2012-11-21
+9.0%
+6.4%
+7.6%
-1.5%
2013-03-04
+8.1%
-9.3%
+0.3%
-9.3%
2013-05-14
+7.2%
-16.0%
+4.5%
-16.5%
2013-07-11
+8.5%
+8.9%
+10.0%
+0.0%
2013-08-30
+10.5%
+7.1%
+8.7%
-1.3%
2014-01-15
+8.5%
+5.2%
+5.7%
-4.4%
2014-02-27
+6.6%
-15.8%
+0.0%
-16.6%
2014-06-17
+9.1%
-9.0%
+2.4%
-9.0%
2014-08-22
+9.5%
-5.0%
+2.4%
-5.0%
2014-10-28
+8.5%
-3.7%
+4.7%
-5.6%
2015-02-13
+7.8%
+7.5%
+11.8%
-1.5%
2015-04-29
+10.3%
-2.5%
+0.5%
-6.0%
2015-10-16
+7.1%
-3.2%
+0.8%
-4.0%
2016-02-25
+10.4%
+3.6%
+4.9%
-2.4%
2016-05-23
+6.7%
-1.4%
+2.5%
-1.5%
2017-01-25
+6.7%
+4.2%
+4.7%
-0.7%
2018-03-01
+6.6%
-3.5%
+7.2%
-5.5%
2018-07-12
+6.7%
-1.8%
+0.5%
-7.4%
2018-11-30
+7.5%
-8.7%
+1.0%
-15.0%
2019-01-08
+8.4%
+6.3%
+9.1%
-0.4%
2019-02-12
+6.8%
-1.3%
+1.1%
-4.7%
2019-10-30
+6.7%
+2.9%
+3.7%
-1.1%
2020-01-06
+6.9%
+6.9%
+8.6%
+0.0%
2020-04-09
+8.3%
+18.2%
+18.2%
-2.6%
2020-05-11
+14.0%
-0.3%
+0.0%
-8.6%
2020-06-22
+7.5%
-0.2%
+4.7%
-4.4%
2020-08-06
+7.2%
+22.6%
+35.4%
-7.6%
2020-09-04
+11.7%
-1.8%
+0.0%
-7.3%
2020-10-09
+6.9%
-2.5%
+0.4%
-12.7%
2021-02-16
+7.7%
-14.3%
+0.0%
-17.4%
2021-04-09
+7.6%
-7.5%
+2.4%
-7.5%
2021-05-28
+7.9%
+3.2%
+3.4%
-3.0%
2021-08-26
+7.0%
+4.4%
+6.7%
-5.1%
2022-03-18
+8.2%
-12.5%
+1.1%
-14.5%
2022-06-01
+6.7%
-4.5%
+7.5%
-9.2%
2022-07-21
+7.5%
-0.9%
+3.2%
-8.0%
2022-10-21
+7.2%
-9.6%
+3.2%
-12.7%
2023-01-09
+10.6%
+15.3%
+18.7%
-1.5%
2023-02-08
+6.7%
+2.1%
+10.0%
-4.7%
2023-03-16
+7.7%
+5.2%
+6.7%
-1.3%
2023-05-18
+7.1%
+1.7%
+4.7%
-3.6%
2023-07-12
+7.0%
-8.4%
+3.1%
-9.4%
2023-11-14
+7.2%
+16.3%
+17.6%
-0.8%
2023-12-14
+7.5%
+5.5%
+5.7%
-2.4%
2024-01-29
+7.1%
+4.1%
+4.4%
-2.4%
2024-03-01
+8.4%
-3.9%
+0.0%
-7.0%
2024-06-28
+7.8%
+0.5%
+2.4%
-3.6%
2024-09-25
+7.2%
+4.6%
+6.9%
-1.2%
2024-11-08
+9.1%
+8.3%
+14.3%
+0.0%
2025-01-28
+8.6%
-18.1%
+0.0%
-18.1%
2025-05-02
+7.5%
-3.9%
+5.8%
-4.9%
2025-10-21
+8.1%
-13.5%
+0.0%
-13.5%
2025-12-05
+9.9%
+2.3%
+2.3%
-2.5%
2026-05-29
+6.8%
-17.8%
+9.7%
-21.2%
Read it honestly. The recency-weighted read leans on 26 post-2021 events (half-life 9mo); the full-history column carries 104. The regime delta shows how far recent behaviour has drifted from the long base rate. De-clustered by a 21-session gap; overlapping windows remain. A context gauge, not a mechanical signal.
Computed live from adjusted-close history (yfinance). Forward return = close-to-close over 21 sessions from each event. MFE/MAE = max favorable / adverse excursion within the window. Educational research, not investment advice.