GLD · > 5% below its 200-day MA · forward 21 sessions · recency window from 2021-01-01 · half-life 9mo · de-clustered ≥42d
Now: -9.8% vs the 200-day MA · 1th pctile (2021+) · 4th all-time
Close 371.54 · MA 411.86 · IN BREACH now · all-time range -25.2% … +43.1%
Forward returns by regime
Median forward return (% positive) at 2 / 5 / 8 / 11 / 15 / 21 sessions, conditioned on each market regime — and the recency-weighted read (the headline). Watch how the shape shifts as the window tightens toward now.
Full historyPost-CovidAI eraRallyRecency-wtdbaseline
Horizon
Full historyn=29
Post-Covidn=7
AI eran=2
Rallyn=1
Recency-wtdn=7
2 sessions
+0.3% 66%
+0.4% 86%
+1.5% 50%
+3.2% 100%
+3.2% 93%
5 sessions
+0.4% 55%
+2.0% 71%
+2.9% 100%
+3.7% 100%
+3.7% 97%
8 sessions
+0.6% 59%
+0.7% 57%
+3.2% 100%
+0.7% 100%
+0.7% 95%
11 sessions
-0.0% 48%
+0.2% 57%
+3.3% 50%
-0.3% 0%
-0.3% 12%
15 sessions
+0.7% 62%
+0.9% 71%
+4.5% 100%
+0.9% 100%
+0.9% 95%
21 sessions
+1.3% 59%
+3.1% 71%
+3.2% 50%
-2.0% 0%
-2.0% 16%
Regime delta: the recency-weighted 21-day median is -3.3 pts vs the full-history read — the recent regime is markedly weaker here.
Headline is recency-weighted (faster 9-month half-life) over 7 post-2021 events. Regime windows: AI era from Apr 1 2023 · Rally from the Oct 30 2023 bottom. Tight regimes carry few events (see the n per column) — read them with the recency-weighted line, which keeps sample by fading rather than cutting.
Forward 21d · median
-2.0%
mean -0.7%
% positive
16%
7 events
vs baseline
-2.7 pts
base +0.7% / 56% pos
Range
-2% … +10%
25th -0.0% · 75th +6.0%
Path · max-gain
+5.8%
median MFE in window
Path · max-draw
-2.3%
median MAE in window
Every event · outcome over time
Each dot is one de-clustered event at its date; height is the forward 21-session return. Gold-ringed = post-2021 — if there are few gold rings, the signal is a pre-Covid-regime artifact.
By decade: 2000s 32010s 192020s 7
The event log
Event date
Stretch
Fwd 21d
Max gain
Max draw
2008-08-11
-7.5%
-8.5%
+1.4%
-8.5%
2008-10-10
-5.8%
-11.6%
+0.1%
-15.1%
2008-12-10
-6.7%
+1.3%
+8.5%
+0.0%
2012-05-08
-5.5%
-1.0%
+1.0%
-4.2%
2012-07-10
-5.7%
+2.8%
+3.5%
+0.0%
2013-02-20
-6.0%
+3.2%
+3.2%
+0.0%
2013-04-22
-14.0%
-3.6%
+3.5%
-5.0%
2013-06-20
-20.8%
+4.2%
+4.2%
-6.2%
2013-08-20
-9.8%
-0.5%
+3.2%
-4.5%
2013-10-18
-9.0%
-3.1%
+2.9%
-3.5%
2013-12-18
-10.9%
+1.8%
+2.9%
-2.4%
2014-09-19
-5.4%
+2.3%
+2.3%
-2.1%
2014-11-18
-6.5%
+0.1%
+2.7%
-2.6%
2015-03-06
-6.6%
+3.8%
+4.3%
-1.5%
2015-07-17
-5.8%
-1.4%
+0.0%
-4.3%
2015-09-16
-5.4%
+5.6%
+6.1%
-0.5%
2015-11-13
-7.2%
-2.0%
+0.4%
-2.8%
2016-11-18
-5.7%
-6.4%
+0.4%
-6.8%
2017-01-25
-5.4%
+4.7%
+4.7%
-0.9%
2018-07-17
-5.8%
-4.4%
+0.3%
-4.4%
2018-09-14
-7.2%
+2.6%
+2.6%
-0.9%
2018-11-13
-5.3%
+3.0%
+3.9%
+0.0%
2021-02-26
-7.2%
-0.9%
+1.1%
-2.7%
2021-08-09
-5.1%
+3.4%
+5.8%
+0.0%
2022-07-06
-5.8%
+3.1%
+3.1%
-2.5%
2022-09-02
-7.0%
+0.9%
+0.9%
-5.0%
2022-11-02
-9.6%
+9.8%
+10.1%
-0.4%
2023-10-03
-5.4%
+8.5%
+10.0%
-0.2%
2026-06-10
-7.7%
-2.0%
+6.2%
-2.3%
Read it honestly. The recency-weighted read leans on 7 post-2021 events (half-life 9mo); the full-history column carries 29. The regime delta shows how far recent behaviour has drifted from the long base rate. De-clustered by a 42-session gap; overlapping windows remain. A context gauge, not a mechanical signal.
Computed live from adjusted-close history (yfinance). Forward return = close-to-close over 21 sessions from each event. MFE/MAE = max favorable / adverse excursion within the window. Educational research, not investment advice.