GLD · > 4% below its 65-day MA · forward 21 sessions · recency window from 2021-01-01 · half-life 9mo · de-clustered ≥42d
Now: -5.8% vs the 65-day MA · 5th pctile (2021+) · 6th all-time
Close 371.54 · MA 394.31 · IN BREACH now · all-time range -15.9% … +24.3%
Forward returns by regime
Median forward return (% positive) at 2 / 5 / 8 / 11 / 15 / 21 sessions, conditioned on each market regime — and the recency-weighted read (the headline). Watch how the shape shifts as the window tightens toward now.
Full historyPost-CovidAI eraRallyRecency-wtdbaseline
Horizon
Full historyn=38
Post-Covidn=9
AI eran=4
Rallyn=3
Recency-wtdn=9
2 sessions
-0.3% 47%
-0.7% 33%
-1.4% 0%
-1.9% 0%
-1.9% 2%
5 sessions
+0.4% 55%
+0.3% 56%
-0.4% 50%
-1.1% 33%
-1.1% 31%
8 sessions
+0.4% 57%
+0.1% 50%
+2.1% 67%
+2.3% 50%
-1.3% 48%
11 sessions
+1.0% 65%
+0.7% 62%
+4.5% 67%
-0.3% 50%
-0.2% 49%
15 sessions
+1.1% 70%
+2.5% 75%
+5.3% 67%
-1.1% 50%
+0.5% 51%
21 sessions
+1.5% 65%
+2.0% 62%
+3.9% 67%
-2.0% 50%
-1.3% 49%
Regime delta: the recency-weighted 21-day median is -2.8 pts vs the full-history read — the recent regime is markedly weaker here.
Headline is recency-weighted (faster 9-month half-life) over 9 post-2021 events. Regime windows: AI era from Apr 1 2023 · Rally from the Oct 30 2023 bottom. Tight regimes carry few events (see the n per column) — read them with the recency-weighted line, which keeps sample by fading rather than cutting.
Forward 21d · median
-1.3%
mean -1.8%
% positive
49%
9 events
vs baseline
-2.0 pts
base +0.7% / 56% pos
Range
-8% … +9%
25th -1.5% · 75th +3.8%
Path · max-gain
+3.8%
median MFE in window
Path · max-draw
-2.1%
median MAE in window
Every event · outcome over time
Each dot is one de-clustered event at its date; height is the forward 21-session return. Gold-ringed = post-2021 — if there are few gold rings, the signal is a pre-Covid-regime artifact.
By decade: 2000s 72010s 202020s 10
The event log
Event date
Stretch
Fwd 21d
Max gain
Max draw
2006-06-13
-9.6%
+17.2%
+17.2%
-0.5%
2006-09-11
-4.9%
-2.6%
+2.2%
-3.6%
2008-04-01
-4.5%
-0.2%
+7.4%
-1.2%
2008-06-04
-4.3%
+6.2%
+7.5%
-1.3%
2008-08-08
-5.7%
-9.4%
+0.0%
-9.4%
2008-10-16
-5.8%
-7.6%
+0.0%
-11.7%
2009-04-06
-4.7%
+5.0%
+5.2%
-0.1%
2010-02-04
-5.2%
+5.3%
+7.0%
-0.3%
2011-01-27
-4.7%
+7.6%
+7.6%
+0.0%
2011-09-26
-4.5%
+5.1%
+5.1%
-0.9%
2011-12-13
-4.8%
+0.5%
+1.2%
-5.1%
2012-04-04
-4.3%
+1.4%
+3.5%
+0.0%
2012-12-20
-4.8%
+2.2%
+2.5%
-0.2%
2013-02-22
-5.7%
+1.5%
+2.1%
-0.4%
2013-04-24
-9.7%
-2.7%
+3.2%
-5.3%
2013-06-24
-11.1%
+2.9%
+4.7%
-6.4%
2013-10-11
-5.0%
+1.0%
+6.5%
+0.0%
2013-12-12
-5.4%
+1.4%
+2.3%
-2.9%
2014-05-30
-4.4%
+6.3%
+6.3%
-0.6%
2014-09-11
-4.3%
-1.6%
+0.0%
-4.1%
2014-11-10
-7.2%
+6.8%
+7.0%
+0.0%
2015-03-06
-4.8%
+3.8%
+4.3%
-1.5%
2015-07-17
-4.4%
-1.4%
+0.0%
-4.3%
2015-11-06
-4.3%
-1.2%
+0.3%
-3.3%
2016-10-04
-4.9%
+2.2%
+2.2%
-1.3%
2016-12-02
-7.6%
-1.1%
+0.0%
-4.3%
2018-06-27
-4.4%
-2.3%
+0.5%
-2.4%
2020-03-18
-4.6%
+12.7%
+15.6%
-1.9%
2020-11-24
-5.3%
+4.0%
+4.2%
-1.7%
2021-02-17
-4.3%
-2.3%
+1.9%
-5.3%
2021-08-09
-5.5%
+3.4%
+5.8%
+0.0%
2022-05-10
-4.3%
+0.5%
+1.7%
-1.5%
2022-07-12
-7.1%
+3.7%
+4.0%
-1.7%
2022-09-15
-5.3%
-1.3%
+3.7%
-2.4%
2023-10-02
-5.0%
+8.5%
+9.7%
-0.5%
2026-03-20
-6.9%
+3.9%
+7.9%
-3.1%
2026-05-20
-5.3%
-7.9%
+0.0%
-10.3%
Read it honestly. The recency-weighted read leans on 9 post-2021 events (half-life 9mo); the full-history column carries 38. The regime delta shows how far recent behaviour has drifted from the long base rate. De-clustered by a 42-session gap; overlapping windows remain. A context gauge, not a mechanical signal.
Computed live from adjusted-close history (yfinance). Forward return = close-to-close over 21 sessions from each event. MFE/MAE = max favorable / adverse excursion within the window. Educational research, not investment advice.