IWF/IWD · > 9% below its 200-day MA · forward 21 sessions · recency window from 2021-01-01 · half-life 9mo · de-clustered ≥42d
Now: -11.7% vs the 200-day MA · 2th pctile (2021+) · 1th all-time
Close 0.47 · MA 0.53 · IN BREACH now · all-time range -16.2% … +26.2%
Forward returns by regime
Median forward return (% positive) at 2 / 5 / 8 / 11 / 15 / 21 sessions, conditioned on each market regime — and the recency-weighted read (the headline). Watch how the shape shifts as the window tightens toward now.
Full historyPost-CovidAI eraRallyRecency-wtdbaseline
Horizon
Full historyn=9
Post-Covidn=9
AI eran=3
Rallyn=3
Recency-wtdn=9
2 sessions
+0.7% 67%
+0.7% 67%
+1.6% 100%
+1.6% 100%
+1.6% 98%
5 sessions
+0.0% 56%
+0.0% 56%
+1.6% 100%
+1.6% 100%
+1.6% 98%
8 sessions
+2.3% 67%
+2.3% 67%
+2.8% 67%
+2.8% 67%
+2.8% 72%
11 sessions
+1.6% 67%
+1.6% 67%
+1.6% 67%
+1.6% 67%
+1.6% 72%
15 sessions
-0.2% 44%
-0.2% 44%
-0.4% 33%
-0.4% 33%
-0.4% 34%
21 sessions
+2.3% 78%
+2.3% 78%
+2.4% 67%
+2.4% 67%
+2.4% 62%
Regime delta: the recency-weighted 21-day median is +0.1 pts vs the full-history read — little regime change.
Headline is recency-weighted (faster 9-month half-life) over 9 post-2021 events. Regime windows: AI era from Apr 1 2023 · Rally from the Oct 30 2023 bottom. Tight regimes carry few events (see the n per column) — read them with the recency-weighted line, which keeps sample by fading rather than cutting.
Forward 21d · median
+2.4%
mean +1.6%
% positive
62%
9 events
vs baseline
+2.1 pts
base +0.3% / 56% pos
Range
-3% … +8%
25th +0.2% · 75th +6.0%
Path · max-gain
+2.6%
median MFE in window
Path · max-draw
-1.3%
median MAE in window
Every event · outcome over time
Each dot is one de-clustered event at its date; height is the forward 21-session return. Gold-ringed = post-2021 — if there are few gold rings, the signal is a pre-Covid-regime artifact.
By decade: 2020s 9
The event log
Event date
Stretch
Fwd 21d
Max gain
Max draw
2021-03-05
-9.0%
+1.9%
+1.9%
-3.0%
2021-05-06
-8.8%
+0.2%
+0.8%
-2.1%
2022-03-07
-9.8%
+6.3%
+7.6%
-1.3%
2022-05-05
-11.6%
-2.4%
+0.0%
-6.3%
2022-11-03
-9.2%
+2.3%
+2.6%
-0.8%
2023-01-05
-10.3%
+7.8%
+8.6%
+0.0%
2026-02-05
-9.1%
+2.4%
+2.4%
-1.2%
2026-04-08
-9.7%
+6.0%
+6.0%
-0.1%
2026-06-25
-11.1%
-2.9%
+6.0%
-2.9%
Read it honestly. The recency-weighted read leans on 9 post-2021 events (half-life 9mo); the full-history column carries 9. The regime delta shows how far recent behaviour has drifted from the long base rate. De-clustered by a 42-session gap; overlapping windows remain. A context gauge, not a mechanical signal.
Computed live from adjusted-close history (yfinance). Forward return = close-to-close over 21 sessions from each event. MFE/MAE = max favorable / adverse excursion within the window. Educational research, not investment advice.