IWF/IWD · > 6% below its 65-day MA · forward 21 sessions · recency window from 2021-01-01 · half-life 9mo · de-clustered ≥42d
Now: -7.6% vs the 65-day MA · 4th pctile (2021+) · 1th all-time
Close 0.47 · MA 0.51 · IN BREACH now · all-time range -10.6% … +13.5%
Forward returns by regime
Median forward return (% positive) at 2 / 5 / 8 / 11 / 15 / 21 sessions, conditioned on each market regime — and the recency-weighted read (the headline). Watch how the shape shifts as the window tightens toward now.
Full historyPost-CovidAI eraRallyRecency-wtdbaseline
Horizon
Full historyn=13
Post-Covidn=10
AI eran=5
Rallyn=5
Recency-wtdn=10
2 sessions
+1.2% 69%
+1.3% 60%
+1.5% 80%
+1.5% 80%
+1.5% 76%
5 sessions
+1.1% 54%
-0.6% 40%
+1.4% 60%
+1.4% 60%
+1.4% 66%
8 sessions
+1.5% 69%
+0.7% 60%
+1.5% 80%
+1.5% 80%
+1.5% 89%
11 sessions
+1.5% 69%
+0.8% 60%
+1.6% 60%
+1.6% 60%
+1.6% 68%
15 sessions
+0.5% 54%
-0.6% 40%
-0.4% 40%
-0.4% 40%
-0.4% 35%
21 sessions
+0.9% 54%
-2.0% 40%
-2.9% 40%
-2.9% 40%
-2.9% 35%
Regime delta: the recency-weighted 21-day median is -3.8 pts vs the full-history read — the recent regime is markedly weaker here.
Headline is recency-weighted (faster 9-month half-life) over 10 post-2021 events. Regime windows: AI era from Apr 1 2023 · Rally from the Oct 30 2023 bottom. Tight regimes carry few events (see the n per column) — read them with the recency-weighted line, which keeps sample by fading rather than cutting.
Forward 21d · median
-2.9%
mean -0.6%
% positive
35%
10 events
vs baseline
-3.2 pts
base +0.3% / 56% pos
Range
-6% … +8%
25th -3.3% · 75th +2.8%
Path · max-gain
+1.9%
median MFE in window
Path · max-draw
-3.2%
median MAE in window
Every event · outcome over time
Each dot is one de-clustered event at its date; height is the forward 21-session return. Gold-ringed = post-2021 — if there are few gold rings, the signal is a pre-Covid-regime artifact.
By decade: 2000s 12010s 12020s 11
The event log
Event date
Stretch
Fwd 21d
Max gain
Max draw
2008-10-02
-6.8%
+2.7%
+6.2%
-0.2%
2018-11-19
-5.9%
+3.1%
+4.3%
+0.0%
2020-11-24
-6.3%
+4.5%
+5.8%
+0.0%
2021-02-25
-5.8%
-3.8%
+1.9%
-5.7%
2022-01-13
-6.6%
-2.3%
+0.6%
-3.4%
2022-05-06
-6.2%
-1.7%
+0.0%
-5.5%
2022-11-02
-6.7%
+0.9%
+1.3%
-2.0%
2023-01-05
-6.2%
+7.8%
+8.6%
+0.0%
2024-09-06
-6.1%
+3.4%
+5.2%
+0.0%
2025-03-03
-5.9%
-3.5%
+2.0%
-4.3%
2026-01-15
-5.9%
-6.2%
+0.8%
-6.9%
2026-03-27
-6.3%
+6.7%
+7.6%
-0.2%
2026-06-25
-6.6%
-2.9%
+6.0%
-2.9%
Read it honestly. The recency-weighted read leans on 10 post-2021 events (half-life 9mo); the full-history column carries 13. The regime delta shows how far recent behaviour has drifted from the long base rate. De-clustered by a 42-session gap; overlapping windows remain. A context gauge, not a mechanical signal.
Computed live from adjusted-close history (yfinance). Forward return = close-to-close over 21 sessions from each event. MFE/MAE = max favorable / adverse excursion within the window. Educational research, not investment advice.