MA-Stretch Query · Recency-Weighted Event Study

MA at the 65-day line

MA · > +7% above its 65-day MA · forward 21 sessions · recency window from 2021-01-01 · half-life 9mo · de-clustered ≥42d

Now: +12.3% vs the 65-day MA · 99th pctile (2021+) · 93th all-time

Close 573.10 · MA 510.13 · IN BREACH now · all-time range -38.2% … +48.0%

Forward returns by regime

Median forward return (% positive) at 2 / 5 / 8 / 11 / 15 / 21 sessions, conditioned on each market regime — and the recency-weighted read (the headline). Watch how the shape shifts as the window tightens toward now.

Full historyPost-CovidAI eraRallyRecency-wtdbaseline

Horizon	Full historyn=64	Post-Covidn=12	AI eran=8	Rallyn=7	Recency-wtdn=12
2 sessions	-0.1% 48%	-0.5% 42%	-0.8% 38%	-0.4% 43%	-1.4% 29%
5 sessions	+0.0% 50%	-0.7% 50%	-1.8% 38%	-1.6% 43%	-2.1% 27%
8 sessions	+0.3% 53%	-0.7% 33%	-0.8% 25%	-0.6% 29%	-0.6% 15%
11 sessions	+0.6% 55%	-0.2% 42%	-0.2% 38%	-0.2% 43%	+0.3% 57%
15 sessions	+0.4% 55%	-0.3% 50%	-0.3% 50%	+0.2% 57%	+0.2% 71%
21 sessions	+0.9% 62%	+0.8% 55%	+0.8% 57%	+1.2% 67%	+0.8% 59%

Regime delta: the recency-weighted 21-day median is -0.1 pts vs the full-history read — little regime change.

Headline is recency-weighted (faster 9-month half-life) over 12 post-2021 events. Regime windows: AI era from Apr 1 2023 · Rally from the Oct 30 2023 bottom. Tight regimes carry few events (see the n per column) — read them with the recency-weighted line, which keeps sample by fading rather than cutting.

Forward 21d · median

+0.8%

mean -0.2%

% positive

59%

12 events

vs baseline

-1.5 pts

base +2.4% / 64% pos

Range

-7% … +4%

25th -1.3% · 75th +2.1%

Path · max-gain

+2.7%

median MFE in window

Path · max-draw

-3.3%

median MAE in window

Every event · outcome over time

Each dot is one de-clustered event at its date; height is the forward 21-session return. Gold-ringed = post-2021 — if there are few gold rings, the signal is a pre-Covid-regime artifact.

By decade: 2000s 15 2010s 33 2020s 15

The event log

Event date	Stretch	Fwd 21d	Max gain	Max draw
2006-08-25	+14.3%	+20.0%	+25.5%	+0.0%
2006-10-25	+16.2%	+49.1%	+49.1%	+0.0%
2006-12-26	+11.2%	+15.4%	+17.2%	+0.0%
2007-05-02	+17.1%	+19.6%	+19.6%	+0.0%
2007-07-02	+23.6%	-9.7%	+2.1%	-9.7%
2007-10-04	+9.7%	+17.7%	+17.7%	-9.2%
2007-12-04	+19.5%	+2.8%	+14.0%	+0.0%
2008-03-20	+10.4%	+7.2%	+7.2%	-1.8%
2008-05-20	+19.3%	+5.4%	+15.3%	-1.6%
2009-01-06	+11.6%	-1.3%	+0.0%	-26.4%
2009-03-12	+7.3%	+12.2%	+12.2%	-2.2%
2009-05-12	+9.1%	-4.6%	+0.0%	-6.9%
2009-07-23	+9.1%	+11.5%	+11.5%	-0.2%
2009-09-22	+17.1%	+0.6%	+0.6%	-11.2%
2009-11-23	+8.4%	+8.1%	+8.2%	-0.3%
2010-04-14	+7.9%	-11.7%	+1.6%	-15.2%
2010-09-28	+7.3%	+10.3%	+10.3%	-0.9%
2010-12-01	+8.5%	-9.7%	+4.5%	-12.4%
2011-02-15	+7.5%	-4.8%	+0.0%	-6.1%
2011-04-15	+7.7%	+5.4%	+5.5%	-0.9%
2011-06-29	+13.5%	-2.0%	+3.1%	-2.7%
2011-08-29	+9.0%	+0.7%	+8.1%	-2.0%
2011-10-28	+8.5%	+0.9%	+4.7%	-5.7%
2011-12-29	+7.5%	-6.0%	+0.0%	-10.3%
2012-03-01	+12.7%	+0.0%	+3.6%	-2.9%
2012-05-01	+9.2%	-10.8%	+0.0%	-13.5%
2012-10-03	+9.2%	-1.6%	+2.0%	-5.1%
2013-01-02	+7.4%	+1.7%	+4.4%	+0.0%
2013-05-14	+7.5%	+0.7%	+2.7%	-2.1%
2013-08-01	+11.9%	-6.2%	+1.2%	-6.2%
2013-10-01	+7.8%	+7.2%	+8.2%	-3.4%
2013-11-29	+8.9%	+9.8%	+9.8%	-1.7%
2014-10-30	+10.9%	+5.2%	+5.2%	+0.0%
2015-02-25	+8.2%	-5.1%	+0.2%	-6.2%
2015-11-06	+7.3%	-3.3%	+0.0%	-5.5%
2016-04-01	+7.7%	+2.2%	+2.8%	-2.3%
2016-09-22	+7.6%	+0.9%	+1.0%	-1.5%
2017-05-31	+7.4%	-1.1%	+2.5%	-1.7%
2017-09-08	+7.4%	+5.5%	+5.5%	+0.0%
2018-01-11	+7.2%	+4.5%	+7.5%	-0.2%
2018-03-14	+9.0%	-3.1%	+1.3%	-5.7%
2018-05-14	+8.2%	+3.8%	+5.8%	-1.3%
2018-07-13	+7.5%	-1.7%	+4.0%	-3.9%
2018-09-20	+7.5%	-8.2%	+1.1%	-12.0%
2019-01-31	+8.1%	+7.2%	+7.6%	+0.0%
2019-04-02	+11.3%	+3.5%	+6.4%	-1.3%
2019-06-07	+9.8%	+3.0%	+3.0%	-2.6%
2019-09-05	+7.4%	-6.2%	+0.0%	-9.4%
2020-01-02	+7.5%	+7.1%	+7.3%	-1.0%
2020-05-19	+7.8%	+4.9%	+7.7%	+0.0%
2020-07-20	+7.6%	+6.1%	+6.1%	-1.8%
2020-12-31	+7.3%	-6.2%	+0.0%	-11.5%
2021-03-08	+9.1%	-0.1%	+3.5%	-4.3%
2022-01-04	+8.4%	+4.0%	+5.8%	-9.6%
2022-11-15	+8.5%	+0.8%	+5.0%	-1.5%
2023-01-18	+8.5%	-0.4%	+3.7%	-0.6%
2023-05-18	+7.4%	-4.4%	+0.0%	-6.9%
2024-01-19	+7.4%	+3.4%	+7.9%	+0.0%
2024-03-20	+8.5%	-6.6%	+0.1%	-6.7%
2024-09-10	+7.2%	+2.6%	+2.7%	-0.1%
2024-11-11	+7.6%	+0.8%	+0.8%	-3.3%
2025-01-30	+8.2%	+1.6%	+1.8%	-1.9%
2025-05-15	+7.3%	-2.3%	+1.5%	-3.5%

Read it honestly. The recency-weighted read leans on 12 post-2021 events (half-life 9mo); the full-history column carries 64. The regime delta shows how far recent behaviour has drifted from the long base rate. De-clustered by a 42-session gap; overlapping windows remain. A context gauge, not a mechanical signal.

Computed live from adjusted-close history (yfinance). Forward return = close-to-close over 21 sessions from each event. MFE/MAE = max favorable / adverse excursion within the window. Educational research, not investment advice.