MA-Stretch Query · Recency-Weighted Event Study

MSFT at the 21-day line

MSFT · > +5% above its 21-day MA · forward 21 sessions · recency window from 2021-01-01 · half-life 9mo · de-clustered ≥21d

Now: +17.2% vs the 21-day MA · 100th pctile (2021+) · 100th all-time

Close 464.72 · MA 396.56 · IN BREACH now · all-time range -18.4% … +17.4%

Forward returns by regime

Median forward return (% positive) at 2 / 5 / 8 / 11 / 15 / 21 sessions, conditioned on each market regime — and the recency-weighted read (the headline). Watch how the shape shifts as the window tightens toward now.

Full historyPost-CovidAI eraRallyRecency-wtdbaseline

Horizon	Full historyn=65	Post-Covidn=18	AI eran=9	Rallyn=6	Recency-wtdn=18
2 sessions	+0.4% 58%	+0.6% 71%	+0.1% 62%	+2.2% 80%	+1.0% 58%
5 sessions	+0.0% 50%	+1.4% 76%	+1.1% 75%	+3.0% 80%	+2.6% 61%
8 sessions	+0.3% 53%	+1.2% 65%	+0.2% 50%	+3.3% 60%	+2.1% 54%
11 sessions	+0.7% 58%	+1.8% 71%	+0.9% 62%	+1.8% 60%	-0.8% 30%
15 sessions	+1.0% 61%	+4.7% 82%	+3.1% 75%	+5.5% 80%	+0.7% 62%
21 sessions	+0.9% 59%	+1.2% 59%	+1.1% 62%	+1.2% 60%	-0.4% 30%

Regime delta: the recency-weighted 21-day median is -1.3 pts vs the full-history read — little regime change.

Headline is recency-weighted (faster 9-month half-life) over 18 post-2021 events. Regime windows: AI era from Apr 1 2023 · Rally from the Oct 30 2023 bottom. Tight regimes carry few events (see the n per column) — read them with the recency-weighted line, which keeps sample by fading rather than cutting.

Forward 21d · median

-0.4%

mean -4.7%

% positive

30%

18 events

vs baseline

-2.2 pts

base +1.7% / 61% pos

Range

-17% … +9%

25th -1.2% · 75th +4.3%

Path · max-gain

+5.4%

median MFE in window

Path · max-draw

-1.4%

median MAE in window

Every event · outcome over time

Each dot is one de-clustered event at its date; height is the forward 21-session return. Gold-ringed = post-2021 — if there are few gold rings, the signal is a pre-Covid-regime artifact.

By decade: 2000s 15 2010s 25 2020s 24

The event log

Event date	Stretch	Fwd 21d	Max gain	Max draw
2005-08-03	+5.8%	+0.1%	+1.9%	-1.7%
2005-11-02	+6.1%	+6.2%	+6.7%	-0.1%
2006-08-18	+6.2%	+4.1%	+4.1%	-1.4%
2007-04-27	+5.4%	+2.6%	+3.5%	-0.6%
2007-10-25	+5.8%	+3.4%	+15.8%	+0.0%
2007-12-24	+6.4%	-10.0%	+0.1%	-12.7%
2008-04-23	+8.2%	-9.1%	+1.1%	-9.8%
2008-08-08	+7.5%	-6.8%	+0.0%	-8.5%
2008-12-08	+5.5%	-4.2%	+0.0%	-9.8%
2009-02-06	+5.6%	-15.6%	+0.0%	-22.4%
2009-03-23	+10.8%	+2.5%	+7.8%	-4.6%
2009-04-24	+9.9%	-2.1%	+0.0%	-7.6%
2009-06-01	+6.9%	+11.1%	+12.5%	+0.0%
2009-07-21	+5.6%	-4.2%	+2.9%	-6.9%
2009-10-23	+8.3%	+7.3%	+7.9%	-1.7%
2010-07-26	+5.9%	-7.4%	+0.9%	-7.4%
2010-10-29	+5.9%	-4.7%	+2.7%	-5.2%
2010-12-15	+5.8%	+1.6%	+3.5%	-0.1%
2011-06-28	+6.0%	+7.4%	+8.8%	-0.7%
2011-08-31	+5.7%	-6.4%	+2.3%	-6.4%
2012-01-04	+5.8%	+10.4%	+10.4%	+0.0%
2013-04-10	+6.3%	+7.9%	+11.5%	-5.3%
2013-05-14	+5.7%	+3.5%	+6.4%	+0.0%
2013-08-23	+8.7%	-6.6%	+0.0%	-10.4%
2013-11-05	+5.4%	+4.5%	+7.1%	+0.0%
2014-03-20	+5.6%	-1.0%	+2.7%	-2.9%
2014-07-17	+5.8%	+0.6%	+0.8%	-4.0%
2014-11-05	+5.5%	+1.8%	+3.7%	-0.2%
2015-04-24	+14.0%	-2.0%	+2.7%	-3.3%
2015-10-05	+6.1%	+16.1%	+16.3%	+0.0%
2015-11-03	+9.1%	+0.8%	+2.7%	-2.4%
2016-07-20	+7.7%	+3.7%	+4.3%	-0.2%
2016-10-24	+5.6%	+0.9%	+0.9%	-4.7%
2017-10-27	+8.5%	+1.8%	+1.8%	-1.2%
2018-01-26	+5.8%	+0.6%	+1.9%	-9.6%
2018-07-23	+5.8%	-1.5%	+2.6%	-2.4%
2019-01-18	+5.5%	-0.1%	+0.5%	-4.6%
2019-02-26	+5.4%	+3.9%	+7.0%	-1.8%
2019-04-25	+6.8%	-1.9%	+1.1%	-4.5%
2019-06-18	+5.5%	+0.9%	+2.8%	-1.3%
2020-01-30	+5.7%	+0.3%	+9.2%	-8.2%
2020-04-06	+10.3%	+10.4%	+10.4%	-1.1%
2020-05-06	+5.3%	+2.8%	+2.8%	-1.5%
2020-06-10	+6.8%	+8.6%	+8.9%	-5.4%
2020-07-10	+6.5%	-2.5%	+1.3%	-5.8%
2020-08-27	+7.0%	-7.6%	+2.2%	-11.6%
2020-10-12	+6.5%	-4.7%	+1.0%	-8.6%
2021-01-26	+5.4%	-1.2%	+5.4%	-1.2%
2021-04-05	+5.9%	-0.5%	+5.2%	-0.5%
2021-07-02	+5.9%	+3.4%	+4.3%	-0.2%
2021-10-27	+8.0%	+2.2%	+6.4%	+0.0%
2022-03-28	+5.9%	-8.8%	+1.5%	-13.0%
2022-07-28	+5.9%	-2.8%	+6.2%	-2.8%
2022-11-11	+5.9%	+4.3%	+4.3%	-2.5%
2023-02-01	+6.2%	+1.3%	+7.7%	-2.3%
2023-03-16	+8.0%	+4.6%	+5.6%	-1.4%
2023-04-27	+6.2%	+9.4%	+9.4%	-0.1%
2023-05-26	+6.6%	+0.9%	+4.6%	-2.9%
2023-07-18	+6.1%	-10.7%	+0.0%	-10.7%
2023-11-03	+5.7%	+5.8%	+8.7%	+0.0%
2024-01-19	+5.3%	+1.2%	+5.5%	-0.5%
2025-05-01	+11.9%	+8.8%	+8.8%	+0.0%
2026-04-15	+8.8%	-0.4%	+5.3%	-1.5%
2026-05-29	+8.1%	-17.2%	+2.3%	-21.6%

Read it honestly. The recency-weighted read leans on 18 post-2021 events (half-life 9mo); the full-history column carries 65. The regime delta shows how far recent behaviour has drifted from the long base rate. De-clustered by a 21-session gap; overlapping windows remain. A context gauge, not a mechanical signal.

Computed live from adjusted-close history (yfinance). Forward return = close-to-close over 21 sessions from each event. MFE/MAE = max favorable / adverse excursion within the window. Educational research, not investment advice.