MSFT · > +10% above its 65-day MA · forward 21 sessions · recency window from 2021-01-01 · half-life 9mo · de-clustered ≥42d
Now: +15.4% vs the 65-day MA · 100th pctile (2021+) · 99th all-time
Close 464.72 · MA 402.70 · IN BREACH now · all-time range -27.1% … +24.5%
Forward returns by regime
Median forward return (% positive) at 2 / 5 / 8 / 11 / 15 / 21 sessions, conditioned on each market regime — and the recency-weighted read (the headline). Watch how the shape shifts as the window tightens toward now.
Full historyPost-CovidAI eraRallyRecency-wtdbaseline
Horizon
Full historyn=32
Post-Covidn=12
AI eran=7
Rallyn=5
Recency-wtdn=12
2 sessions
-0.7% 29%
-0.5% 27%
-0.4% 33%
-0.4% 25%
-1.5% 8%
5 sessions
-0.1% 42%
+0.3% 55%
+0.5% 67%
+0.5% 75%
-0.2% 48%
8 sessions
-0.2% 45%
-0.2% 45%
+1.2% 67%
+1.9% 75%
-3.3% 46%
11 sessions
-0.7% 42%
-0.5% 45%
+1.7% 67%
+3.0% 75%
-4.8% 46%
15 sessions
+0.1% 52%
+1.1% 64%
+2.4% 83%
+1.5% 75%
-7.7% 49%
21 sessions
+1.2% 55%
+1.5% 55%
+4.7% 83%
+4.0% 75%
-5.5% 48%
Regime delta: the recency-weighted 21-day median is -6.7 pts vs the full-history read — the recent regime is markedly weaker here.
Headline is recency-weighted (faster 9-month half-life) over 12 post-2021 events. Regime windows: AI era from Apr 1 2023 · Rally from the Oct 30 2023 bottom. Tight regimes carry few events (see the n per column) — read them with the recency-weighted line, which keeps sample by fading rather than cutting.
Forward 21d · median
-5.5%
mean -5.4%
% positive
48%
12 events
vs baseline
-7.2 pts
base +1.7% / 61% pos
Range
-17% … +7%
25th -5.0% · 75th +5.7%
Path · max-gain
+3.7%
median MFE in window
Path · max-draw
-1.7%
median MAE in window
Every event · outcome over time
Each dot is one de-clustered event at its date; height is the forward 21-session return. Gold-ringed = post-2021 — if there are few gold rings, the signal is a pre-Covid-regime artifact.
By decade: 2000s 62010s 112020s 14
The event log
Event date
Stretch
Fwd 21d
Max gain
Max draw
2006-08-18
+11.2%
+4.1%
+4.1%
-1.4%
2007-10-26
+19.4%
-5.3%
+5.8%
-5.6%
2009-04-24
+16.7%
-2.1%
+0.0%
-7.6%
2009-06-24
+15.4%
-0.1%
+8.9%
-4.6%
2009-10-23
+13.2%
+7.3%
+7.9%
-1.7%
2009-12-29
+10.7%
-10.2%
+0.0%
-10.2%
2011-07-26
+10.7%
-10.8%
+0.0%
-14.1%
2012-01-20
+12.8%
+6.5%
+6.5%
-1.6%
2013-04-24
+12.6%
+8.3%
+11.2%
+0.0%
2013-11-06
+14.1%
+1.2%
+2.8%
-3.0%
2014-04-01
+10.6%
-3.4%
+0.0%
-5.4%
2015-04-24
+12.5%
-2.0%
+2.7%
-3.3%
2015-10-23
+16.7%
+3.2%
+3.9%
-0.4%
2016-08-05
+10.6%
+0.0%
+1.0%
-0.3%
2017-10-27
+12.3%
+1.8%
+1.8%
-1.2%
2018-07-25
+11.2%
-2.6%
+0.0%
-4.9%
2019-03-18
+10.6%
+2.7%
+3.0%
-0.7%
2020-01-17
+10.7%
+12.4%
+12.9%
-2.9%
2020-05-08
+10.7%
+3.1%
+3.1%
-2.7%
2020-07-09
+15.6%
-0.9%
+1.0%
-6.1%
2021-02-03
+11.1%
-4.5%
+0.8%
-6.5%
2021-07-23
+11.3%
+5.4%
+5.4%
-1.7%
2021-10-29
+11.3%
-0.1%
+3.7%
-0.7%
2022-08-15
+10.8%
-13.9%
+0.0%
-14.0%
2023-02-07
+10.5%
-5.5%
+1.7%
-7.7%
2023-04-10
+12.2%
+6.1%
+7.3%
-4.8%
2023-06-12
+11.3%
+3.3%
+4.9%
-1.0%
2023-11-10
+12.0%
+1.5%
+3.7%
-0.8%
2025-05-02
+10.9%
+6.6%
+6.6%
-0.5%
2025-07-03
+14.2%
+7.4%
+7.4%
-0.4%
2026-05-29
+12.0%
-17.2%
+2.3%
-21.6%
Read it honestly. The recency-weighted read leans on 12 post-2021 events (half-life 9mo); the full-history column carries 32. The regime delta shows how far recent behaviour has drifted from the long base rate. De-clustered by a 42-session gap; overlapping windows remain. A context gauge, not a mechanical signal.
Computed live from adjusted-close history (yfinance). Forward return = close-to-close over 21 sessions from each event. MFE/MAE = max favorable / adverse excursion within the window. Educational research, not investment advice.