MA-Stretch Query · Recency-Weighted Event Study

QQQ/SPY at the 21-day line

QQQ/SPY · > 2% below its 21-day MA · forward 21 sessions · recency window from 2021-01-01 · half-life 9mo · de-clustered ≥21d

Now: -2.1% vs the 21-day MA · 7th pctile (2021+) · 4th all-time

Close 0.92 · MA 0.94 · IN BREACH now · all-time range -5.9% … +7.3%

Forward returns by regime

Median forward return (% positive) at 2 / 5 / 8 / 11 / 15 / 21 sessions, conditioned on each market regime — and the recency-weighted read (the headline). Watch how the shape shifts as the window tightens toward now.

Full historyPost-CovidAI eraRallyRecency-wtdbaseline

Horizon	Full historyn=63	Post-Covidn=19	AI eran=7	Rallyn=7	Recency-wtdn=19
2 sessions	+0.2% 60%	+0.2% 63%	+0.1% 57%	+0.1% 57%	-0.0% 40%
5 sessions	+0.3% 60%	+0.0% 53%	+0.4% 71%	+0.4% 71%	+0.4% 82%
8 sessions	+0.2% 54%	-0.5% 32%	-0.2% 43%	-0.2% 43%	-0.2% 32%
11 sessions	+0.4% 59%	-0.3% 37%	+0.0% 57%	+0.0% 57%	+0.0% 52%
15 sessions	+0.2% 62%	+0.1% 53%	+0.1% 57%	+0.1% 57%	+0.1% 54%
21 sessions	+0.7% 60%	-0.3% 44%	+0.9% 67%	+0.9% 67%	+0.9% 75%

Regime delta: the recency-weighted 21-day median is +0.1 pts vs the full-history read — little regime change.

Headline is recency-weighted (faster 9-month half-life) over 19 post-2021 events. Regime windows: AI era from Apr 1 2023 · Rally from the Oct 30 2023 bottom. Tight regimes carry few events (see the n per column) — read them with the recency-weighted line, which keeps sample by fading rather than cutting.

Forward 21d · median

+0.9%

mean +0.5%

% positive

75%

19 events

vs baseline

+0.5 pts

base +0.4% / 58% pos

Range

-4% … +3%

25th -1.7% · 75th +1.3%

Path · max-gain

+1.3%

median MFE in window

Path · max-draw

-1.7%

median MAE in window

Every event · outcome over time

Each dot is one de-clustered event at its date; height is the forward 21-session return. Gold-ringed = post-2021 — if there are few gold rings, the signal is a pre-Covid-regime artifact.

By decade: 2000s 18 2010s 21 2020s 23

The event log

Event date	Stretch	Fwd 21d	Max gain	Max draw
2005-02-03	-2.3%	-0.7%	+0.8%	-2.1%
2005-04-19	-1.7%	+3.3%	+3.3%	-0.5%
2005-06-27	-1.8%	+3.9%	+4.1%	-0.5%
2006-02-06	-2.1%	-1.1%	+0.7%	-1.6%
2006-05-01	-1.7%	-4.2%	+0.3%	-4.2%
2006-05-31	-2.3%	+0.2%	+1.4%	-0.9%
2006-07-05	-1.8%	-3.7%	+0.0%	-4.5%
2006-12-19	-1.7%	-1.0%	+2.8%	-1.7%
2007-02-01	-1.8%	+0.9%	+2.4%	-0.4%
2007-08-16	-2.2%	+3.0%	+4.2%	+0.0%
2007-11-09	-2.2%	+0.7%	+2.0%	-1.6%
2008-01-07	-1.8%	-5.7%	+0.7%	-5.7%
2008-02-06	-3.4%	+0.8%	+2.4%	-1.0%
2008-07-22	-2.0%	+5.1%	+6.0%	+0.0%
2008-08-29	-1.9%	-6.8%	+0.0%	-6.8%
2008-09-30	-3.1%	+1.8%	+5.5%	-2.7%
2008-11-05	-2.1%	-1.0%	+1.9%	-2.8%
2009-05-07	-2.5%	+3.4%	+3.4%	-2.2%
2010-02-01	-2.0%	+2.4%	+2.4%	-0.3%
2011-03-18	-1.9%	+1.1%	+1.6%	+0.0%
2011-06-17	-1.8%	+4.7%	+4.7%	+0.0%
2011-10-27	-2.1%	-0.1%	+1.1%	-0.7%
2011-12-21	-2.2%	+2.3%	+2.6%	-0.1%
2012-04-24	-2.0%	+0.3%	+1.6%	-0.6%
2012-10-09	-2.1%	-1.6%	+0.3%	-1.9%
2013-01-24	-2.0%	-0.3%	+0.4%	-1.0%
2014-03-26	-2.1%	-2.0%	+0.3%	-2.2%
2015-08-21	-2.3%	+3.4%	+3.8%	+0.0%
2016-02-04	-1.7%	-1.3%	+0.7%	-2.1%
2016-04-22	-1.8%	-0.6%	+0.2%	-1.8%
2016-11-10	-2.9%	-1.5%	+1.0%	-1.5%
2017-06-12	-1.7%	+0.6%	+1.3%	-1.9%
2017-09-25	-2.0%	+0.6%	+1.7%	+0.0%
2017-12-01	-1.7%	+1.0%	+1.0%	-1.0%
2018-03-28	-2.2%	+0.5%	+1.7%	-0.6%
2018-07-30	-1.9%	+1.8%	+2.2%	+0.0%
2018-10-10	-2.3%	+0.8%	+2.6%	+0.0%
2018-11-12	-2.4%	+2.0%	+2.0%	-1.3%
2019-05-20	-1.8%	+0.7%	+0.7%	-2.2%
2020-04-09	-1.8%	+7.4%	+7.4%	+0.0%
2020-06-04	-2.0%	+7.7%	+7.7%	-1.0%
2020-07-24	-1.8%	+3.9%	+4.3%	+0.0%
2020-09-08	-1.7%	+1.0%	+3.0%	-0.8%
2020-11-09	-2.0%	+0.9%	+2.3%	-1.6%
2021-02-22	-2.3%	-2.4%	+0.0%	-5.7%
2021-05-04	-2.5%	-0.8%	+0.4%	-2.0%
2021-09-29	-1.9%	+1.4%	+1.4%	-0.5%
2021-12-16	-2.4%	-2.3%	+1.7%	-2.3%
2022-01-18	-2.2%	-1.8%	+0.0%	-2.9%
2022-02-23	-1.8%	+2.1%	+2.1%	-2.3%
2022-04-11	-2.0%	-4.1%	+0.8%	-4.1%
2022-05-11	-2.7%	-0.3%	+1.4%	-1.9%
2022-08-29	-1.8%	-0.3%	+0.2%	-1.3%
2022-10-11	-1.9%	-4.2%	+0.5%	-4.4%
2022-11-09	-2.6%	+1.9%	+3.2%	+0.0%
2022-12-22	-2.1%	+2.6%	+2.9%	-1.6%
2024-07-17	-2.2%	-0.8%	+0.5%	-3.1%
2024-09-06	-2.1%	+2.1%	+2.8%	+0.0%
2025-01-27	-1.8%	+0.9%	+2.9%	+0.0%
2025-02-27	-1.9%	-1.5%	+0.7%	-1.5%
2025-11-21	-1.8%	+0.8%	+2.2%	-0.1%
2026-02-04	-2.0%	+1.0%	+1.2%	-0.2%

Read it honestly. The recency-weighted read leans on 19 post-2021 events (half-life 9mo); the full-history column carries 63. The regime delta shows how far recent behaviour has drifted from the long base rate. De-clustered by a 21-session gap; overlapping windows remain. A context gauge, not a mechanical signal.

Computed live from adjusted-close history (yfinance). Forward return = close-to-close over 21 sessions from each event. MFE/MAE = max favorable / adverse excursion within the window. Educational research, not investment advice.