MA-Stretch Query · Recency-Weighted Event Study

SMH/SPY at the 21-day line

SMH/SPY · > 4% below its 21-day MA · forward 21 sessions · recency window from 2021-01-01 · half-life 9mo · de-clustered ≥21d

Now: -5.8% vs the 21-day MA · 4th pctile (2021+) · 2th all-time

Close 0.72 · MA 0.77 · IN BREACH now · all-time range -11.4% … +13.3%

Forward returns by regime

Median forward return (% positive) at 2 / 5 / 8 / 11 / 15 / 21 sessions, conditioned on each market regime — and the recency-weighted read (the headline). Watch how the shape shifts as the window tightens toward now.

Full historyPost-CovidAI eraRallyRecency-wtdbaseline

Horizon	Full historyn=58	Post-Covidn=24	AI eran=13	Rallyn=10	Recency-wtdn=24
2 sessions	+0.8% 66%	+0.7% 75%	+1.0% 77%	+0.6% 70%	+1.0% 65%
5 sessions	+1.1% 57%	+0.1% 50%	+1.8% 69%	+0.9% 60%	+1.8% 74%
8 sessions	+0.5% 53%	+1.7% 58%	+3.3% 62%	+1.1% 50%	+2.4% 51%
11 sessions	+1.0% 57%	+1.8% 62%	+2.9% 77%	+1.9% 70%	+2.9% 63%
15 sessions	+1.1% 60%	+1.9% 67%	+4.1% 69%	+3.3% 60%	+4.0% 59%
21 sessions	+1.7% 68%	+2.2% 74%	+3.8% 83%	+4.1% 78%	+4.2% 84%

Regime delta: the recency-weighted 21-day median is +2.5 pts vs the full-history read — the recent regime is markedly stronger here.

Headline is recency-weighted (faster 9-month half-life) over 24 post-2021 events. Regime windows: AI era from Apr 1 2023 · Rally from the Oct 30 2023 bottom. Tight regimes carry few events (see the n per column) — read them with the recency-weighted line, which keeps sample by fading rather than cutting.

Forward 21d · median

+4.2%

mean +3.7%

% positive

84%

24 events

vs baseline

+3.6 pts

base +0.7% / 56% pos

Range

-3% … +13%

25th +0.0% · 75th +5.2%

Path · max-gain

+5.9%

median MFE in window

Path · max-draw

-2.5%

median MAE in window

Every event · outcome over time

Each dot is one de-clustered event at its date; height is the forward 21-session return. Gold-ringed = post-2021 — if there are few gold rings, the signal is a pre-Covid-regime artifact.

By decade: 2000s 15 2010s 18 2020s 24

The event log

Event date	Stretch	Fwd 21d	Max gain	Max draw
2005-04-15	-4.1%	+7.7%	+8.3%	+0.0%
2005-10-28	-4.7%	+5.8%	+6.1%	-0.6%
2006-03-09	-3.9%	+0.6%	+1.7%	-3.9%
2006-05-23	-4.5%	-2.1%	+0.4%	-4.2%
2006-07-10	-5.7%	-0.6%	+2.5%	-3.9%
2006-10-24	-4.7%	+4.1%	+4.8%	-0.7%
2006-12-13	-3.9%	+1.0%	+3.2%	-0.8%
2007-05-30	-4.1%	+7.7%	+8.4%	+0.0%
2007-10-12	-6.5%	-2.3%	+2.9%	-5.4%
2008-01-03	-4.3%	+0.6%	+1.9%	-5.4%
2008-07-09	-4.2%	+3.9%	+7.0%	-2.4%
2008-09-03	-7.1%	-2.9%	+1.9%	-3.4%
2008-10-21	-4.8%	-7.1%	+7.9%	-7.1%
2008-11-19	-7.9%	+5.5%	+9.1%	-2.1%
2009-05-07	-4.7%	+1.6%	+5.5%	-4.3%
2010-01-22	-4.0%	+1.2%	+3.3%	-2.0%
2010-08-10	-4.2%	-5.3%	+0.2%	-5.4%
2010-09-10	-4.5%	+7.9%	+7.9%	+0.0%
2011-03-09	-3.8%	+0.7%	+1.2%	-2.7%
2011-10-04	-4.1%	+2.7%	+5.2%	+0.0%
2012-07-12	-4.2%	+6.9%	+6.9%	-2.1%
2012-09-20	-3.9%	-3.8%	+0.1%	-3.8%
2014-10-10	-6.8%	+6.5%	+7.5%	+0.0%
2015-07-07	-3.9%	-4.6%	+0.0%	-5.7%
2015-08-20	-4.2%	+7.8%	+9.4%	+0.0%
2016-01-15	-4.1%	+2.7%	+4.1%	-0.2%
2017-07-03	-4.6%	+3.7%	+6.5%	+0.0%
2017-11-29	-5.0%	-2.5%	+0.0%	-3.5%
2018-04-05	-4.0%	-1.7%	+2.3%	-5.0%
2018-06-25	-4.4%	-1.7%	+1.1%	-1.7%
2018-08-17	-4.1%	+1.0%	+5.0%	-0.3%
2018-10-10	-4.7%	+0.2%	+3.5%	-3.3%
2019-05-13	-5.3%	-3.1%	+2.0%	-6.3%
2020-03-18	-4.0%	+8.8%	+12.3%	+0.0%
2021-03-04	-6.2%	+7.2%	+7.2%	-3.7%
2021-04-30	-4.2%	+1.8%	+1.9%	-5.3%
2021-07-16	-3.8%	+2.2%	+7.6%	+0.0%
2021-10-04	-4.0%	+4.0%	+4.0%	-0.8%
2022-01-20	-4.7%	-1.2%	+1.8%	-4.3%
2022-03-07	-5.4%	-1.4%	+5.9%	-1.4%
2022-04-05	-4.1%	-0.7%	+0.4%	-4.9%
2022-06-16	-4.1%	+1.7%	+1.7%	-8.0%
2022-08-22	-4.1%	-3.5%	+2.4%	-5.2%
2022-10-11	-5.7%	+5.1%	+5.8%	-3.2%
2022-12-27	-4.3%	+12.6%	+13.6%	-0.0%
2023-04-25	-4.9%	+6.8%	+8.6%	+0.0%
2023-08-11	-4.7%	+2.1%	+6.2%	+0.0%
2023-09-21	-3.9%	+3.4%	+7.6%	+0.0%
2024-04-19	-6.5%	+10.2%	+10.2%	+0.0%
2024-07-17	-6.0%	-2.4%	+1.8%	-10.7%
2024-09-03	-5.4%	+4.1%	+7.9%	-2.5%
2024-11-15	-4.5%	+1.0%	+1.9%	-2.9%
2025-01-27	-7.3%	+4.2%	+7.4%	+0.0%
2025-02-27	-4.4%	-2.7%	+3.2%	-2.7%
2025-03-31	-3.9%	+0.8%	+1.8%	-5.3%
2025-11-20	-4.3%	+5.4%	+9.2%	-0.7%
2026-03-06	-4.3%	+6.9%	+7.0%	+0.0%

Read it honestly. The recency-weighted read leans on 24 post-2021 events (half-life 9mo); the full-history column carries 58. The regime delta shows how far recent behaviour has drifted from the long base rate. De-clustered by a 21-session gap; overlapping windows remain. A context gauge, not a mechanical signal.

Computed live from adjusted-close history (yfinance). Forward return = close-to-close over 21 sessions from each event. MFE/MAE = max favorable / adverse excursion within the window. Educational research, not investment advice.