SMH · > 6% below its 21-day MA · forward 21 sessions · recency window from 2021-01-01 · half-life 9mo · de-clustered ≥21d
Now: -5.6% vs the 21-day MA · 10th pctile (2021+) · 7th all-time
Close 540.53 · MA 572.62 · IN BREACH now · all-time range -23.3% … +17.7%
Forward returns by regime
Median forward return (% positive) at 2 / 5 / 8 / 11 / 15 / 21 sessions, conditioned on each market regime — and the recency-weighted read (the headline). Watch how the shape shifts as the window tightens toward now.
Full historyPost-CovidAI eraRallyRecency-wtdbaseline
Horizon
Full historyn=62
Post-Covidn=24
AI eran=13
Rallyn=9
Recency-wtdn=24
2 sessions
+0.5% 56%
+1.6% 62%
+1.7% 77%
+2.7% 67%
+4.3% 79%
5 sessions
+1.3% 61%
+1.5% 67%
+1.8% 77%
+1.7% 78%
+1.8% 85%
8 sessions
+1.4% 56%
+3.6% 67%
+3.8% 77%
+3.4% 67%
+3.4% 62%
11 sessions
+1.8% 55%
+4.1% 67%
+3.8% 77%
+2.8% 67%
+2.8% 79%
15 sessions
+2.8% 61%
+6.1% 67%
+6.8% 69%
+5.4% 56%
-0.8% 45%
21 sessions
+2.9% 64%
+5.1% 74%
+6.6% 92%
+7.7% 88%
+5.1% 87%
Regime delta: the recency-weighted 21-day median is +2.2 pts vs the full-history read — the recent regime is markedly stronger here.
Headline is recency-weighted (faster 9-month half-life) over 24 post-2021 events. Regime windows: AI era from Apr 1 2023 · Rally from the Oct 30 2023 bottom. Tight regimes carry few events (see the n per column) — read them with the recency-weighted line, which keeps sample by fading rather than cutting.
Forward 21d · median
+5.1%
mean +6.1%
% positive
87%
24 events
vs baseline
+3.1 pts
base +2.0% / 62% pos
Range
-14% … +18%
25th +0.0% · 75th +11.6%
Path · max-gain
+12.0%
median MFE in window
Path · max-draw
-2.5%
median MAE in window
Every event · outcome over time
Each dot is one de-clustered event at its date; height is the forward 21-session return. Gold-ringed = post-2021 — if there are few gold rings, the signal is a pre-Covid-regime artifact.
By decade: 2000s 152010s 222020s 24
The event log
Event date
Stretch
Fwd 21d
Max gain
Max draw
2005-04-15
-6.9%
+10.2%
+10.2%
+0.0%
2005-10-11
-5.6%
+4.7%
+4.7%
-2.3%
2006-05-17
-5.7%
-5.7%
+0.5%
-9.1%
2006-07-20
-5.6%
+10.2%
+10.2%
-3.0%
2007-08-15
-5.6%
+2.9%
+7.7%
-0.3%
2007-10-19
-5.6%
-9.6%
+1.0%
-9.6%
2007-11-21
-5.9%
+5.4%
+7.2%
-1.0%
2008-01-03
-5.9%
-4.3%
+0.0%
-11.0%
2008-06-30
-5.6%
-5.9%
+0.5%
-8.2%
2008-09-03
-7.6%
-14.5%
+0.0%
-14.5%
2008-10-02
-8.7%
-10.2%
+0.0%
-20.9%
2008-11-06
-9.1%
-6.9%
+5.0%
-18.1%
2009-01-14
-6.3%
+10.0%
+15.1%
-0.7%
2009-02-19
-8.1%
+12.5%
+17.9%
-2.9%
2009-11-03
-5.8%
+12.0%
+12.0%
+0.0%
2010-01-22
-7.3%
+1.7%
+4.6%
-4.5%
2010-05-06
-6.9%
-4.6%
+6.0%
-4.6%
2010-08-12
-6.2%
-0.5%
+2.0%
-6.8%
2011-03-15
-5.8%
+2.1%
+5.1%
-2.4%
2011-06-10
-5.7%
-0.0%
+6.2%
-2.4%
2011-08-02
-6.0%
-6.5%
+1.0%
-12.3%
2011-10-03
-6.0%
+11.4%
+17.6%
-1.8%
2011-11-22
-6.6%
+3.8%
+7.0%
-3.6%
2012-05-17
-6.2%
+2.2%
+2.2%
-4.9%
2014-10-10
-9.9%
+14.0%
+14.2%
-1.4%
2015-07-08
-6.6%
-2.2%
+2.4%
-2.9%
2015-08-20
-6.5%
+4.4%
+6.9%
-4.9%
2016-01-07
-7.5%
-5.0%
+1.3%
-5.3%
2016-06-27
-5.9%
+19.5%
+19.9%
+0.0%
2017-12-04
-5.6%
+6.7%
+6.7%
+0.0%
2018-02-05
-6.2%
+11.7%
+11.7%
-3.1%
2018-03-28
-6.0%
-4.0%
+3.7%
-5.4%
2018-06-25
-5.6%
+3.0%
+4.3%
-1.8%
2018-10-10
-8.3%
+1.0%
+3.4%
-7.9%
2018-12-19
-5.6%
+5.7%
+8.9%
-5.1%
2019-05-13
-8.4%
-0.6%
+3.5%
-6.9%
2019-08-05
-6.6%
+7.1%
+7.1%
+0.0%
2020-02-25
-7.1%
-14.9%
+2.9%
-25.1%
2021-03-04
-8.9%
+16.0%
+16.0%
-2.5%
2021-05-12
-8.3%
+12.5%
+12.5%
+0.0%
2021-10-04
-6.7%
+12.0%
+12.0%
+0.0%
2022-01-19
-6.4%
-5.9%
+1.1%
-10.0%
2022-03-07
-9.5%
+6.4%
+16.9%
-1.6%
2022-04-08
-6.3%
-8.2%
+0.2%
-10.5%
2022-05-11
-7.0%
+1.9%
+13.4%
+0.0%
2022-06-13
-9.7%
-0.9%
+2.6%
-7.3%
2022-08-26
-6.1%
-14.0%
+0.0%
-14.6%
2022-09-27
-6.9%
-1.8%
+5.4%
-9.6%
2022-12-22
-6.0%
+16.3%
+17.0%
-3.0%
2023-04-25
-5.5%
+8.2%
+12.1%
+0.0%
2023-08-11
-6.0%
+2.2%
+7.1%
-0.5%
2023-09-21
-6.6%
+1.0%
+8.1%
-0.0%
2023-10-26
-5.7%
+17.6%
+20.0%
+0.0%
2024-04-18
-6.3%
+10.4%
+12.1%
-4.5%
2024-07-19
-6.6%
+1.3%
+3.9%
-14.8%
2024-09-06
-9.4%
+15.5%
+17.5%
+0.0%
2025-01-27
-6.5%
+3.4%
+9.3%
+0.0%
2025-02-27
-7.2%
-7.3%
+1.7%
-7.3%
2025-04-03
-11.1%
+11.3%
+12.0%
-8.0%
2025-11-20
-7.6%
+11.0%
+15.1%
+0.0%
2026-03-06
-6.2%
+5.1%
+5.4%
-4.7%
Read it honestly. The recency-weighted read leans on 24 post-2021 events (half-life 9mo); the full-history column carries 62. The regime delta shows how far recent behaviour has drifted from the long base rate. De-clustered by a 21-session gap; overlapping windows remain. A context gauge, not a mechanical signal.
Computed live from adjusted-close history (yfinance). Forward return = close-to-close over 21 sessions from each event. MFE/MAE = max favorable / adverse excursion within the window. Educational research, not investment advice.