UNH · > +17% above its 200-day MA · forward 21 sessions · recency window from 2021-01-01 · half-life 9mo · de-clustered ≥42d
Now: +21.4% vs the 200-day MA · 96th pctile (2021+) · 95th all-time
Close 414.40 · MA 341.48 · IN BREACH now · all-time range -51.0% … +31.5%
Forward returns by regime
Median forward return (% positive) at 2 / 5 / 8 / 11 / 15 / 21 sessions, conditioned on each market regime — and the recency-weighted read (the headline). Watch how the shape shifts as the window tightens toward now.
Full historyPost-CovidAI eraRallyRecency-wtdbaseline
Horizon
Full historyn=36
Post-Covidn=10
AI eran=4
Rallyn=4
Recency-wtdn=10
2 sessions
-0.5% 47%
-0.0% 50%
+0.4% 50%
+0.4% 50%
+1.0% 81%
5 sessions
-0.5% 47%
-1.0% 30%
-1.6% 25%
-1.6% 25%
-0.8% 44%
8 sessions
+0.4% 56%
-1.3% 40%
-0.5% 50%
-0.5% 50%
+1.1% 81%
11 sessions
-0.2% 47%
-1.3% 30%
-1.0% 25%
-1.0% 25%
-0.3% 38%
15 sessions
-0.6% 47%
-1.1% 40%
+1.4% 50%
+1.4% 50%
+3.9% 81%
21 sessions
-0.2% 50%
-1.9% 30%
-0.7% 50%
-0.7% 50%
+0.2% 80%
Regime delta: the recency-weighted 21-day median is +0.3 pts vs the full-history read — little regime change.
Headline is recency-weighted (faster 9-month half-life) over 10 post-2021 events. Regime windows: AI era from Apr 1 2023 · Rally from the Oct 30 2023 bottom. Tight regimes carry few events (see the n per column) — read them with the recency-weighted line, which keeps sample by fading rather than cutting.
Forward 21d · median
+0.2%
mean +0.7%
% positive
80%
10 events
vs baseline
-1.6 pts
base +1.8% / 61% pos
Range
-10% … +4%
25th -6.5% · 75th -0.1%
Path · max-gain
+1.9%
median MFE in window
Path · max-draw
-4.3%
median MAE in window
Every event · outcome over time
Each dot is one de-clustered event at its date; height is the forward 21-session return. Gold-ringed = post-2021 — if there are few gold rings, the signal is a pre-Covid-regime artifact.
By decade: 2000s 52010s 182020s 13
The event log
Event date
Stretch
Fwd 21d
Max gain
Max draw
2005-10-19
+17.9%
+4.8%
+4.8%
-7.3%
2005-12-19
+17.6%
-3.8%
+3.1%
-3.8%
2009-05-08
+17.3%
-10.0%
+0.0%
-10.0%
2009-07-28
+20.5%
-0.5%
+2.9%
-10.7%
2009-12-10
+18.0%
+5.7%
+8.9%
+0.0%
2010-02-11
+18.3%
-1.8%
+3.0%
-4.5%
2010-10-25
+17.2%
-4.0%
+0.0%
-6.8%
2011-01-07
+16.9%
+9.2%
+11.9%
+0.0%
2011-03-10
+24.4%
+1.3%
+4.2%
-4.4%
2011-05-10
+31.1%
+0.5%
+0.5%
-5.6%
2011-07-11
+21.0%
-12.2%
+3.6%
-17.7%
2012-03-29
+17.5%
-3.4%
+2.4%
-3.4%
2013-07-08
+18.2%
+8.4%
+8.6%
-2.0%
2013-09-05
+22.1%
-1.0%
+1.9%
-4.3%
2014-10-30
+17.1%
+5.5%
+5.5%
-0.3%
2014-12-31
+18.6%
+6.1%
+12.6%
-2.1%
2015-03-04
+24.1%
+3.5%
+6.7%
-1.2%
2015-05-14
+17.9%
+0.8%
+2.3%
-1.7%
2016-11-30
+17.3%
+1.1%
+3.5%
-0.6%
2017-06-07
+16.8%
+3.0%
+3.2%
-2.2%
2017-10-27
+18.5%
+1.7%
+1.7%
-1.5%
2017-12-28
+16.9%
+6.2%
+11.5%
-1.0%
2019-12-13
+17.4%
+3.8%
+3.8%
+0.0%
2020-02-14
+17.4%
-17.9%
+2.2%
-24.4%
2020-06-05
+17.6%
-4.5%
+0.0%
-9.0%
2020-11-04
+21.5%
-1.0%
+0.6%
-6.0%
2021-01-06
+17.3%
-9.7%
+1.6%
-9.7%
2021-03-29
+16.9%
+4.1%
+5.6%
-3.9%
2021-05-27
+19.6%
-2.4%
+0.0%
-5.3%
2021-10-26
+17.0%
-1.0%
+2.1%
-3.8%
2021-12-27
+20.6%
-8.2%
+1.2%
-8.5%
2022-03-30
+17.4%
-2.4%
+4.8%
-2.4%
2024-09-04
+17.1%
-1.5%
+0.0%
-4.8%
2024-11-08
+16.9%
-7.9%
+1.5%
-10.7%
2026-04-28
+18.0%
+4.3%
+9.4%
-0.8%
2026-06-29
+26.4%
+0.2%
+3.9%
-1.0%
Read it honestly. The recency-weighted read leans on 10 post-2021 events (half-life 9mo); the full-history column carries 36. The regime delta shows how far recent behaviour has drifted from the long base rate. De-clustered by a 42-session gap; overlapping windows remain. A context gauge, not a mechanical signal.
Computed live from adjusted-close history (yfinance). Forward return = close-to-close over 21 sessions from each event. MFE/MAE = max favorable / adverse excursion within the window. Educational research, not investment advice.