MA-Stretch Query · Recency-Weighted Event Study

V at the 65-day line

V · > +7% above its 65-day MA · forward 21 sessions · recency window from 2021-01-01 · half-life 9mo · de-clustered ≥42d

Now: +8.7% vs the 65-day MA · 96th pctile (2021+) · 91th all-time

Close 366.13 · MA 336.89 · IN BREACH now · all-time range -29.0% … +22.2%

Forward returns by regime

Median forward return (% positive) at 2 / 5 / 8 / 11 / 15 / 21 sessions, conditioned on each market regime — and the recency-weighted read (the headline). Watch how the shape shifts as the window tightens toward now.

Full historyPost-CovidAI eraRallyRecency-wtdbaseline

Horizon	Full historyn=50	Post-Covidn=12	AI eran=7	Rallyn=7	Recency-wtdn=12
2 sessions	-0.3% 40%	-0.1% 50%	+0.1% 57%	+0.1% 57%	+0.4% 70%
5 sessions	+0.0% 50%	-0.1% 50%	-0.4% 43%	-0.4% 43%	+1.3% 62%
8 sessions	+0.3% 56%	+0.8% 58%	-0.4% 43%	-0.4% 43%	+3.9% 68%
11 sessions	+0.3% 54%	+0.2% 58%	+0.3% 71%	+0.3% 71%	+5.0% 86%
15 sessions	+0.7% 54%	-0.1% 50%	+0.8% 71%	+0.8% 71%	+3.0% 79%
21 sessions	+0.5% 54%	-1.2% 33%	+1.7% 57%	+1.7% 57%	+5.0% 67%

Regime delta: the recency-weighted 21-day median is +4.4 pts vs the full-history read — the recent regime is markedly stronger here.

Headline is recency-weighted (faster 9-month half-life) over 12 post-2021 events. Regime windows: AI era from Apr 1 2023 · Rally from the Oct 30 2023 bottom. Tight regimes carry few events (see the n per column) — read them with the recency-weighted line, which keeps sample by fading rather than cutting.

Forward 21d · median

+5.0%

mean +2.1%

% positive

67%

12 events

vs baseline

+3.1 pts

base +1.9% / 64% pos

Range

-8% … +7%

25th -4.5% · 75th +1.7%

Path · max-gain

+2.3%

median MFE in window

Path · max-draw

-1.8%

median MAE in window

Every event · outcome over time

Each dot is one de-clustered event at its date; height is the forward 21-session return. Gold-ringed = post-2021 — if there are few gold rings, the signal is a pre-Covid-regime artifact.

By decade: 2000s 7 2010s 28 2020s 15

The event log

Event date	Stretch	Fwd 21d	Max gain	Max draw
2008-06-19	+11.3%	-14.7%	+0.0%	-18.8%
2009-01-06	+9.6%	-6.7%	+0.0%	-26.4%
2009-03-18	+7.4%	+3.0%	+8.5%	-6.7%
2009-05-18	+14.9%	-7.6%	+5.1%	-7.6%
2009-08-26	+7.2%	+0.7%	+6.0%	-0.7%
2009-10-28	+7.9%	+5.1%	+7.0%	-1.1%
2009-12-29	+12.1%	-6.8%	+0.1%	-7.8%
2010-03-11	+8.3%	+0.5%	+0.5%	-4.3%
2010-10-15	+7.5%	-1.6%	+3.9%	-1.6%
2011-05-03	+7.3%	+1.1%	+1.5%	-3.7%
2011-07-01	+13.1%	-5.0%	+2.5%	-5.0%
2011-09-15	+7.2%	+3.8%	+3.8%	-6.9%
2011-11-30	+7.3%	+4.7%	+6.4%	-1.6%
2012-02-02	+8.8%	+9.8%	+12.4%	+0.0%
2012-04-03	+8.8%	-3.3%	+2.6%	-3.3%
2012-07-30	+8.5%	-2.5%	+0.2%	-3.0%
2012-10-03	+7.3%	+2.2%	+3.9%	-1.5%
2012-12-20	+7.4%	+4.3%	+6.1%	-2.5%
2013-03-28	+7.3%	-1.1%	+0.0%	-5.0%
2013-05-30	+7.6%	+1.0%	+1.8%	-2.1%
2013-09-20	+8.4%	+0.6%	+0.8%	-8.2%
2013-12-17	+7.8%	+8.9%	+8.9%	+0.0%
2014-10-30	+11.3%	+9.3%	+9.3%	+0.0%
2014-12-31	+9.2%	-2.6%	+1.1%	-6.0%
2015-07-24	+8.8%	-8.5%	+2.1%	-8.5%
2015-10-26	+7.7%	+2.2%	+3.1%	-3.8%
2016-04-06	+7.3%	-1.1%	+4.1%	-1.5%
2017-02-14	+7.5%	+3.9%	+4.0%	+0.0%
2017-09-11	+7.3%	+1.1%	+1.1%	-3.0%
2018-01-05	+7.2%	+0.9%	+6.3%	-2.2%
2018-05-11	+7.6%	+2.5%	+3.5%	-1.5%
2018-07-12	+7.3%	-0.1%	+2.0%	-2.4%
2019-02-28	+7.6%	+5.4%	+5.4%	-0.9%
2019-04-30	+8.8%	-0.9%	+0.4%	-4.3%
2019-07-03	+7.7%	+0.3%	+3.9%	-0.4%
2020-01-13	+7.2%	+6.2%	+6.6%	+0.0%
2020-05-18	+9.7%	+1.1%	+4.8%	-1.3%
2020-08-26	+7.4%	-6.2%	+3.0%	-7.1%
2021-03-11	+8.0%	-2.1%	+0.0%	-8.5%
2021-07-15	+7.4%	-6.3%	+1.0%	-6.6%
2022-01-28	+8.3%	-8.2%	+3.3%	-8.2%
2022-11-15	+7.4%	-1.0%	+3.7%	-1.7%
2023-01-20	+7.8%	-1.5%	+3.2%	-1.5%
2023-12-12	+7.3%	+1.8%	+1.9%	-0.9%
2024-02-22	+7.4%	-0.2%	+2.3%	-1.9%
2024-09-16	+8.1%	-3.9%	+0.4%	-7.2%
2024-11-13	+9.9%	+1.7%	+2.3%	-0.7%
2025-01-27	+8.1%	+5.0%	+6.8%	-0.0%
2025-05-19	+7.4%	-7.5%	+1.5%	-7.5%
2026-06-30	+7.3%	+6.8%	+7.5%	+0.0%

Read it honestly. The recency-weighted read leans on 12 post-2021 events (half-life 9mo); the full-history column carries 50. The regime delta shows how far recent behaviour has drifted from the long base rate. De-clustered by a 42-session gap; overlapping windows remain. A context gauge, not a mechanical signal.

Computed live from adjusted-close history (yfinance). Forward return = close-to-close over 21 sessions from each event. MFE/MAE = max favorable / adverse excursion within the window. Educational research, not investment advice.