MA-Stretch Query · Recency-Weighted Event Study

WMT at the 200-day line

WMT  ·  > 3% below its 200-day MA  ·  forward 21 sessions  ·  recency window from 2021-01-01  ·  half-life 9mo  ·  de-clustered ≥42d
Now: -5.5% vs the 200-day MA  · 5th pctile (2021+) · 8th all-time
Close 111.20 · MA 117.67 · IN BREACH now · all-time range -22.6% … +34.8%

Forward returns by regime

Median forward return (% positive) at 2 / 5 / 8 / 11 / 15 / 21 sessions, conditioned on each market regime — and the recency-weighted read (the headline). Watch how the shape shifts as the window tightens toward now.
-5.0%-2.1%+0.7%+3.6%+6.5%2d5d8d11d15d21d
Full historyPost-CovidAI eraRallyRecency-wtdbaseline
HorizonFull historyn=36Post-Covidn=9AI eran=1Rallyn=1Recency-wtdn=9
2 sessions+0.1% 61%+0.7% 56%-1.3% 0%-1.3% 0%-1.3% 8%
5 sessions+0.3% 53%-0.3% 33%-0.1% 0%-0.1% 0%-0.1% 3%
8 sessions+1.8% 64%+1.9% 78%+1.3% 100%+1.3% 100%+1.3% 97%
11 sessions+1.3% 69%+1.5% 67%+1.5% 100%+1.5% 100%+1.5% 94%
15 sessions+3.0% 64%-0.5% 44%-3.5% 0%-3.5% 0%-3.5% 6%
21 sessions+2.9% 61%+5.0% 78%-1.9% 0%-1.9% 0%-1.9% 10%
Regime delta: the recency-weighted 21-day median is -4.8 pts vs the full-history read — the recent regime is markedly weaker here.
Headline is recency-weighted (faster 9-month half-life) over 9 post-2021 events. Regime windows: AI era from Apr 1 2023 · Rally from the Oct 30 2023 bottom. Tight regimes carry few events (see the n per column) — read them with the recency-weighted line, which keeps sample by fading rather than cutting.
Forward 21d · median
-1.9%
mean -1.2%
% positive
10%
9 events
vs baseline
-2.9 pts
base +1.0% / 59% pos
Range
-8% … +10%
25th +1.1% · 75th +7.2%
Path · max-gain
+5.0%
median MFE in window
Path · max-draw
-3.2%
median MAE in window

Every event · outcome over time

Each dot is one de-clustered event at its date; height is the forward 21-session return. Gold-ringed = post-2021 — if there are few gold rings, the signal is a pre-Covid-regime artifact.
-11%-5%+2%+9%+16%median +2.9%2008201120142017202020232026each dot = one event · y = forward return
By decade: 2000s 12 2010s 14 2020s 10

The event log

Event dateStretchFwd 21dMax gainMax draw
2005-10-17-7.1%+7.8%+9.0%-1.1%
2006-01-05-3.6%-1.3%+1.9%-1.6%
2006-03-08-3.5%+3.2%+7.6%-0.1%
2006-07-12-2.9%-0.6%+0.0%-4.7%
2007-07-27-3.5%-4.1%+5.4%-5.6%
2007-09-26-7.3%+1.3%+8.7%+0.0%
2007-11-26-2.9%+7.9%+9.8%+0.0%
2008-10-09-6.2%+5.8%+9.2%-3.3%
2009-01-08-8.7%-4.1%+1.4%-9.7%
2009-03-11-13.2%+6.7%+13.4%+0.0%
2009-05-11-5.1%-0.6%+1.4%-4.4%
2009-07-10-7.0%+4.5%+5.1%+0.0%
2010-05-25-3.8%-0.5%+2.9%-0.5%
2010-08-12-3.3%+3.5%+3.5%-0.7%
2011-08-02-3.4%+3.7%+4.0%-5.6%
2014-02-03-4.4%+2.9%+4.3%+0.0%
2014-07-31-3.3%+3.3%+3.8%-0.3%
2015-05-19-4.2%-4.5%+0.0%-5.9%
2015-07-20-8.2%-4.3%+1.2%-4.3%
2015-09-17-16.5%-8.7%+3.8%-8.7%
2015-11-16-19.9%+5.1%+5.4%+0.0%
2016-01-19-7.0%+2.5%+7.9%-2.7%
2017-01-12-2.8%-0.3%+1.6%-3.4%
2018-05-03-2.8%-0.3%+1.5%-3.8%
2018-07-03-5.7%+5.1%+5.7%+0.0%
2018-12-20-3.0%+13.1%+13.1%-1.7%
2020-02-27-3.1%-0.3%+11.0%-5.8%
2021-02-25-3.4%+2.8%+2.8%-3.3%
2021-06-18-3.7%+5.0%+5.0%+0.0%
2021-10-04-3.3%+10.3%+10.6%+0.0%
2021-12-02-3.7%+7.2%+8.0%+0.0%
2022-02-07-2.8%+1.1%+3.5%-3.2%
2022-05-17-8.4%-8.2%+0.0%-9.3%
2022-07-19-6.9%+8.2%+8.2%-5.9%
2022-09-23-4.6%+7.2%+7.2%-1.2%
2026-06-30-2.9%-1.9%+1.5%-4.3%
Read it honestly. The recency-weighted read leans on 9 post-2021 events (half-life 9mo); the full-history column carries 36. The regime delta shows how far recent behaviour has drifted from the long base rate. De-clustered by a 42-session gap; overlapping windows remain. A context gauge, not a mechanical signal.
Computed live from adjusted-close history (yfinance). Forward return = close-to-close over 21 sessions from each event. MFE/MAE = max favorable / adverse excursion within the window. Educational research, not investment advice.