WMT · > 5% below its 65-day MA · forward 21 sessions · recency window from 2021-01-01 · half-life 9mo · de-clustered ≥42d
Now: -6.7% vs the 65-day MA · 7th pctile (2021+) · 6th all-time
Close 111.20 · MA 119.14 · IN BREACH now · all-time range -18.3% … +19.6%
Forward returns by regime
Median forward return (% positive) at 2 / 5 / 8 / 11 / 15 / 21 sessions, conditioned on each market regime — and the recency-weighted read (the headline). Watch how the shape shifts as the window tightens toward now.
Full historyPost-CovidAI eraRallyRecency-wtdbaseline
Horizon
Full historyn=38
Post-Covidn=10
AI eran=4
Rallyn=4
Recency-wtdn=10
2 sessions
-0.1% 47%
-0.3% 40%
-1.1% 25%
-1.1% 25%
-0.8% 45%
5 sessions
-0.0% 50%
+0.8% 60%
-0.3% 25%
-0.3% 25%
-0.2% 46%
8 sessions
+0.8% 62%
+1.8% 67%
-2.1% 33%
-2.1% 33%
-2.1% 12%
11 sessions
+1.5% 68%
+2.7% 67%
-1.2% 33%
-1.2% 33%
-1.2% 12%
15 sessions
+0.6% 59%
+2.4% 78%
+0.5% 100%
+0.5% 100%
+0.5% 98%
21 sessions
+1.2% 57%
+4.5% 56%
-1.1% 33%
-1.1% 33%
-1.1% 12%
Regime delta: the recency-weighted 21-day median is -2.3 pts vs the full-history read — the recent regime is markedly weaker here.
Headline is recency-weighted (faster 9-month half-life) over 10 post-2021 events. Regime windows: AI era from Apr 1 2023 · Rally from the Oct 30 2023 bottom. Tight regimes carry few events (see the n per column) — read them with the recency-weighted line, which keeps sample by fading rather than cutting.
Forward 21d · median
-1.1%
mean -1.5%
% positive
12%
10 events
vs baseline
-2.0 pts
base +1.0% / 59% pos
Range
-8% … +11%
25th -6.6% · 75th +8.5%
Path · max-gain
+5.7%
median MFE in window
Path · max-draw
-1.2%
median MAE in window
Every event · outcome over time
Each dot is one de-clustered event at its date; height is the forward 21-session return. Gold-ringed = post-2021 — if there are few gold rings, the signal is a pre-Covid-regime artifact.
By decade: 2000s 102010s 172020s 10
The event log
Event date
Stretch
Fwd 21d
Max gain
Max draw
2005-04-06
-5.1%
-1.9%
+0.0%
-5.4%
2005-08-24
-6.1%
-5.2%
+0.7%
-6.7%
2006-01-17
-5.2%
+4.3%
+4.3%
-0.5%
2006-07-13
-6.2%
+1.2%
+1.7%
-2.6%
2006-12-01
-4.6%
+4.5%
+4.5%
-0.5%
2007-07-27
-4.7%
-4.1%
+5.4%
-5.6%
2007-09-26
-4.8%
+1.3%
+8.7%
+0.0%
2008-10-07
-6.8%
-1.3%
+2.4%
-9.4%
2009-01-08
-5.1%
-4.1%
+1.4%
-9.7%
2009-03-11
-6.9%
+6.7%
+13.4%
+0.0%
2010-05-20
-4.8%
-0.5%
+0.8%
-2.5%
2011-02-24
-4.8%
+1.2%
+1.8%
-0.7%
2011-08-03
-4.8%
+3.4%
+4.8%
-4.9%
2012-04-25
-5.1%
+14.2%
+14.2%
+0.0%
2012-11-15
-7.0%
+1.3%
+5.8%
-1.0%
2013-06-20
-4.6%
+6.6%
+6.9%
+0.0%
2014-01-27
-4.9%
+0.8%
+2.2%
-2.0%
2015-03-11
-5.3%
-0.0%
+3.2%
-0.2%
2015-05-19
-5.0%
-4.5%
+0.0%
-5.9%
2015-08-19
-5.4%
-7.6%
+0.0%
-8.0%
2015-10-19
-12.1%
+1.8%
+1.8%
-4.1%
2016-05-18
-5.8%
+12.4%
+12.9%
+0.0%
2016-10-07
-5.1%
+1.6%
+1.9%
-1.9%
2017-01-27
-5.4%
+8.0%
+10.2%
+0.0%
2018-02-20
-5.9%
-5.7%
+0.0%
-6.8%
2018-04-20
-6.8%
-2.2%
+1.7%
-4.5%
2018-12-14
-4.8%
+4.9%
+4.9%
-6.6%
2020-02-27
-6.0%
-0.3%
+11.0%
-5.8%
2021-02-01
-4.7%
-8.4%
+5.7%
-8.4%
2021-10-01
-5.0%
+9.3%
+9.5%
-1.0%
2021-12-01
-5.1%
+5.9%
+6.7%
-1.2%
2022-02-14
-5.1%
+8.5%
+8.8%
-0.3%
2022-05-17
-10.1%
-8.2%
+0.0%
-9.3%
2022-07-26
-7.4%
+11.1%
+14.9%
+0.0%
2023-12-07
-4.9%
+4.5%
+4.5%
-1.0%
2025-03-10
-8.0%
-6.6%
+2.5%
-6.6%
2026-05-22
-4.8%
-1.1%
+0.6%
-6.0%
Read it honestly. The recency-weighted read leans on 10 post-2021 events (half-life 9mo); the full-history column carries 38. The regime delta shows how far recent behaviour has drifted from the long base rate. De-clustered by a 42-session gap; overlapping windows remain. A context gauge, not a mechanical signal.
Computed live from adjusted-close history (yfinance). Forward return = close-to-close over 21 sessions from each event. MFE/MAE = max favorable / adverse excursion within the window. Educational research, not investment advice.