XLK/XLF · > 6% below its 65-day MA · forward 21 sessions · recency window from 2021-01-01 · half-life 9mo · de-clustered ≥42d
Now: -8.6% vs the 65-day MA · 3th pctile (2021+) · 2th all-time
Close 3.08 · MA 3.37 · IN BREACH now · all-time range -24.3% … +43.9%
Forward returns by regime
Median forward return (% positive) at 2 / 5 / 8 / 11 / 15 / 21 sessions, conditioned on each market regime — and the recency-weighted read (the headline). Watch how the shape shifts as the window tightens toward now.
Full historyPost-CovidAI eraRallyRecency-wtdbaseline
Horizon
Full historyn=25
Post-Covidn=12
AI eran=6
Rallyn=6
Recency-wtdn=12
2 sessions
+0.7% 72%
+0.8% 83%
+1.8% 100%
+1.8% 100%
+0.5% 99%
5 sessions
+2.1% 88%
+3.3% 100%
+3.0% 100%
+3.0% 100%
+2.2% 100%
8 sessions
+1.3% 84%
+3.9% 83%
+2.6% 83%
+2.6% 83%
+0.9% 54%
11 sessions
+1.1% 76%
+3.2% 83%
+4.4% 83%
+4.4% 83%
+0.5% 54%
15 sessions
+2.7% 75%
+3.1% 100%
+6.0% 100%
+6.0% 100%
+6.0% 100%
21 sessions
+2.1% 71%
+6.5% 82%
+6.5% 80%
+6.5% 80%
+6.5% 75%
Regime delta: the recency-weighted 21-day median is +4.4 pts vs the full-history read — the recent regime is markedly stronger here.
Headline is recency-weighted (faster 9-month half-life) over 12 post-2021 events. Regime windows: AI era from Apr 1 2023 · Rally from the Oct 30 2023 bottom. Tight regimes carry few events (see the n per column) — read them with the recency-weighted line, which keeps sample by fading rather than cutting.
Forward 21d · median
+6.5%
mean +4.3%
% positive
75%
12 events
vs baseline
+5.9 pts
base +0.6% / 56% pos
Range
-3% … +9%
25th +2.1% · 75th +7.3%
Path · max-gain
+7.2%
median MFE in window
Path · max-draw
-0.6%
median MAE in window
Every event · outcome over time
Each dot is one de-clustered event at its date; height is the forward 21-session return. Gold-ringed = post-2021 — if there are few gold rings, the signal is a pre-Covid-regime artifact.
By decade: 2000s 72010s 52020s 12
The event log
Event date
Stretch
Fwd 21d
Max gain
Max draw
2006-05-16
-6.6%
+0.8%
+1.5%
-2.8%
2006-07-20
-6.5%
+5.0%
+5.0%
-0.5%
2008-01-23
-7.1%
+0.9%
+5.3%
-2.8%
2008-09-03
-7.4%
-5.5%
+7.2%
-8.5%
2009-04-09
-9.3%
-11.2%
+5.7%
-16.6%
2009-06-10
-6.5%
+5.8%
+5.8%
-1.3%
2009-08-10
-7.9%
+2.0%
+3.4%
-1.2%
2012-10-18
-7.1%
-1.5%
+0.3%
-1.5%
2013-01-25
-6.2%
+1.2%
+1.4%
-0.4%
2016-11-10
-10.6%
-4.4%
+0.6%
-5.8%
2017-07-03
-6.2%
+4.8%
+6.9%
+0.0%
2018-11-19
-6.7%
+7.0%
+10.4%
+0.0%
2020-11-10
-8.0%
-0.7%
+3.6%
-2.6%
2021-01-12
-8.9%
+7.3%
+10.1%
-0.6%
2021-03-15
-9.6%
+4.0%
+5.8%
-2.3%
2021-05-13
-9.5%
+8.1%
+8.1%
-0.3%
2022-01-25
-6.9%
+2.1%
+5.3%
-2.5%
2022-09-15
-6.4%
-3.2%
+3.9%
-3.2%
2023-01-05
-6.8%
+9.3%
+11.4%
+0.0%
2024-04-19
-6.9%
+7.2%
+7.2%
-0.3%
2024-07-30
-8.6%
+2.1%
+7.6%
-0.8%
2024-11-27
-6.4%
+7.2%
+8.5%
+0.0%
2025-02-03
-6.4%
-0.7%
+5.8%
-4.9%
2025-04-03
-9.4%
+6.5%
+6.8%
-0.3%
Read it honestly. The recency-weighted read leans on 12 post-2021 events (half-life 9mo); the full-history column carries 25. The regime delta shows how far recent behaviour has drifted from the long base rate. De-clustered by a 42-session gap; overlapping windows remain. A context gauge, not a mechanical signal.
Computed live from adjusted-close history (yfinance). Forward return = close-to-close over 21 sessions from each event. MFE/MAE = max favorable / adverse excursion within the window. Educational research, not investment advice.