XLV · > +6% above its 65-day MA · forward 21 sessions · recency window from 2021-01-01 · half-life 9mo · de-clustered ≥42d
Now: +6.0% vs the 65-day MA · 91th pctile (2021+) · 92th all-time
Close 162.55 · MA 153.40 · IN BREACH now · all-time range -24.2% … +11.0%
Forward returns by regime
Median forward return (% positive) at 2 / 5 / 8 / 11 / 15 / 21 sessions, conditioned on each market regime — and the recency-weighted read (the headline). Watch how the shape shifts as the window tightens toward now.
Full historyPost-CovidAI eraRallyRecency-wtdbaseline
Horizon
Full historyn=42
Post-Covidn=11
AI eran=5
Rallyn=5
Recency-wtdn=11
2 sessions
+0.3% 60%
+0.2% 55%
-0.1% 40%
-0.1% 40%
-0.1% 27%
5 sessions
+0.0% 50%
-0.2% 45%
+0.7% 60%
+0.7% 60%
+0.7% 67%
8 sessions
-0.0% 48%
-0.6% 36%
-0.9% 40%
-0.9% 40%
-0.9% 46%
11 sessions
-0.1% 48%
-0.8% 36%
-0.8% 20%
-0.8% 20%
-0.8% 6%
15 sessions
+0.0% 50%
-0.7% 36%
-0.1% 40%
-0.1% 40%
-0.1% 46%
21 sessions
+0.5% 57%
+0.6% 64%
+0.6% 80%
+0.6% 80%
+0.6% 91%
Regime delta: the recency-weighted 21-day median is +0.1 pts vs the full-history read — little regime change.
Headline is recency-weighted (faster 9-month half-life) over 11 post-2021 events. Regime windows: AI era from Apr 1 2023 · Rally from the Oct 30 2023 bottom. Tight regimes carry few events (see the n per column) — read them with the recency-weighted line, which keeps sample by fading rather than cutting.
Forward 21d · median
+0.6%
mean +1.7%
% positive
91%
11 events
vs baseline
-0.6 pts
base +1.2% / 63% pos
Range
-11% … +4%
25th -1.5% · 75th +0.8%
Path · max-gain
+1.6%
median MFE in window
Path · max-draw
-1.8%
median MAE in window
Every event · outcome over time
Each dot is one de-clustered event at its date; height is the forward 21-session return. Gold-ringed = post-2021 — if there are few gold rings, the signal is a pre-Covid-regime artifact.
By decade: 2000s 72010s 212020s 14
The event log
Event date
Stretch
Fwd 21d
Max gain
Max draw
2006-08-28
+5.7%
+1.6%
+2.1%
-0.8%
2007-04-23
+5.7%
+1.2%
+1.6%
-0.2%
2008-08-06
+6.0%
-3.9%
+1.4%
-3.9%
2009-02-05
+5.9%
-19.5%
+0.8%
-19.5%
2009-05-29
+6.9%
+3.2%
+3.2%
-3.8%
2009-07-29
+9.0%
+3.0%
+3.0%
-1.9%
2009-11-23
+6.1%
+3.1%
+3.5%
+0.0%
2010-09-24
+5.9%
+2.4%
+2.5%
-1.5%
2011-04-26
+6.2%
+2.7%
+5.0%
+0.0%
2011-10-27
+6.0%
-4.7%
+0.1%
-7.2%
2012-01-03
+6.2%
+2.5%
+2.9%
-0.5%
2012-10-04
+6.1%
-2.3%
+0.5%
-2.7%
2013-01-25
+6.2%
+0.4%
+1.9%
-0.4%
2013-03-27
+6.5%
+4.4%
+5.8%
+0.0%
2013-05-28
+6.6%
-3.2%
+0.0%
-5.2%
2013-11-15
+5.8%
-1.2%
+2.1%
-1.2%
2014-02-18
+5.9%
+1.2%
+2.3%
-0.6%
2014-07-02
+5.8%
-1.8%
+0.4%
-2.7%
2014-10-30
+6.2%
+3.6%
+3.9%
+0.0%
2015-03-20
+6.2%
-0.9%
+0.0%
-4.2%
2016-04-20
+6.1%
-3.2%
+0.8%
-3.2%
2016-08-01
+5.8%
-3.6%
+0.0%
-3.8%
2017-02-23
+6.0%
+0.2%
+2.9%
+0.0%
2017-06-21
+6.0%
+1.5%
+1.7%
-1.2%
2018-01-17
+6.5%
-3.7%
+3.9%
-8.1%
2018-07-25
+5.8%
+2.9%
+3.0%
-1.0%
2018-09-24
+6.0%
-4.4%
+1.2%
-5.0%
2019-11-15
+6.6%
+4.5%
+4.6%
-0.3%
2020-01-17
+6.9%
-0.4%
+0.2%
-5.1%
2020-04-27
+7.0%
-1.1%
+0.0%
-3.7%
2020-07-17
+5.7%
+1.5%
+1.5%
-0.7%
2021-01-07
+6.9%
-0.9%
+1.4%
-2.1%
2021-04-21
+6.6%
+0.7%
+0.7%
-1.7%
2021-08-03
+6.8%
+0.8%
+2.0%
-1.8%
2021-12-23
+6.0%
-8.0%
+1.6%
-8.0%
2022-04-07
+7.3%
-11.0%
+0.6%
-11.0%
2022-11-22
+6.4%
+0.6%
+3.2%
-0.6%
2024-01-02
+7.0%
+2.5%
+2.5%
-0.2%
2024-08-30
+5.9%
-2.2%
+0.0%
-2.6%
2025-10-01
+6.3%
+0.6%
+2.0%
-1.1%
2025-12-01
+7.9%
+0.1%
+0.9%
-3.4%
2026-06-26
+8.7%
+4.3%
+4.3%
-1.3%
Read it honestly. The recency-weighted read leans on 11 post-2021 events (half-life 9mo); the full-history column carries 42. The regime delta shows how far recent behaviour has drifted from the long base rate. De-clustered by a 42-session gap; overlapping windows remain. A context gauge, not a mechanical signal.
Computed live from adjusted-close history (yfinance). Forward return = close-to-close over 21 sessions from each event. MFE/MAE = max favorable / adverse excursion within the window. Educational research, not investment advice.