Factor leadership · live
Who’s actually leading — and which way it’s rotating
Relative strength (each factor vs the S&P 500), the direction it’s rotating, and what that
state has historically meant for the next quarter. Trend and rotation carry information a single week doesn’t. As of 23 October 2026. Click any factor for its return chart.
| Factor | Trend | 3M | 6M | 12M rel. S&P | Next quarter, when here (base rate) |
|---|
| Value Factor | Lagging | -1.6% | +10.8% | +35.1% | -1.1% median · 33% beat · n=1148 |
| FCF Yield | Leading | +1.8% | +3.6% | +8.4% | -1.0% median · 45% beat · n=556 |
| SP Momentum | Lagging | -3.1% | +1.9% | +4.3% | +0.5% median · 56% beat · n=565 |
| Min Vol | Leading | +0.8% | +0.8% | -3.8% | -0.9% median · 38% beat · n=723 |
| Buyback | Leading | -2.3% | +0.4% | -1.9% | -0.9% median · 34% beat · n=858 |
| Momentum | Lagging | -2.7% | +0.3% | +3.8% | +0.2% median · 52% beat · n=743 |
| SP Value | Leading | -0.8% | +0.2% | +1.1% | -0.8% median · 41% beat · n=640 |
| Equal Weight | Leading | -2.9% | +0.2% | +0.9% | -0.4% median · 41% beat · n=737 |
| Quality | Lagging | -2.4% | -0.4% | -1.0% | -0.1% median · 47% beat · n=936 |
| Size | Improving | -3.2% | -0.9% | -1.6% | -0.4% median · 43% beat · n=832 |
| High Dividend | Improving | -2.8% | -1.9% | +3.2% | -0.8% median · 38% beat · n=858 |
| Low Beta | Improving | -5.3% | -5.8% | -7.2% | -1.8% median · 36% beat · n=916 |
Base rate = every prior time this factor sat in its current rotation quadrant, the
median forward-quarter return relative to the S&P and how often it beat it. Odds from history — not a forecast.