Alpha Query — MA Stretch Monitor

Index Distance From 21 / 65 / 130 / 200-Day Moving Averages

Green = above the average (extended up), red = below (extended down). Read across a row to see how an index sits across tactical-to-primary trend windows; read down a column to compare size/style cohorts at one horizon. Click any cell to open that index's stretch-history chart.

Participation — % of Top Names Above Each MA

Healthy regimes show >50% across all four windows. An index above its 200d while fewer than half its members are = a narrow, fragile tape.

Top 100 Stocks by Market Cap — Distance From MAs (click any header to sort)

Ticker	Last	21d %	65d %	130d %	200d %	Comp Z
NVDA	213.44	-4.4%	-3.3%	-0.4%	+4.6%	-0.9
MSFT	525.24	-0.8%	+3.7%	+15.8%	+20.3%	+0.6
AAPL	349.32	+2.4%	+6.8%	+10.9%	+18.1%	+0.7
GOOGL	285.34	-15.4%	-16.8%	-19.5%	-16.2%	-2.5
AMZN	246.39	-3.3%	-4.4%	-3.3%	+1.2%	-1.0
META	630.58	-9.7%	-2.6%	+0.5%	-0.1%	-0.9
AVGO	344.08	-0.8%	-5.7%	-10.1%	-6.2%	-1.2
TSLA	405.68	+7.3%	+12.8%	+7.2%	+5.2%	+0.4
BRK-B	544.23	+3.5%	+5.9%	+8.7%	+9.8%	+1.1
LLY	1,376.12	+12.0%	+15.4%	+20.2%	+26.5%	+1.4
JPM	343.87	+2.9%	-0.6%	+3.5%	+7.4%	-0.4
WMT	121.14	+5.8%	+9.6%	+5.4%	+2.6%	+0.3
V	410.24	+4.7%	+8.9%	+15.4%	+20.3%	+1.6
ORCL	139.62	+3.2%	-1.8%	-10.5%	-10.6%	-0.3
MA	637.14	+6.3%	+9.7%	+17.1%	+19.4%	+2.0
NFLX	62.17	-8.4%	-15.5%	-19.3%	-23.9%	-1.7
XOM	182.24	+4.6%	+10.5%	+17.0%	+19.0%	+1.3
COST	989.63	+2.0%	+4.8%	+3.1%	+2.1%	-0.0
JNJ	274.79	+5.7%	+4.1%	+9.4%	+12.1%	+0.8
HD	324.80	+7.1%	+2.9%	+1.6%	-1.8%	+0.5
PG	159.06	+3.3%	+7.7%	+8.8%	+8.4%	+1.7
ABBV	289.51	+4.1%	+10.0%	+18.3%	+23.8%	+1.3
BAC	51.67	-1.1%	-11.1%	-8.9%	-5.3%	-1.6
KO	92.34	+2.1%	+4.1%	+9.3%	+13.6%	+0.8
UNH	406.00	+2.7%	+3.6%	+2.8%	+13.0%	+0.5
PLTR	194.55	-1.3%	+7.7%	+24.1%	+26.7%	-0.2
CRM	230.98	-2.8%	+1.4%	+15.5%	+16.8%	+0.4
CVX	230.31	+4.9%	+10.6%	+18.0%	+20.7%	+1.6
TMUS	148.55	-5.1%	-12.5%	-16.2%	-20.0%	-1.8
WFC	85.00	+3.4%	-0.0%	+2.2%	+2.3%	-0.3
CSCO	109.02	-2.0%	-2.2%	-2.5%	+8.6%	-0.7
PM	205.68	+3.5%	+7.5%	+11.1%	+14.8%	+0.5
IBM	254.42	+7.6%	+8.7%	+5.0%	+2.9%	+0.3
ABT	103.93	+2.6%	-1.0%	+6.4%	+3.4%	+0.3
GE	312.31	+2.7%	-5.1%	-5.2%	-3.0%	-1.0
MRK	147.95	+2.5%	+3.3%	+13.0%	+18.1%	+0.6
LIN	498.97	+0.9%	+3.4%	+0.5%	+1.8%	-0.1
AMD	570.38	-1.5%	+6.9%	+12.2%	+39.4%	-0.0
NOW	111.72	-22.1%	-17.2%	-5.7%	-3.0%	-1.4
MS	192.32	+3.3%	-5.0%	-6.1%	-0.5%	-0.9
AXP	323.52	+3.7%	+0.4%	-0.4%	-0.3%	-0.3
ISRG	447.87	+4.9%	+13.0%	+10.7%	+3.3%	+0.7
GS	931.06	+4.1%	-3.8%	-6.0%	-2.2%	-1.1
INTU	329.72	+4.4%	+2.4%	+3.5%	-8.1%	+0.3
ACN	244.00	+9.2%	+26.0%	+39.3%	+29.7%	+2.4
DIS	110.53	+1.9%	+4.1%	+7.2%	+7.3%	+0.4
TXN	309.64	+7.2%	+12.4%	+8.6%	+20.1%	+0.8
RTX	200.77	+6.0%	-0.1%	+4.1%	+3.3%	-0.2
QCOM	182.82	+2.7%	+5.5%	-1.2%	+8.6%	+0.0
BKNG	149.83	-5.2%	-16.8%	-14.6%	-15.1%	-1.7
ADBE	246.29	-0.2%	-3.9%	+0.8%	-1.8%	+0.3
CAT	658.30	-13.1%	-17.6%	-23.0%	-18.4%	-2.4
T	20.98	-7.8%	-13.0%	-10.9%	-14.2%	-2.2
VZ	43.69	-1.3%	-6.3%	-4.2%	-3.9%	-1.3
PFE	29.73	+2.6%	+6.2%	+12.4%	+13.1%	+1.3
AMGN	459.35	+7.6%	+10.3%	+20.5%	+23.8%	+1.6
SPGI	458.23	+8.5%	+9.4%	+11.0%	+10.2%	+1.4
BSX	41.79	-4.3%	-9.2%	-12.1%	-26.4%	-1.0
UBER	65.33	-4.9%	-9.3%	-9.8%	-11.0%	-1.1
BLK	1,171.97	+6.0%	+5.6%	+9.4%	+11.1%	+0.7
C	126.28	+0.9%	-3.9%	-4.2%	+0.3%	-1.2
NEE	82.23	+4.0%	+1.0%	-3.1%	-4.8%	-0.2
HON	221.53	+3.8%	+1.8%	-1.1%	-3.5%	-0.1
SYK	311.73	+7.1%	+2.8%	+1.4%	-3.3%	+0.4
TJX	141.32	-0.0%	+0.8%	-4.5%	-6.2%	-1.0
LOW	203.77	+6.6%	+1.9%	-1.9%	-8.8%	+0.2
DHR	236.93	+5.3%	+10.5%	+19.3%	+18.2%	+1.6
PGR	228.48	+4.0%	+5.8%	+7.9%	+9.3%	+0.5
GILD	161.54	+5.8%	+10.3%	+17.3%	+16.8%	+1.0
BA	173.87	-6.9%	-15.0%	-18.4%	-20.0%	-1.5
UNP	299.26	+4.5%	+3.7%	+6.6%	+11.6%	+0.8
ETN	395.28	-2.8%	-5.6%	-3.9%	-0.0%	-0.9
ADP	285.23	+1.4%	+3.8%	+13.9%	+20.0%	+0.9
COP	149.24	+6.3%	+12.6%	+20.8%	+24.3%	+1.7
MU	941.71	-2.6%	-2.1%	+1.8%	+26.6%	-0.6
ADI	428.86	+5.1%	+11.3%	+9.2%	+15.9%	+0.6
LRCX	256.55	-10.5%	-14.5%	-17.6%	-9.6%	-1.5
KLAC	168.35	-4.7%	-7.9%	-14.6%	-7.4%	-1.4
PANW	375.40	-2.3%	+1.3%	+15.7%	+39.6%	+0.2
CRWD	258.45	+0.8%	+11.2%	+29.2%	+55.2%	+0.5
ANET	184.91	-4.8%	-5.1%	+3.3%	+12.1%	-0.8
MDT	96.63	+5.1%	+6.8%	+14.1%	+11.2%	+1.3
VRTX	540.18	+5.6%	+4.1%	+10.5%	+12.9%	+0.8
REGN	815.27	+4.9%	+3.2%	+12.8%	+10.9%	+0.7
CB	358.77	+3.0%	+4.5%	+6.2%	+8.0%	+0.5
SCHW	89.78	-4.1%	-12.5%	-8.4%	-7.7%	-1.7
SO	93.07	+4.7%	+4.9%	+2.2%	+1.8%	+0.4
DE	660.39	+1.7%	+1.8%	+7.3%	+9.8%	+0.2
MO	75.67	+4.7%	+9.9%	+9.0%	+12.7%	+0.8
BMY	60.64	+0.8%	-3.5%	+1.5%	+3.1%	-0.1
PLD	127.92	-0.0%	-4.9%	-7.3%	-6.1%	-0.8
DUK	125.49	+4.9%	+4.6%	+2.8%	+2.1%	+0.4
APH	83.23	+1.2%	+1.9%	+6.8%	+10.7%	-0.4
CME	294.67	+3.0%	+6.8%	+9.9%	+6.4%	+0.7
ICE	165.20	+5.2%	+5.9%	+10.4%	+7.5%	+0.8
ELV	418.89	+0.1%	+3.5%	+5.3%	+13.3%	+0.5
MCD	255.15	+5.7%	+0.9%	-3.2%	-9.0%	+0.1
KKR	95.87	+6.3%	-3.7%	-2.3%	-3.0%	-0.1

Click a ticker to chart its full stretch history, or click a specific MA cell (e.g. CME's 21d %) to open that exact window. Cells shaded green (above) / red (below) by magnitude. Composite Z ≥ |2| (red) flags a 3-year statistical extreme. Default order = market cap.

Top 50 ETFs by AUM — Distance From MAs (click any header to sort)

Ticker	Last	21d %	65d %	130d %	200d %	Comp Z
SPY	769.26	-0.2%	+0.4%	+2.3%	+6.0%	-0.6
IVV	772.69	-0.2%	+0.4%	+2.3%	+6.0%	-0.6
VOO	707.09	-0.2%	+0.4%	+2.3%	+6.0%	-0.6
VTI	378.21	+0.0%	+0.3%	+2.1%	+5.8%	-0.6
QQQ	715.36	-2.2%	-1.0%	-0.0%	+5.5%	-0.9
VUG	87.76	-2.3%	-1.2%	+0.5%	+4.7%	-0.9
VEA	70.35	+0.5%	-1.7%	-0.6%	+1.8%	-1.0
IEFA	97.07	+0.6%	-1.6%	-0.1%	+1.6%	-0.9
VTV	228.39	+2.7%	+2.6%	+5.1%	+8.4%	+0.5
BND	71.29	+1.0%	+0.2%	-0.4%	-0.7%	-0.4
AGG	96.03	+1.0%	+0.2%	-0.5%	-0.8%	-0.4
VGT	122.17	-1.6%	+0.4%	+3.5%	+12.0%	-0.4
IWF	121.26	-2.6%	-1.8%	-1.2%	+1.6%	-1.1
IJH	74.14	+1.4%	-0.5%	-0.4%	+2.0%	-0.5
VXUS	83.53	-0.6%	-2.6%	-1.7%	+0.6%	-1.4
IEMG	76.16	-3.5%	-5.3%	-5.3%	-1.9%	-1.9
IJR	141.80	+2.8%	-0.1%	+0.4%	+3.9%	-0.1
GLD	367.65	-2.5%	-6.2%	-6.7%	-11.0%	-1.7
VIG	248.58	+3.2%	+3.4%	+5.1%	+7.7%	+0.7
VO	82.20	+1.8%	+1.2%	+2.8%	+5.7%	-0.0
IWM	284.53	+2.5%	-1.1%	-1.2%	+2.5%	-0.4
VWO	56.50	-3.4%	-5.1%	-4.7%	-2.9%	-2.2
XLK	188.62	-1.8%	+0.0%	+2.6%	+11.6%	-0.5
BNDX	47.29	+0.5%	+0.2%	-0.2%	-0.3%	-0.5
SCHD	35.42	+4.2%	+4.3%	+7.6%	+11.0%	+1.1
VB	294.29	+2.0%	-0.0%	+0.5%	+3.3%	-0.3
IWD	260.30	+2.1%	+2.2%	+5.5%	+9.9%	+0.4
RSP	219.40	+2.4%	+1.7%	+3.6%	+6.3%	+0.2
VYM	164.34	+2.8%	+1.8%	+3.2%	+5.6%	+0.1
ITOT	167.89	-0.0%	+0.2%	+2.0%	+5.8%	-0.6
IVW	138.28	-2.4%	-1.6%	+0.3%	+5.0%	-1.0
VEU	81.75	-0.5%	-2.4%	-1.5%	+0.9%	-1.3
TLT	81.22	+2.4%	+0.8%	-1.2%	-2.4%	+0.1
VT	157.84	-0.3%	-0.8%	+0.6%	+3.8%	-1.0
MUB	103.82	+1.6%	+0.5%	-0.6%	-0.9%	+0.0
LQD	104.04	+1.0%	-0.1%	-1.2%	-1.7%	-0.6
IWB	420.48	-0.1%	+0.3%	+2.2%	+5.9%	-0.6
QUAL	224.63	-0.3%	+0.6%	+2.8%	+6.0%	-0.4
DIA	522.27	+0.7%	-0.3%	+1.2%	+3.8%	-0.5
XLF	56.97	+3.4%	+1.3%	+4.2%	+6.7%	+0.2
VCSH	77.74	+0.4%	+0.2%	+0.2%	+0.2%	-0.8
IXUS	93.61	-0.5%	-2.5%	-1.5%	+0.9%	-1.3
MBB	91.54	+1.3%	+0.3%	-0.5%	-0.8%	-0.3
JEPI	57.86	+1.7%	+2.0%	+3.7%	+4.1%	+0.5
DGRO	80.94	+3.5%	+3.5%	+5.8%	+8.5%	+0.8
USMV	102.78	+1.6%	+2.6%	+5.1%	+6.6%	+0.7
VV	354.47	-0.3%	+0.3%	+2.3%	+6.1%	-0.6
EFA	104.15	+0.7%	-1.5%	-0.0%	+1.7%	-0.9
GOVT	22.21	+0.9%	+0.3%	-0.2%	-0.6%	-0.2
SCHF	27.31	+0.6%	-1.7%	-0.6%	+1.9%	-1.0
MTUM	299.26	-2.5%	-2.6%	-3.1%	+3.5%	-1.2
VLUE	197.84	+0.5%	-0.4%	+2.1%	+11.5%	-0.4
SIZE	181.92	+2.0%	+1.1%	+2.7%	+5.5%	+0.0
EEM	62.54	-3.4%	-5.3%	-5.4%	-1.8%	-1.8
EWJ	94.86	-1.6%	-1.6%	+0.8%	+3.7%	-0.9
FXI	32.58	-2.4%	-5.8%	-6.1%	-8.4%	-1.0
INDA	47.37	+1.1%	-2.1%	-2.4%	-3.7%	-0.4
SLV	47.30	-9.0%	-16.0%	-19.7%	-26.6%	-1.6
DBC	33.50	+0.6%	+4.9%	+9.5%	+14.8%	+0.7
USO	165.52	+6.0%	+15.2%	+21.7%	+34.0%	+1.0
UNG	9.27	-10.8%	-10.2%	-13.5%	-17.2%	-0.6
DBA	27.16	-3.3%	-4.0%	-2.6%	-0.7%	-1.5
HYG	77.53	+0.5%	-0.7%	-0.8%	-0.5%	-1.3
EMB	92.16	+1.0%	-0.6%	-1.3%	-1.1%	-1.0
IEF	91.09	+1.2%	+0.0%	-0.9%	-1.5%	-0.3

Click a ticker or MA cell to open its stretch-history chart. Product ETFs (broad, sector, bond, international, commodity); leveraged/inverse excluded. Default order = AUM.

Top 100 Stocks — 10 most overbought & oversold

⬇ 10 Most OVERSOLD stocks (washed out) — by composite Z

Ticker	vs 200d	Comp Z
GOOGL	-16.2%	-2.5
CAT	-18.4%	-2.4
T	-14.2%	-2.2
TMUS	-20.0%	-1.8
NFLX	-23.9%	-1.7
BKNG	-15.1%	-1.7
SCHW	-7.7%	-1.7
BAC	-5.3%	-1.6
BA	-20.0%	-1.5
LRCX	-9.6%	-1.5

⬆ 10 Most OVERBOUGHT stocks (extended) — by composite Z

Ticker	vs 200d	Comp Z
ACN	+29.7%	+2.4
MA	+19.4%	+2.0
COP	+24.3%	+1.7
PG	+8.4%	+1.7
AMGN	+23.8%	+1.6
V	+20.3%	+1.6
DHR	+18.2%	+1.6
CVX	+20.7%	+1.6
LLY	+26.5%	+1.4
SPGI	+10.2%	+1.4

Top 50 ETFs — 5 most overbought & oversold

⬇ 5 Most OVERSOLD ETFs — by composite Z

Ticker	vs 200d	Comp Z
VWO	-2.9%	-2.2
IEMG	-1.9%	-1.9
EEM	-1.8%	-1.8
GLD	-11.0%	-1.7
SLV	-26.6%	-1.6

⬆ 5 Most OVERBOUGHT ETFs — by composite Z

Ticker	vs 200d	Comp Z
SCHD	+11.0%	+1.1
USO	+34.0%	+1.0
DGRO	+8.5%	+0.8
VIG	+7.7%	+0.7
USMV	+6.6%	+0.7

Click any ticker to chart its stretch history and its forward-return spaghetti from prior times it hit this same extreme. Ranked by composite Z (mean of the four MA-distance Z-scores vs 3-yr history). Negative = oversold / washed out (bounce candidates); positive = overbought / extended (fade or trail-stop candidates). |Z| ≥ 2 ≈ more stretched than ~97.5% of the past three years. Refreshes with every rebuild. Extension is a positioning gauge, not a timing trigger — pair with the Snapback Lab for forward odds.

🔎 Stretch Screen — candidates at a 95th / 5th-percentile MA stretch, ranked by their forward returns from this location (2023 → current only)

Only names currently sitting at a location extreme — top 5% (stretched high) or bottom 5% (stretched low) of their distance-from-MA distribution since 2023. For each, the table shows the forward 5 / 10 / 21-day return (median · win-rate) from prior visits to that same extreme in the 2023→current regime, and the Play: Fade / Bounce = mean-reversion (forward runs against the stretch), Ride / Break = the study says go with it. Edge★ = |21-day forward median| × sample × win-conviction — the sort key. Click a ticker for its history + snapback.

21-Day MA · 26 names at the extreme

#	Ticker	Class	Dist vs MA	Pctile	Fwd 5d	Fwd 10d	Fwd 21d	n	Play	Edge★
1	META	Stock	-9.7%	4th	+2.5% · 62%	+5.5% · 71%	+8.0% · 83%	42	Bounce ▲	6.70
2	GOOGL	Stock	-15.4%	0th	+3.1% · 82%	+3.2% · 76%	+6.2% · 64%	45	Bounce ▲	4.03
3	VWO	ETF	-3.4%	4th	+1.1% · 74%	+1.8% · 67%	+4.6% · 81%	43	Bounce ▲	3.76
4	MCD	Stock	+5.7%	99th	+0.1% · 57%	+1.6% · 81%	+4.1% · 79%	42	Ride ▲	3.25
5	T	Stock	-7.8%	2th	+0.4% · 59%	-1.6% · 38%	-4.7% · 31%	39	Break ▼	3.20
6	DBA	ETF	-3.4%	4th	+1.1% · 72%	+1.0% · 74%	+3.8% · 76%	46	Bounce ▲	2.90
7	CAT	Stock	-13.1%	0th	+1.2% · 68%	+2.6% · 66%	+3.1% · 76%	38	Bounce ▲	2.25
8	LLY	Stock	+12.0%	97th	+1.6% · 72%	+1.9% · 68%	+2.6% · 70%	47	Ride ▲	1.80
9	MA	Stock	+6.3%	98th	+0.4% · 63%	+0.6% · 63%	+2.8% · 68%	38	Ride ▲	1.80
10	VIG	ETF	+3.2%	96th	+0.1% · 51%	+0.7% · 72%	+2.1% · 85%	47	Ride ▲	1.79
11	SLV	ETF	-9.1%	4th	+3.3% · 67%	+4.9% · 65%	+2.8% · 63%	43	Bounce ▲	1.75
12	NOW	Stock	-22.1%	0th	+3.5% · 70%	+2.0% · 57%	+2.6% · 55%	47	Bounce ▲	1.45
13	NFLX	Stock	-8.4%	5th	-0.6% · 40%	+1.0% · 60%	+2.5% · 56%	43	Bounce ▲	1.38
14	AMGN	Stock	+7.6%	95th	+0.7% · 64%	+0.9% · 57%	-1.7% · 28%	47	Fade ▼	1.23
15	MUB	ETF	+1.6%	96th	+0.7% · 86%	+1.2% · 88%	+1.4% · 81%	42	Ride ▲	1.12
16	DUK	Stock	+4.9%	98th	+0.4% · 54%	+1.4% · 71%	+1.6% · 63%	41	Ride ▲	1.01
17	LRCX	Stock	-10.5%	4th	+5.0% · 65%	+5.1% · 62%	+1.6% · 54%	37	Bounce ▲	0.82
18	SPGI	Stock	+8.5%	98th	+1.0% · 69%	+1.4% · 67%	+1.3% · 64%	39	Ride ▲	0.81
19	ACN	Stock	+9.2%	97th	+0.4% · 58%	+2.6% · 77%	+1.9% · 55%	31	Ride ▲	0.80
20	DGRO	ETF	+3.5%	98th	+0.0% · 54%	+0.2% · 58%	+0.9% · 60%	43	Ride ▲	0.53
21	JNJ	Stock	+5.7%	95th	+0.4% · 58%	+0.3% · 54%	+0.9% · 58%	48	Ride ▲	0.51
22	SO	Stock	+4.8%	95th	+0.9% · 67%	+1.1% · 72%	+0.9% · 56%	39	Ride ▲	0.49
23	HD	Stock	+7.1%	98th	+0.5% · 61%	-0.5% · 46%	+0.5% · 54%	41	Ride ▲	0.28
24	LOW	Stock	+6.6%	97th	-0.5% · 44%	-0.0% · 50%	+0.5% · 52%	46	Ride ▲	0.27
25	SCHD	ETF	+4.2%	98th	+0.3% · 54%	+0.7% · 72%	+0.4% · 62%	39	Ride ▲	0.26
26	SYK	Stock	+7.1%	98th	+0.0% · 54%	+0.1% · 51%	+0.2% · 51%	41	Ride ▲	0.11

200-Day MA · 24 names at the extreme

#	Ticker	Class	Dist vs MA	Pctile	Fwd 5d	Fwd 10d	Fwd 21d	n	Play	Edge★
1	AVGO	Stock	-6.2%	3th	+5.4% · 76%	+10.0% · 97%	+29.8% · 82%	33	Bounce ▲	20.10
2	NFLX	Stock	-23.9%	4th	+1.5% · 54%	+3.3% · 59%	+14.9% · 68%	44	Bounce ▲	10.15
3	GOOGL	Stock	-16.2%	1th	+4.2% · 72%	+5.2% · 87%	+10.2% · 96%	47	Bounce ▲	9.73
4	CAT	Stock	-18.4%	1th	+3.7% · 75%	+6.1% · 78%	+10.7% · 78%	36	Bounce ▲	7.47
5	AMGN	Stock	+23.8%	97th	-0.4% · 47%	-4.2% · 26%	-7.8% · 6%	47	Fade ▼	7.35
6	GE	Stock	-3.0%	4th	+4.2% · 92%	+7.0% · 81%	+11.2% · 92%	26	Bounce ▲	6.72
7	SLV	ETF	-26.6%	0th	+3.3% · 62%	+3.1% · 73%	+11.8% · 85%	26	Bounce ▲	6.48
8	IEMG	ETF	-1.9%	5th	+1.1% · 63%	+3.8% · 74%	+6.2% · 84%	43	Bounce ▲	5.22
9	VWO	ETF	-2.9%	2th	+1.2% · 64%	+3.7% · 76%	+5.8% · 83%	42	Bounce ▲	4.80
10	GLD	ETF	-11.0%	0th	+1.4% · 71%	+1.2% · 68%	+7.4% · 89%	28	Bounce ▲	4.63
11	DHR	Stock	+18.2%	100th	-1.1% · 32%	-1.5% · 22%	-4.4% · 8%	40	Fade ▼	4.10
12	TJX	Stock	-6.2%	4th	-1.0% · 47%	+2.9% · 57%	+7.7% · 70%	30	Bounce ▲	4.02
13	MDT	Stock	+11.2%	97th	-1.5% · 20%	-2.5% · 22%	-4.0% · 4%	46	Fade ▼	3.87
14	COP	Stock	+24.3%	96th	-0.9% · 40%	-1.1% · 45%	-4.2% · 22%	40	Fade ▼	3.23
15	V	Stock	+20.3%	98th	-0.7% · 47%	-0.3% · 47%	-3.5% · 17%	36	Fade ▼	2.59
16	HYG	ETF	-0.5%	4th	+0.8% · 77%	+2.1% · 81%	+4.0% · 92%	26	Bounce ▲	2.42
17	BA	Stock	-20.0%	1th	+0.3% · 56%	+1.3% · 58%	+3.0% · 76%	45	Bounce ▲	2.25
18	ADP	Stock	+20.0%	98th	-0.9% · 37%	-2.2% · 26%	-3.0% · 17%	35	Fade ▼	2.15
19	MA	Stock	+19.4%	100th	-0.3% · 42%	-0.2% · 48%	-2.6% · 40%	40	Fade ▼	1.57
20	TMUS	Stock	-20.0%	1th	+2.3% · 78%	+3.4% · 91%	+3.0% · 62%	32	Bounce ▲	1.49
21	CVX	Stock	+20.6%	96th	+1.7% · 67%	+2.8% · 65%	+2.2% · 56%	43	Ride ▲	1.22
22	PFE	Stock	+13.1%	98th	-2.1% · 19%	-2.4% · 22%	-1.8% · 28%	36	Fade ▼	1.16
23	ABBV	Stock	+23.8%	100th	-0.1% · 47%	+0.3% · 59%	-1.8% · 44%	34	Fade ▼	0.85
24	ACN	Stock	+29.6%	100th	-0.3% · 43%	-0.9% · 40%	+0.3% · 51%	37	Ride ▲	0.15

Forward-return windows overlap (not de-clustered), so treat n as occurrences, not independent trials — a context/odds gauge, not a timing trigger. Percentiles and forward samples are both computed only over 2023→current, so this reflects the current regime, not the 2008–2022 history the Snapback Lab uses. Refreshes every build.

Stretch History — distance from a moving average over time, with the asset's own ±2σ bands

Asset

MA window:

Distance of price from the selected moving average over time. The dashed lines are this asset's historical mean and ±2σ of that distance — when the blue line pokes outside the band, the name was statistically stretched (the same condition the composite Z flags). Switch the MA window to see tactical (21d) vs primary-trend (200d) extension. For forward returns after any stretch level, use the 🎯 Threshold Lab tab.

Forward Returns Under the Current MA Setup — what historically followed this exact configuration

Asset

Signature = price above/below each of the 21/65/130/200-day MAs plus the short-term trend (whether the 21d MA is rising or falling over 10 sessions). We match every prior day in the identical signature and measure forward 5/10/21-day returns. "Edge" = conditional median minus the unconditional baseline. Few matches (n<20, flagged) = treat as anecdote, not signal. Deep history back to 2008 where available.

🎯 Snapback Lab — forward returns when an asset hits a historical stretch extreme

Asset

MA:

Extreme:

"Bottom 5%" = days when price was more below the chosen MA than 95% of the asset's history since 2008 (the most oversold / stretched-down extreme → snapback-up candidate). "Top" = the overbought extreme → snapback-down candidate. The table shows forward 5/10/21-day returns from those days vs the unconditional baseline; "Edge" = conditional median − baseline. The current-percentile banner shows how close the asset is to an extreme right now. Percentiles are in-sample (vs full history) — a ranking/context measure; n<20 (flagged) = anecdote, not signal.

🔔 Fresh 21-Day Crosses — every name that crossed its 21-day MA in the last two sessions

Show:

A cross = price closed on the opposite side of its 21-day MA vs the prior session. Yesterday = the most recent session; 2 days ago = the one before. Trend-aligned (★) = the 65/130/200-day MAs were all already on the new side — i.e. a true Alignment Cross (the high-quality subset). Click any row to open that name's cross study. "Hist 21d med" = the historical median 21-session return after that name's aligned cross in the same direction.

⚡ Alignment Cross — the 21-day snaps back into an already-unanimous longer-term trend

Asset

Direction:

The signal. Bullish reclaim = price was below its 21-day MA but above all of the 65/130/200-day MAs (a pullback inside an intact uptrend), then closed back above the 21-day — all four now aligned up. Bearish loss = the mirror (a bounce inside an intact downtrend that rolls back over). Each faint strand is the forward 1–30 session path after one such cross (green ended higher, red lower); the bold dashed line is the median with its 25–75 band. If the asset is primed (odd-man-out right now) or has just crossed, the banner flags the live opportunity and overlays the live path. Events are de-duplicated to ≥10 sessions apart; n<20 (flagged) = anecdote, not signal. History since 2008.

🎯 Threshold Lab — "the name just hit X% from its MA — what happened next?"

Asset

MA:

Level %

breached:

Since Regime

Type any level and pick a direction: a breach is the session price's distance from the chosen MA first crosses that level. Regime adds an "AND" filter — e.g. only breaches while the name is above a rising 200-day (buy-the-dip-in-an-uptrend). Each faint strand is the forward 1–30 session path from a breach; bold dashed = median with 25–75 band; indigo = the most recent (still-open) instance. Everything is computed live in your browser; Export CSV downloads every breach date + its 1–30 session forward returns. Daily data since 2020.

What This Measures

For every instrument we compute the percentage distance of price from each moving average (21, 65, 130 and 200 sessions): distance = price / SMA − 1. Positive means price is above the average (uptrend / extended up); negative means below (downtrend / extended down). The four windows span the spectrum from one-month tactical (21d) to one-year primary-trend (200d).

Why the Z-Score Matters

A raw +8% above the 200-day means something very different for low-volatility Berkshire than for high-beta Nvidia. So each distance is normalized into a Z-score against that name's own 3-year history of the same distance: Z = (distance − 3yr mean) / 3yr std. The composite Z averages the four windows into a single stretch reading. |Z| ≥ 2 (flagged red) means the instrument is more extended than it has been ~97.5% of the time over three years — a statistical mean-reversion candidate, in either direction.

How to Use It

Trend health / breadth: the "% above each MA" bars. Broad readings >50% across all four windows = healthy participation; a market where the index is above its 200d but <50% of names are is narrow and fragile.
Mean-reversion watchlist: the Most-Stretched leaderboards rank names by composite Z. High positive = overbought / extended up (fade or trail stops); high negative = washed out / extended down (bounce candidates). Extension is not a timing signal on its own — pair with a catalyst or a turn in the short-window (21d) distance.
Cross-asset rotation: the index heatmap shows which size/style cohorts (large vs mid vs small) are extended versus lagging — the raw material for the kind of ratio-spread trades in the other research tabs.

Caveats

Distance from a moving average is a positioning/▒extension gauge, not a directional forecast — strong trends stay extended for long stretches. The stock and ETF lists are a curated snapshot ordered by approximate market cap / AUM (the distance figures are live; the membership is refreshed manually). Newly-listed names with under one year of history show a distance but no Z-score. Index levels use yfinance spot symbols (^GSPC, ^NDX, …).