| Date | Entry Price | +5d | +20d | +60d | Max Up (20d) | Max DD (20d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | $1,280.34 | -7.1% | — | — | -1.9% | -9.7% |
| 2026-07-07 | $1,233.79 | -6.7% | -9.7% | — | -1.2% | -9.7% |
| 2026-06-26 | $1,206.39 | -0.7% | -0.9% | — | +2.3% | -5.1% |
| 2024-08-20 | $936.85 | +0.5% | -4.7% | -14.5% | +1.1% | -5.1% |
| 2024-05-21 | $790.97 | +1.0% | +10.3% | +15.0% | +11.0% | -0.0% |
| 2024-03-01 | $768.93 | -2.6% | -2.8% | +3.5% | +1.3% | -6.1% |
| 2024-01-29 | $633.02 | +9.5% | +18.8% | +13.7% | +21.5% | -0.0% |
| 2024-01-05 | $607.06 | +3.9% | +14.2% | +25.7% | +14.2% | +0.8% |
| 2023-11-08 | $606.51 | -4.8% | -4.8% | +14.1% | -1.0% | -5.5% |
| 2023-10-11 | $592.94 | +0.3% | +2.3% | +3.6% | +2.3% | -8.5% |
| 2023-08-08 | $509.87 | +5.0% | +7.6% | +6.5% | +7.6% | -0.0% |
| 2023-06-05 | $434.27 | +0.2% | +4.8% | +23.6% | +5.6% | -1.8% |
| 2022-11-30 | $360.63 | +0.2% | -1.1% | -15.9% | +1.0% | -3.6% |
| 2022-11-07 | $353.80 | -2.2% | +1.2% | -6.9% | +2.9% | -3.9% |
| 2022-09-28 | $324.06 | -0.8% | +7.0% | +9.6% | +7.0% | -3.8% |
| 2022-07-06 | $318.92 | -2.3% | -4.9% | +0.3% | +0.4% | -4.9% |
| 2022-06-24 | $314.54 | -0.3% | +1.8% | -7.0% | +1.8% | -2.5% |
| 2022-05-26 | $302.79 | -3.8% | +4.4% | +0.9% | +4.4% | -8.1% |
| 2022-03-28 | $280.79 | -0.1% | -3.0% | +7.6% | +6.9% | -4.4% |
| 2021-07-21 | $226.03 | +3.9% | +13.5% | +0.1% | +15.3% | +0.5% |
| 2021-07-02 | $222.86 | +0.9% | +5.4% | -5.0% | +5.4% | -1.1% |
| 2021-01-11 | $175.60 | +6.7% | +8.5% | -1.4% | +14.4% | -3.8% |
| 2020-06-30 | $153.51 | +3.0% | -1.5% | -8.9% | +3.0% | -2.8% |
| 2020-06-16 | $153.07 | -2.7% | +1.1% | -10.2% | +3.3% | -4.1% |
| 2020-04-14 | $140.63 | +1.0% | +4.4% | +10.7% | +7.8% | +0.0% |
| Horizon | N | Mean | Median | 25th pct | 75th pct | Hit Rate | Baseline Hit | Mean Edge | Hit Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 75 | -0.1% | +0.1% | -1.1% | +0.9% | 52% | 51% | -0.2% | +0.6% |
| Day 2 | 75 | -0.2% | -0.2% | -1.6% | +0.9% | 45% | 52% | -0.3% | -6.9% |
| Day 3 | 75 | -0.0% | +0.3% | -1.5% | +1.5% | 52% | 53% | -0.3% | -1.0% |
| Day 5 | 75 | +0.5% | +0.2% | -1.9% | +2.7% | 55% | 54% | +0.1% | +0.3% |
| Day 10 | 74 | +0.8% | +0.5% | -2.4% | +3.6% | 53% | 56% | +0.1% | -2.8% |
| Day 15 | 74 | +1.2% | +1.0% | -1.5% | +4.6% | 61% | 57% | +0.0% | +4.1% |
| Day 20 | 74 | +1.4% | +1.8% | -2.5% | +6.2% | 59% | 58% | -0.1% | +1.7% |
| Day 30 | 74 | +1.9% | +2.0% | -3.1% | +8.0% | 55% | 59% | -0.5% | -3.6% |
| Day 40 | 73 | +2.0% | +2.1% | -5.5% | +9.1% | 59% | 62% | -1.1% | -2.9% |
| Day 50 | 72 | +2.9% | +2.7% | -5.4% | +10.6% | 60% | 63% | -1.0% | -3.0% |
| Day 60 | 72 | +4.1% | +5.4% | -5.0% | +13.1% | 67% | 63% | -0.5% | +3.4% |
Two mechanical scale-out overlays on the same trigger. Enter 100% within two days of the signal, then manage the position in tranches — 20% / 30% / 30%, with the final 20% always exiting at the end of the study window.
Where the deviations come from. For every completed historical precedent we measure how far the trade travelled in your favor (its Maximum Favorable Excursion). The three profit deviations span that favorable-outcome distribution — a low, median and high reading of how far these trades historically ran. (For thin samples these are the literal weakest / typical / strongest outcomes; for larger samples they are robust quartiles, so one outlier can't set the rungs.) The three loss deviations are the exact mirror of the profit deviations — the same levels flipped below the entry, so a +4% first take-profit pairs with a −4% first stop. It's a symmetric bracket. A rung only fills if price actually trades there; unfilled tranches exit with the balance at the window close. Mirrored for shorts (the profit-taker buys the name back lower; the loss-taker covers higher).
⚠️ Small-sample caveat. With only a handful of completed precedents these levels are illustrative, in-sample anchors — a disciplined way to turn "what this pattern historically did" into entry, take-profit and stop levels, not a statistically validated system. The live bracket is the payoff, not the backtest averages.
| Rung | Return | Price | Action | Live status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit · 3rd dev | +17.7% | $1,465 | sell 30% | pending |
| Profit · 2nd dev | +11.4% | $1,387 | sell 30% | pending |
| Profit · 1st dev | +3.6% | $1,290 | sell 20% | pending |
| ● Entry | 0.0% | $1,244 | buy 100% | Day 7 |
| Loss · 1st dev | -3.6% | $1,199 | cut 20% | ● cut |
| Loss · 2nd dev | -11.4% | $1,102 | cut 30% | pending |
| Loss · 3rd dev | -17.7% | $1,024 | cut 30% | pending |
| Signal date | Peak (MFE) | Trough (MAE) | Buy & hold | Profit-taker | P-devs | Loss-taker | L-devs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994-01-18 | +0.6% | -19.8% | -19.8% | -19.8% | ○○○ | -13.4% | ●●● |
| 1994-12-21 | +10.1% | -1.0% | +10.1% | +8.8% | ●○○ | +10.1% | ○○○ |
| 1995-01-23 | +21.7% | -0.8% | +15.7% | +12.6% | ●●● | +15.7% | ○○○ |
| 1995-01-31 | +19.6% | -1.1% | +15.0% | +12.5% | ●●● | +15.0% | ○○○ |
| 1995-02-24 | +17.4% | +0.0% | +11.1% | +9.7% | ●●○ | +11.1% | ○○○ |
| 1995-03-14 | +14.1% | +0.0% | +12.2% | +10.2% | ●●○ | +12.2% | ○○○ |
| 1995-04-13 | +2.5% | -9.5% | -0.3% | -0.3% | ○○○ | -0.9% | ●○○ |
| 1995-08-28 | +29.6% | +0.0% | +24.7% | +14.4% | ●●● | +24.7% | ○○○ |
| 1995-09-14 | +21.5% | +0.0% | +19.9% | +13.5% | ●●● | +19.9% | ○○○ |
| 1995-10-05 | +23.0% | -0.5% | +16.2% | +12.7% | ●●● | +16.2% | ○○○ |
| 1995-10-12 | +21.5% | +0.0% | +6.5% | +10.8% | ●●● | +6.5% | ○○○ |
| 1995-10-25 | +16.3% | -2.7% | +7.5% | +7.9% | ●●○ | +7.5% | ○○○ |
| 1995-11-15 | +29.4% | -1.6% | +29.4% | +15.4% | ●●● | +29.4% | ○○○ |
| 1995-12-06 | +29.4% | -1.6% | +29.4% | +15.4% | ●●● | +29.4% | ○○○ |
| 1995-12-15 | +28.1% | -6.4% | +17.2% | +12.9% | ●●● | +13.0% | ●○○ |
| 1996-01-31 | +17.3% | -3.4% | +2.3% | +5.3% | ●●○ | +2.3% | ○○○ |
| 1996-02-23 | +8.2% | -11.8% | -4.6% | -3.0% | ●○○ | -6.5% | ●●○ |
| 1996-03-05 | +3.7% | -15.6% | -0.6% | +0.3% | ●○○ | -4.4% | ●●○ |
| 1996-11-05 | +14.1% | -5.6% | +14.1% | +11.2% | ●●○ | +10.6% | ●○○ |
| 1996-11-25 | +23.9% | -5.2% | +23.9% | +14.3% | ●●● | +18.4% | ●○○ |
| 1996-12-19 | +22.9% | -6.0% | +12.8% | +12.0% | ●●● | +9.5% | ●○○ |
| 1997-01-14 | +19.2% | -1.3% | -1.3% | +9.2% | ●●● | -1.3% | ○○○ |
| 1997-01-30 | +8.8% | -10.0% | +1.0% | +1.5% | ●○○ | +0.1% | ●○○ |
| 1997-07-01 | +10.6% | -7.6% | +10.1% | +8.8% | ●○○ | +7.3% | ●○○ |
| 1997-09-22 | +14.5% | -1.6% | +11.4% | +9.9% | ●●○ | +11.4% | ○○○ |
| 1997-10-21 | +6.6% | -8.1% | +3.2% | +3.3% | ●○○ | +1.8% | ●○○ |
| 1997-12-29 | +2.9% | -13.9% | -13.7% | -13.7% | ○○○ | -11.0% | ●●○ |
| 1998-09-15 | +17.5% | -9.0% | +12.3% | +10.3% | ●●○ | +9.1% | ●○○ |
| 1998-10-30 | +14.4% | -6.9% | +14.4% | +11.4% | ●●○ | +10.8% | ●○○ |
| 1998-11-20 | +6.4% | -14.8% | +6.4% | +5.9% | ●○○ | -0.9% | ●●○ |
| 1999-01-28 | +4.3% | -22.0% | -15.4% | -11.6% | ●○○ | -12.6% | ●●● |
| 1999-02-22 | +1.0% | -24.4% | -21.2% | -21.2% | ○○○ | -13.7% | ●●● |
| 1999-03-05 | +0.0% | -30.9% | -27.7% | -27.7% | ○○○ | -15.0% | ●●● |
| 2000-08-01 | +1.7% | -36.7% | -17.8% | -17.8% | ○○○ | -13.0% | ●●● |
| 2014-11-28 | +6.3% | +0.0% | +3.2% | +3.3% | ●○○ | +3.2% | ○○○ |
| 2015-05-28 | +12.6% | -1.5% | +2.9% | +5.6% | ●●○ | +2.9% | ○○○ |
| 2015-06-09 | +6.8% | -5.3% | -1.3% | -0.3% | ●○○ | -1.8% | ●○○ |
| 2015-07-07 | +3.7% | -9.8% | -1.8% | -0.7% | ●○○ | -2.2% | ●○○ |
| 2015-09-17 | +0.0% | -13.0% | -3.7% | -3.7% | ○○○ | -6.0% | ●●○ |
| 2017-12-13 | +1.3% | -14.2% | -8.6% | -8.6% | ○○○ | -8.4% | ●●○ |
| 2018-09-07 | +12.0% | -0.8% | +10.0% | +9.2% | ●●○ | +10.0% | ○○○ |
| 2018-09-28 | +10.8% | -1.6% | +5.4% | +5.1% | ●○○ | +5.4% | ○○○ |
| 2018-11-19 | +7.5% | -7.2% | +7.5% | +6.7% | ●○○ | +5.3% | ●○○ |
| 2018-11-29 | +9.2% | -10.2% | +9.2% | +8.1% | ●○○ | +6.6% | ●○○ |
| 2019-01-17 | +13.0% | -1.4% | +3.4% | +5.9% | ●●○ | +3.4% | ○○○ |
| 2019-01-31 | +9.0% | -4.2% | -2.7% | -1.4% | ●○○ | -2.9% | ●○○ |
| 2019-02-14 | +7.0% | -6.6% | -6.2% | -4.2% | ●○○ | -5.7% | ●○○ |
| 2019-03-25 | +0.0% | -14.2% | -11.3% | -11.3% | ○○○ | -9.8% | ●●○ |
| 2020-01-07 | +10.2% | -10.5% | +5.0% | +4.7% | ●○○ | +3.3% | ●○○ |
| 2020-01-30 | +17.3% | -14.3% | +13.2% | +10.8% | ●●○ | +2.5% | ●●○ |
| 2020-04-14 | +12.4% | -5.9% | +8.6% | +8.4% | ●●○ | +6.1% | ●○○ |
| 2020-06-16 | +5.7% | -8.1% | -7.0% | -4.9% | ●○○ | -6.3% | ●○○ |
| 2020-06-30 | +3.6% | -10.0% | -7.5% | -7.5% | ○○○ | -6.8% | ●○○ |
| 2021-01-11 | +19.0% | +0.0% | +3.6% | +10.2% | ●●● | +3.6% | ○○○ |
| 2021-07-02 | +16.2% | -5.6% | -1.8% | +3.2% | ●●○ | -2.2% | ●○○ |
| 2021-07-21 | +14.7% | -6.8% | +0.1% | +4.2% | ●●○ | -0.7% | ●○○ |
| 2022-03-28 | +13.3% | -3.3% | +13.3% | +10.8% | ●●○ | +13.3% | ○○○ |
| 2022-05-26 | +2.5% | -10.9% | -1.1% | -1.1% | ○○○ | -1.6% | ●○○ |
| 2022-06-24 | +1.3% | -9.1% | -9.1% | -9.1% | ○○○ | -8.0% | ●○○ |
| 2022-07-06 | +2.3% | -9.3% | -1.1% | -1.1% | ○○○ | -1.6% | ●○○ |
| 2022-09-28 | +13.9% | -2.6% | +11.8% | +10.1% | ●●○ | +11.8% | ○○○ |
| 2022-11-07 | +2.5% | -9.6% | -7.7% | -7.7% | ○○○ | -6.8% | ●○○ |
| 2022-11-30 | +1.2% | -15.7% | -14.9% | -14.9% | ○○○ | -11.6% | ●●○ |
| 2023-06-05 | +25.3% | -1.9% | +25.3% | +14.5% | ●●● | +25.3% | ○○○ |
| 2023-08-08 | +17.4% | -0.9% | +10.5% | +9.4% | ●●○ | +10.5% | ○○○ |
| 2023-10-11 | +2.7% | -9.3% | +2.6% | +2.6% | ○○○ | +1.4% | ●○○ |
| 2023-11-08 | +22.9% | -3.4% | +22.9% | +14.1% | ●●● | +22.9% | ○○○ |
| 2024-01-05 | +26.8% | -0.4% | +22.9% | +14.1% | ●●● | +22.9% | ○○○ |
| 2024-01-29 | +23.1% | +0.0% | +12.6% | +12.0% | ●●● | +12.6% | ○○○ |
| 2024-03-01 | +2.6% | -8.5% | +2.6% | +2.6% | ○○○ | +1.4% | ●○○ |
| 2024-05-21 | +18.4% | -3.8% | +15.0% | +12.5% | ●●● | +11.2% | ●○○ |
| 2024-08-20 | +0.8% | -18.4% | -17.4% | -17.4% | ○○○ | -13.0% | ●●● |
The Echo pattern isolates a specific flavor of all-time-high: a reclaim breakout. Three conditions must hold simultaneously: (1) the current session closes at a new all-time high; (2) at least 2 prior ATH closes occurred in the trailing 60 sessions — the stock was recently in price discovery; and (3) at least 5 sessions have elapsed since the last ATH close — a genuine pause occurred. Pattern recognition that ignores the pause lumps dense, grinding melt-ups together with consolidation breakouts. This filter isolates the reclaim. Over 1993–present (8,473 sessions), the condition has fired 75 times (41 in the post-2014 pharma regime), most recently on Aug 19, 2026.
The reflexive momentum trade gets chopped before it works. Day-1 hit rate is 52% and day-2 is 45% — statistically no better than a coin flip, and at-or-below the unconditional baseline. Buying the immediate breakout candle while paying elevated breakout-day implied volatility mathematically guarantees negative expectancy in this first window. The front-end chop is a feature of the pattern, not a bug.
The edge bypasses the front-end chop entirely and accumulates over 4 to 8 weeks. At 20 sessions the conditional median is +1.8% with a 59% hit rate (baseline: 58%). At 60 sessions the median reaches +5.4% with a 67% hit rate (baseline: 63%). The expectancy curve steadily outstrips the baseline before normalizing around week eight.
Honest caveat — drift contamination: LLY exists in a secular uptrend, so a meaningful share of the raw return is the stock's inherent upward drift, not the pattern. The pattern's true alpha contribution is purely entry timing following a pause, combined with a highly favorable risk shape. It is not a magic directional signal.
Within 20 sessions of the signal (the option trade window), the median max drawdown is -3.6% (5th percentile: -11.2%) against a median max upside excursion of +4.6% (95th percentile: +13.6%). A contained, knowable typical heat against a wider, highly probable upside. The rare but severe left-tail events dictate that downside risk must be structurally capped — which drives the trade expression.
LLY's prior price-discovery run ended Nov 25, 2025 ($1,106 close). After a ~six-month pause, the stock reclaimed all-time-high territory with an ATH close on May 28, 2026 ($1,127), followed by confirming ATH closes on Jun 5, Jun 8, and Jun 11 ($1,161). The AlphaQuery study (published Jun 4, 2026) flags this as a live Echo trigger.
One honest flag: the strict backtest definition requires the prior ATH cluster to sit within the trailing 60 sessions — pauses of roughly 1 to 12 weeks. The current pause ran ~123 sessions, making this an extended-pause variant of the pattern rather than an in-sample analog. The most recent strict-rule analog fired Aug 20, 2024. The reclaim mechanics are the same, but the conditional statistics on this page are drawn from the shorter-pause population and should be applied with that extra grain of salt.
Naked equity exposure and naked directional calls are hostile to this data signature. The environment demands expressions that finance the front-end chop while defining left-tail exposure: