Alpha Query — Ralph Lauren (RL) Twin Setups

● BOTH SETUPS LIVE — RL $347, -7.2% since the May-21 Double Cross (~week 13). The two prior Double Crosses ran to +33.6% (2000) and +54.8% (2020) by week 16 after an early dip; RL has skipped the dip so far.

Double Cross — current RL trade vs the 2000 & 2020 precedents

The navy line is RL's actual path since the May-21 Double Cross, laid over the only two prior occurrences (2000, 2020). Both dipped early then ran to +34% / +55% by week 16; RL has front-run the dip so far.

Outside Reversal Week — current RL trade vs the 2002 / 2008 / 2011 precedents

The second signal, on weekly bars. Every prior in-uptrend OBRW was green by week 16; the 2011 analog (similar +112% prior run) chopped then exploded weeks 8-11.

Part 1 — Outside Bullish Reversal Week (+10%, 2-year uptrend): every occurrence

Signal date	Close	Signal ret	2yr prior	+1W	+2W	+4W	+6W	+8W	+12W	+16W
2002-08-09	16.55	+10.7%	+11%	+4.8%	+7.4%	+3.2%	+2.1%	-14.3%	-11.5%	+6.9%
2008-01-25	45.08	+10.9%	+5%	+3.4%	+7.7%	+9.6%	-2.9%	+1.9%	+0.3%	+5.3%
2011-08-12	106.46	+10.6%	+112%	-12.0%	-4.4%	-2.7%	+6.4%	+2.6%	+14.4%	+5.2%
2026-05-22 ● live	376.86	+15.6%	+124%	-3.7%	-3.0%	+9.3%	+5.7%	+1.0%	+3.2%	—

Cumulative return from the signal week's close. All prior in-uptrend events finished positive by week 16. n=3 historical — anecdotal precedent.

Part 2 — The Double Cross (+10% day through both 65d & 200d MAs): every occurrence

Signal date	Close	Signal ret	+1W	+2W	+4W	+6W	+8W	+12W	+16W
2000-10-05	14.17	+17.8%	-4.9%	+2.3%	+22.0%	+13.8%	+13.8%	+18.1%	+33.6%
2020-11-09	73.49	+19.8%	-2.9%	+2.0%	+18.9%	+20.9%	+37.2%	+32.7%	+54.8%
2026-05-21 ● live	373.99	+13.9%	-2.9%	-2.2%	+9.6%	+5.7%	+2.4%	+1.1%	—

Cumulative return from the signal day's close (weeks = 5-session steps). Exceptionally rare — n=2 historical, both ran hard after a brief consolidation.

💰 The "Take-It" Trade-Management Plan — Profit-Taker & Loss-Taker

Two mechanical scale-out overlays on the same trigger. Enter 100% within two days of the signal, then manage the position in tranches — 20% / 30% / 30%, with the final 20% always exiting at the end of the study window.

Profit-taker scales OUT into strength — sell (or, on a short, buy back) 20% at the 1st profit deviation, 30% at the 2nd, 30% at the 3rd.
Loss-taker scales OUT of weakness — cut 20% at the 1st loss deviation, 30% at the 2nd, 30% at the 3rd.

Where the deviations come from. For every completed historical precedent we measure how far the trade travelled in your favor (its Maximum Favorable Excursion). The three profit deviations span that favorable-outcome distribution — a low, median and high reading of how far these trades historically ran. (For thin samples these are the literal weakest / typical / strongest outcomes; for larger samples they are robust quartiles, so one outlier can't set the rungs.) The three loss deviations are the exact mirror of the profit deviations — the same levels flipped below the entry, so a +4% first take-profit pairs with a −4% first stop. It's a symmetric bracket. A rung only fills if price actually trades there; unfilled tranches exit with the balance at the window close. Mirrored for shorts (the profit-taker buys the name back lower; the loss-taker covers higher).

⚠️ Small-sample caveat. With only a handful of completed precedents these levels are illustrative, in-sample anchors — a disciplined way to turn "what this pattern historically did" into entry, take-profit and stop levels, not a statistically validated system. The live bracket is the payoff, not the backtest averages.

Double Cross — the bracket ladder & where the live RL trade stands

Rung	Return	Price	Action	Live status
Profit · 3rd dev	+55.6%	$586	sell 30%	pending
Profit · 2nd dev	+50.6%	$567	sell 30%	pending
Profit · 1st dev	+45.5%	$549	sell 20%	pending
● Entry	0.0%	$377	buy 100%	Day 68
Loss · 1st dev	-45.5%	$205	cut 20%	pending
Loss · 2nd dev	-50.6%	$186	cut 30%	pending
Loss · 3rd dev	-55.6%	$167	cut 30%	pending

● Live Double Cross: in at $377, now -7.9% (Day 68; peak +9.7%, trough -7.9%). Profit-taker: 0% scaled out — next take-profit → 1st dev $549 (+45.5%). Loss-taker: 0% cut — next stop → 1st dev $205 (-45.5%).

Double Cross — both ladders across every historical precedent

Signal date	Peak (MFE)	Trough (MAE)	Buy & hold	Profit-taker	P-devs	Loss-taker	L-devs
2000-10-05	+45.5%	-1.0%	+40.1%	+41.2%	●○○	+40.1%	○○○
2020-11-09	+55.6%	-8.7%	+53.6%	+51.7%	●●●	+53.6%	○○○

n=2 completed precedents · profit-taker avg +46.4%, loss-taker avg +46.9%, buy-&-hold-to-window-end +46.9%. ● = deviation reached, ○ = never reached (that tranche exited with the balance at the window close).

Double Cross — laddered exits vs buy-&-hold

Outside Reversal — the bracket ladder & where the live RL trade stands

Rung	Return	Price	Action	Live status
Profit · 3rd dev	+17.9%	$444	sell 30%	pending
Profit · 2nd dev	+11.4%	$420	sell 30%	pending
Profit · 1st dev	+7.4%	$405	sell 20%	● filled
● Entry	0.0%	$377	buy 100%	Wk 15
Loss · 1st dev	-7.4%	$349	cut 20%	● cut
Loss · 2nd dev	-11.4%	$334	cut 30%	pending
Loss · 3rd dev	-17.9%	$310	cut 30%	pending

● Live Outside Reversal: in at $377, now -7.9% (Wk 15; peak +9.3%, trough -7.9%). Profit-taker: 20% scaled out — next take-profit → 2nd dev $420 (+11.4%). Loss-taker: 20% cut — next stop → 2nd dev $334 (-11.4%).

Outside Reversal — both ladders across every historical precedent

Signal date	Peak (MFE)	Trough (MAE)	Buy & hold	Profit-taker	P-devs	Loss-taker	L-devs
2002-08-09	+7.4%	-20.1%	+6.9%	+7.0%	●○○	-8.9%	●●●
2008-01-25	+11.4%	-2.9%	+5.3%	+7.6%	●●○	+5.3%	○○○
2011-08-12	+17.9%	-12.0%	+5.2%	+11.3%	●●●	-2.3%	●●○

n=3 completed precedents · profit-taker avg +8.6%, loss-taker avg -1.9%, buy-&-hold-to-window-end +5.8%. ● = deviation reached, ○ = never reached (that tranche exited with the balance at the window close).

Outside Reversal — laddered exits vs buy-&-hold

The Setup — Two Rare Signals at Once

Ralph Lauren gapped sharply higher on a strong May-2026 earnings report and, in doing so, triggered two rare bullish technical patterns within days of each other — the kind of confluence that historically marks the start of a multi-month advance. RL is $347 today, already -7.2% above the Double-Cross signal close, about 13 weeks into the move.

Part 1 — Outside Bullish Reversal Week (in a 2-Year Uptrend)

A weekly bar that takes out the prior week's low, then closes above the prior week's high — a violent bullish engulfing — gaining ≥10%, while the 2-year trend is up. It has happened just 4 times (2002, 2008, 2011, and now). Every prior in-uptrend occurrence was positive by week 16. The closest analog is 2011 — the only one with a comparable 2-year run-up (+112%, vs +124% now). It chopped/dropped hard early, then exploded between weeks 8 and 11.

Part 2 — The "Double Cross" (the marquee signal)

A single session that gains ≥10% and crosses from below both the 65-day and 200-day moving averages to above both at once — a one-day regime flip from downtrend to uptrend on an earnings shock. It has occurred only twice before in RL's history: 2000 and 2020. Both followed the same script — a brief 1-to-3-week consolidation (each dipped ~3-5% by week 1), then a massive multi-month run: +33.6% (2000) and +54.8% (2020) by week 16.

The Playbook

Bias: long, multi-month. The confluence of OBRW (macro uptrend) + a Double Cross on a 10%+ earnings gap is, historically, about as bullish a technical picture as RL produces — a 3-to-4-month constructive window.
Expect chop first. Both Double-Cross precedents dipped in the first 1-3 weeks before the real leg higher. A pullback toward the reclaimed 65-day MA is the textbook entry/add, not a failure.
Where the live trade stands: RL is -7.2% at ~week 13 — it has not given back the early dip the analogs did, so it is tracking ahead of both precedents so far (see the Live Trade tab).
Invalidation: a close back below both the 65-day and 200-day MAs would void the Double-Cross thesis — that has never been how these resolved, so treat it as a hard stop.

⚠️ Honesty on the Sample

This is pattern precedent, not statistics. The Double Cross has n=2 prior cases; OBRW n=3. You cannot build a confidence interval from that — treat it as "every prior instance resolved bullishly, here's the shape," not a probability. The signals also coincide with a fundamental catalyst (a strong earnings beat), which is doing real work alongside the technicals. The replication reproduces the source report to the decimal (2020 Double Cross +54.8% by week 16), so the history is solid — the caveat is purely the small N. Size as a conviction trade with a defined invalidation, not a system.