MA-Stretch Screen · Action Basket

Best opportunities to review

The extreme reads with the strongest recency-weighted forward edge, ranked. Edge = the best favorable move across the 2/5/8/11/15/21-day term structure (up for oversold longs, down-capture for overbought fades); Fav% = the win rate in that direction. A statistical shortlist to cross-check against the mandate before any portfolio action — not orders.

Screen Action Basket (16)

Setups

▲ Long (oversold)

▼ Fade (overbought)

As of

July 31, 2026

#	Setup	Direction	Now	Edge	Horizon	Fav%	n	Conviction
1	TSLA · 200d	▲ Long	-24.4% p8	+28.4%	21d	68%	7	High
2	TSLA · 21d	▲ Long	-14.8% p6	+9.6%	15d	69%	22	High
3	META · 21d	▲ Long	-10.1% p5	+9.4%	21d	59%	22	Medium
4	XLK/XLF · 65d	▲ Long	-8.6% p3	+6.5%	21d	75%	12	High
5	MSFT · 65d	▼ Fade	+15.4% p100	+7.7%	15d	51%	12	Low
6	SMH · 21d	▲ Long	-5.6% p10	+5.1%	21d	87%	24	High
7	SMH/SPY · 21d	▲ Long	-5.8% p4	+4.2%	21d	84%	24	High
8	GLD · 200d	▲ Long	-9.8% p1	+3.7%	5d	97%	7	High
9	CRM · 21d	▼ Fade	+8.0% p95	+3.9%	21d	59%	26	Medium
10	SMH/SPY · 65d	▲ Long	-8.1% p4	+2.7%	15d	94%	11	High
11	TSLA · 65d	▲ Long	-21.3% p8	+3.5%	15d	55%	10	Medium
12	IWF/IWD · 200d	▲ Long	-11.7% p2	+2.8%	8d	72%	9	High
13	AMZN · 21d	▼ Fade	+11.4% p98	+2.8%	11d	71%	20	High
14	MA · 65d	▼ Fade	+12.3% p99	+2.1%	5d	73%	12	High
15	QQQ/SPY · 65d	▲ Long	-3.9% p5	+1.5%	11d	80%	10	High
16	IWF/IWD · 65d	▲ Long	-7.6% p4	+1.6%	11d	68%	10	High

Before acting. Edge is a recency-weighted median over a thin, post-2021 sample (see n) — a probability tilt, not a promise. Cross-check every candidate against the TEF mandate (behavioral exhaustion, exit-before-entry, 20/30/30/20 ladder, size to the risk budget) and current market health before it earns a place in the book. Conviction blends sample size and the win rate. Educational research, not advice.