Commodity Daily Testing — signal to ranked idea

Every highlighted single-session signal across the 20 commodity futures (energy · metals · grains · softs · meats) for the latest bar — hammers & shooting stars, the strict Reversal Day, Open & Go, and a new 2%/5% intraday-reversal screen — pooled, then each run through its own forward-return study. The best probability results become ranked trade ideas with a direction, the horizon where the edge is strongest, a structure, and a quarter-Kelly size.

2%/5% screen · bull = closed ≥+2% and ≥5 points off the session low (e.g. dumped −3% intraday, closed +2%); bear = closed ≤−2% and ≥5 points off the high. Probability = that name’s own history at the same setup (win-rate & median forward move); the edge must confirm the trade’s direction.

Candidates

9 bull · 1 bear

Ranked ideas

confirmed forward edge

Top idea

LE=F

72% · +2.48% median

Session

August 31, 2026

latest settled bar

🎯 Top trade ideas · best probability first

Ranked by forward edge (win-rate × median move), with a confluence bonus when a name trips more than one signal. Structure follows the STORM playbook; size is quarter-Kelly, capped.

1LE=FLive CattleLONG🔨 Hammer

72% win+2.48% median~1 month (21d, n=25)¼-Kelly 1.08% NAVedge 2.18

Long call spread — Buy ~ATM (212.65), sell ~217.93 (about the expected move wide). Strong edge, defined risk.

2CT=FCottonLONG🔨 Hammer

66% win+2.01% median~2 weeks (10d, n=29)¼-Kelly 0.25% NAVedge 1.25

Long call spread — Buy ~ATM (92.97), sell ~94.84 (about the expected move wide). Strong edge, defined risk.

3PA=FPalladiumSHORT⭐ Star ↩ 2%/5% Reversal · 2 signals

52% win+2.99% median~1 month (21d, n=46)¼-Kelly 0.25% NAVedge 0.6

Long puts — ~ATM puts 4–8 weeks out (or short the stock with a stop above the signal high). Moderate down-edge, risk = premium.

4HG=FCopperLONG🔨 Hammer

64% win+0.92% median~1 month (21d, n=45)¼-Kelly 0.25% NAVedge 0.53

Short put spread (bull put) — Sell the 6.49 put, buy the 6.22 put (3–7% below spot). High-prob, modest move — win if it holds, rises, or dips slightly.

5ZL=FSoybean OilLONG🔨 Hammer

58% win+0.9% median~1 month (21d, n=45)¼-Kelly 0.25% NAVedge 0.28

Long stock — Straight long; add on a pullback toward the 50-day. Moderate edge, no premium decay.

6KC=FCoffeeLONG🔨 Hammer

55% win+0.79% median~2 weeks (10d, n=62)¼-Kelly 0.25% NAVedge 0.16

Long stock — Straight long; add on a pullback toward the 50-day. Moderate edge, no premium decay.

🧪 Master candidate list

Every bull/bear candidate detected this session, whether or not it cleared a forward edge. “Rev off” = points recovered off the low (bull) or faded off the high (bear).

Name	Signal(s)	Dir	Net	Rev off	Close-in-range
PA=FPalladium	⭐ Star ↩ 2%/5% Reversal	Short	-4.7%	5.7	6
CC=FCocoa	🔨 Hammer	Long	+1.8%	3.3	80
CT=FCotton	🔨 Hammer	Long	+1.7%	2.6	75
NG=FNat Gas	🔨 Hammer	Long	+1.6%	3.6	90
ZW=FWheat	🔨 Hammer	Long	-1.3%	2.3	63
LE=FLive Cattle	🔨 Hammer	Long	+0.4%	0.7	64
HG=FCopper	🔨 Hammer	Long	+0.4%	1.4	70
KC=FCoffee	🔨 Hammer	Long	+0.4%	1.6	61
ZL=FSoybean Oil	🔨 Hammer	Long	+0.1%	1.7	83
ZS=FSoybeans	🔨 Hammer	Long	+0.0%	0.8	62

Forward studies use each name’s own daily history (rc_hist, from 2011). Win-rate and median are measured at 5/10/21 sessions and the strongest horizon is shown as the duration. Probability-based research on historical analogs — not a recommendation; base rates are odds, not promises, and regimes change.