Commodity Daily Testing — signal to ranked idea

Every highlighted single-session signal across the 20 commodity futures (energy · metals · grains · softs · meats) for the latest bar — hammers & shooting stars, the strict Reversal Day, Open & Go, and a new 2%/5% intraday-reversal screen — pooled, then each run through its own forward-return study. The best probability results become ranked trade ideas with a direction, the horizon where the edge is strongest, a structure, and a quarter-Kelly size.

2%/5% screen · bull = closed ≥+2% and ≥5 points off the session low (e.g. dumped −3% intraday, closed +2%); bear = closed ≤−2% and ≥5 points off the high. Probability = that name’s own history at the same setup (win-rate & median forward move); the edge must confirm the trade’s direction.

Candidates

9 bull · 8 bear

Ranked ideas

confirmed forward edge

Top idea

HO=F

70% · +3.59% median

Session

October 29, 2026

latest settled bar

🎯 Top trade ideas · best probability first

Every idea passes the truth test on time-weighted history (2026 ×10 · Tariffs→2025 ×8 · Apr 2023→Tariffs ×6 · earlier ×1): a win-rate edge of +5 pts or more over the name’s own weighted base, with p < 0.10 on the weighted sample. Ranked by edge × median move, with a confluence bonus when a name trips more than one signal. Structure follows the STORM playbook; size is quarter-Kelly, capped.

1HO=FHeating OilLONG🔨 Hammer

70% win+3.59% median~2 weeks (10d, n=68)¼-Kelly 2.31% NAVedge 5.83

Long call spread — Buy ~ATM (4.60), sell ~4.76 (about the expected move wide). Strong edge, defined risk.

2CL=FWTI CrudeLONG🔨 Hammer 🔁 Reversal Day · 2 signals

62% win+4.16% median~1 month (21d, n=69)¼-Kelly 0.25% NAVedge 3.28

Long call spread — Buy ~ATM (102.84), sell ~107.11 (about the expected move wide). Strong edge, defined risk.

3NG=FNat GasSHORT⭐ Star ↩ 2%/5% Reversal · 2 signals

66% win+1.99% median~1 week (5d, n=60)¼-Kelly 0.25% NAVedge 2.56

Short call spread (bear call) — Sell the 3.01 call, buy the 3.12 call. High-prob fade — win if it drops, holds, or ticks up only.

4ZM=FSoybean MealSHORT⭐ Star

66% win+1.79% median~1 month (21d, n=67)¼-Kelly 0.25% NAVedge 1.85

Short call spread (bear call) — Sell the 339.08 call, buy the 352.24 call. High-prob fade — win if it drops, holds, or ticks up only.

5PL=FPlatinumSHORT⭐ Star

54% win+2.1% median~1 month (21d, n=69)¼-Kelly 0.25% NAVedge 1.69

Long puts — ~ATM puts 4–8 weeks out (or short the stock with a stop above the signal high). Moderate down-edge, risk = premium.

6HE=FLean HogsLONG🔨 Hammer

58% win+1.23% median~1 month (21d, n=48)¼-Kelly 0.25% NAVedge 1.57

Long stock — Straight long; add on a pullback toward the 50-day. Moderate edge, no premium decay.

7CT=FCottonLONG🔨 Hammer

59% win+0.96% median~2 weeks (10d, n=52)¼-Kelly 0.25% NAVedge 1.16

Long stock — Straight long; add on a pullback toward the 50-day. Moderate edge, no premium decay.

🧪 Master candidate list

Every bull/bear candidate detected this session, whether or not it cleared a forward edge. “Rev off” = points recovered off the low (bull) or faded off the high (bear).

Name	Signal(s)	Dir	Net	Rev off	Close-in-range
NG=FNat Gas	⭐ Star ↩ 2%/5% Reversal	Short	-3.7%	5.1	13
PL=FPlatinum	⭐ Star	Short	-3.3%	3.9	18
SI=FSilver	⭐ Star	Short	-2.6%	4.0	11
HE=FLean Hogs	🔨 Hammer	Long	+2.4%	3.1	78
ZM=FSoybean Meal	⭐ Star	Short	-1.9%	2.2	26
HO=FHeating Oil	🔨 Hammer	Long	-1.5%	2.3	66
PA=FPalladium	⭐ Star	Short	-1.2%	2.1	35
HG=FCopper	⭐ Star	Short	-1.1%	1.5	32
SB=FSugar	⭐ Star	Short	+0.9%	1.4	39
LE=FLive Cattle	🔨 Hammer	Long	-0.5%	0.5	71
CT=FCotton	🔨 Hammer	Long	+0.4%	1.0	73
GC=FGold	⭐ Star	Short	-0.4%	1.1	29
ZS=FSoybeans	🔨 Hammer	Long	-0.3%	0.6	67
ZL=FSoybean Oil	🔨 Hammer	Long	+0.2%	1.8	93
RB=FRBOB Gasoline	🔨 Hammer	Long	-0.2%	2.8	87
KC=FCoffee	🔨 Hammer	Long	-0.1%	2.0	73
CL=FWTI Crude	🔨 Hammer 🔁 Reversal Day	Long	+0.1%	3.0	98

Forward studies use each name’s own daily history (rc_hist, from 2011). Win-rate and median are measured at 5/10/21 sessions and the strongest horizon is shown as the duration. Probability-based research on historical analogs — not a recommendation; base rates are odds, not promises, and regimes change.