After the biggest up-days of the year — semis & memory

An event is a day whose gain ranks among that stock's 5 largest daily returns of the trailing 12 months, judged point-in-time: each day is compared only with the year before it. Applied day by day, a stock collects roughly five new qualifying days a year — more in a strong run, because a day counts if it was top-5 at the time. Two windows only: the current environment (since Jul 1 2025, the default) and the AI era (since Apr 1 2023); nothing earlier is used, and every base rate is measured over the same window as its events.

The read. Current environment: 62% win at +10 sessions vs a 57% base (median +3.27% vs +1.68%); +21 sessions 60% vs 62%. AI era: +10 sessions 57% vs 56% (median +1.77% vs +1.33%); +21 57% vs 58%. Events cluster — 306 current-environment events fall on 111 distinct days.

Top-5 days on the last session · 2026-10-28

Names that printed one of their 5 biggest up-days of the past year. Each print is run through the full trade menu — long or short at the signal close for 1 to 65 sessions, or long on the day-5 dip — against every top-5 day at least 70% as large since Jul 2025. A trade is valid when it wins at least half the time with a positive median and beats the same-window base by 3+ points; it goes to the nightly Testing bucket only when the stock's own history agrees.

No top-5 day in any of these stocks on the last session.

Forward path

show the pooled path

Pooled — Current environment (since Jul 1 2025)

Every event across the stocks in this window, against the same stocks on any day in the same window. Green = at least 5 points better than base.

Sample	+1 session	+5 sessions	+10 sessions	+21 sessions
All 36 stocks 306 events on 111 dates	58% / 53% +0.78% vs +0.22%	58% / 56% +1.64% vs +0.95%	62% / 57% +3.27% vs +1.68%	60% / 62% +3.81% vs +4.58%
Semis 256 events	59% +1.03%	60% +2.03%	63% +3.59%	59% +3.44%
Memory 50 events	48% -0.14%	48% -1.06%	60% +1.54%	68% +5.58%

By stock — sorted by the +10-session edge

Win % after a top-5 day / the stock's any-day base, both since Jul 1 2025. Click a row for its forward path. Samples per stock are small — read them as indicative.

Stock	Events	+1d win / base	+5d win / base	+10d win / base	+21d win / base	+10d edge	+10d median vs base
TER semis	7	57% / 57%	57% / 61%	100% / 64%	86% / 76%	+36	+6.25% vs +4.42%
ON semis	6	67% / 51%	67% / 53%	83% / 51%	83% / 55%	+32	+6.05% vs +0.46%
ASML semis	7	71% / 55%	100% / 58%	86% / 58%	86% / 70%	+28	+10.95% vs +1.59%
NXPI semis	4	75% / 49%	75% / 50%	75% / 47%	75% / 50%	+28	+5.17% vs -0.64%
LRCX semis	9	78% / 55%	78% / 60%	89% / 62%	67% / 70%	+27	+4.87% vs +3.35%
QCOM semis	8	50% / 52%	50% / 49%	75% / 48%	50% / 48%	+27	+6.78% vs -0.62%
AMAT semis	12	92% / 56%	75% / 59%	83% / 58%	67% / 67%	+26	+6.30% vs +1.67%
CRDO semis	9	78% / 53%	89% / 54%	78% / 54%	67% / 55%	+24	+7.80% vs +2.13%
ENTG semis	9	89% / 54%	89% / 56%	78% / 56%	44% / 60%	+22	+4.08% vs +1.90%
AVGO semis	4	50% / 52%	50% / 51%	75% / 54%	25% / 54%	+20	+2.25% vs +0.85%
ONTO semis	12	92% / 54%	75% / 54%	75% / 55%	67% / 66%	+20	+6.09% vs +1.30%
ADI semis	4	50% / 56%	75% / 56%	75% / 56%	50% / 56%	+19	+1.03% vs +0.90%
MU memory	17	53% / 56%	65% / 63%	82% / 65%	71% / 77%	+18	+6.09% vs +7.06%
KLAC semis	14	71% / 56%	71% / 59%	71% / 58%	64% / 64%	+13	+6.06% vs +1.73%
AMD semis	9	33% / 54%	56% / 60%	67% / 58%	78% / 59%	+9	+6.22% vs +2.74%
RMBS semis	7	57% / 52%	57% / 49%	57% / 48%	43% / 54%	+9	+4.50% vs -0.66%
ARM semis	13	54% / 52%	31% / 51%	62% / 53%	62% / 53%	+9	+0.90% vs +0.90%
ALAB semis	8	75% / 54%	75% / 57%	62% / 56%	62% / 55%	+6	+10.43% vs +3.17%
MCHP semis	4	25% / 48%	50% / 48%	50% / 44%	50% / 46%	+6	-1.24% vs -0.84%
SWKS semis	10	30% / 50%	50% / 47%	50% / 47%	40% / 55%	+3	-0.61% vs -0.67%
LSCC semis	5	60% / 51%	60% / 59%	60% / 59%	40% / 66%	+1	+3.13% vs +2.10%
MPWR semis	7	43% / 52%	43% / 54%	57% / 57%	43% / 60%	+0	+5.20% vs +1.57%
NTAP memory	9	33% / 52%	44% / 54%	56% / 57%	78% / 63%	-1	+0.94% vs +0.94%
NVDA semis	6	50% / 52%	50% / 55%	50% / 52%	33% / 62%	-2	-0.42% vs +0.38%
TSM semis	7	57% / 53%	57% / 59%	57% / 62%	43% / 71%	-5	+5.89% vs +1.68%
INTC semis	10	60% / 50%	70% / 53%	50% / 55%	60% / 65%	-5	-0.81% vs +1.72%
LITE semis	11	46% / 58%	54% / 62%	64% / 69%	73% / 75%	-5	+15.54% vs +7.06%
AMKR semis	12	42% / 53%	58% / 54%	50% / 58%	67% / 63%	-8	+0.82% vs +2.19%
STX memory	10	70% / 56%	50% / 62%	50% / 64%	70% / 74%	-14	+1.68% vs +4.57%
TXN semis	8	50% / 51%	25% / 52%	38% / 52%	38% / 52%	-14	-2.36% vs +0.33%
GFS semis	8	50% / 50%	50% / 51%	38% / 53%	62% / 53%	-15	-5.44% vs +0.49%
MRVL semis	12	58% / 55%	58% / 58%	42% / 58%	58% / 59%	-16	-1.52% vs +2.34%
COHR semis	9	33% / 59%	33% / 60%	44% / 63%	33% / 72%	-19	-5.34% vs +4.10%
WDC memory	11	54% / 58%	36% / 65%	46% / 67%	54% / 75%	-22	-2.13% vs +6.02%
SNDK memory	3	0% / 56%	0% / 64%	33% / 70%	67% / 77%	-37	-5.35% vs +11.43%
SMCI semis	5	60% / 47%	0% / 51%	0% / 51%	60% / 49%	-51	-3.46% vs +0.18%

Pooled — AI era (since Apr 1 2023)

Every event across the stocks in this window, against the same stocks on any day in the same window. Green = at least 5 points better than base.

Sample	+1 session	+5 sessions	+10 sessions	+21 sessions
All 36 stocks 724 events on 261 dates	49% / 52% -0.05% vs +0.13%	50% / 55% +0.10% vs +0.65%	57% / 56% +1.77% vs +1.33%	57% / 58% +2.28% vs +2.73%
Semis 621 events	50% +0.00%	51% +0.24%	58% +1.83%	56% +2.02%
Memory 103 events	44% -0.41%	47% -0.93%	55% +1.13%	58% +3.98%

By stock — sorted by the +10-session edge

Win % after a top-5 day / the stock's any-day base, both since Apr 1 2023. Click a row for its forward path. Samples per stock are small — read them as indicative.

Stock	Events	+1d win / base	+5d win / base	+10d win / base	+21d win / base	+10d edge	+10d median vs base
ENTG semis	20	70% / 51%	65% / 54%	75% / 53%	45% / 54%	+22	+4.01% vs +0.77%
AMAT semis	21	67% / 53%	67% / 57%	76% / 58%	67% / 63%	+18	+5.15% vs +1.73%
ALAB semis	10	70% / 52%	70% / 54%	70% / 53%	70% / 53%	+17	+10.43% vs +1.39%
ONTO semis	23	65% / 53%	65% / 55%	70% / 56%	56% / 62%	+14	+2.27% vs +1.40%
CRDO semis	24	71% / 53%	71% / 57%	71% / 57%	58% / 60%	+14	+8.45% vs +2.96%
NVDA semis	15	47% / 54%	40% / 58%	73% / 60%	53% / 66%	+13	+2.95% vs +2.06%
LSCC semis	16	50% / 49%	50% / 52%	62% / 52%	44% / 53%	+11	+3.74% vs +0.57%
AMD semis	19	53% / 52%	53% / 55%	63% / 53%	68% / 55%	+10	+3.80% vs +1.15%
MCHP semis	19	37% / 50%	37% / 48%	58% / 48%	58% / 46%	+10	+1.44% vs -0.37%
SWKS semis	19	32% / 51%	53% / 50%	58% / 48%	47% / 50%	+9	+1.01% vs -0.15%
TER semis	21	38% / 52%	52% / 56%	67% / 58%	71% / 63%	+9	+3.81% vs +2.02%
ASML semis	20	50% / 54%	60% / 56%	65% / 57%	65% / 60%	+8	+1.32% vs +1.14%
ON semis	21	43% / 50%	52% / 50%	57% / 50%	57% / 50%	+7	+1.58% vs -0.02%
KLAC semis	24	54% / 56%	58% / 58%	67% / 60%	58% / 66%	+6	+3.17% vs +1.84%
ARM semis	16	50% / 52%	25% / 54%	62% / 56%	62% / 58%	+6	+2.40% vs +2.02%
TSM semis	17	47% / 53%	47% / 58%	65% / 60%	71% / 68%	+5	+2.52% vs +1.89%
AVGO semis	19	47% / 53%	42% / 53%	63% / 59%	58% / 63%	+4	+1.62% vs +1.70%
QCOM semis	20	40% / 53%	45% / 53%	55% / 52%	45% / 53%	+3	+2.49% vs +0.31%
RMBS semis	20	30% / 51%	40% / 52%	55% / 52%	50% / 54%	+3	+1.68% vs +0.76%
LITE semis	29	48% / 54%	59% / 56%	62% / 59%	69% / 63%	+3	+6.25% vs +2.84%
MU memory	31	52% / 53%	52% / 56%	61% / 60%	48% / 64%	+1	+4.43% vs +3.00%
SMCI semis	19	53% / 49%	53% / 52%	53% / 54%	58% / 54%	-1	+0.13% vs +1.53%
NTAP memory	24	33% / 53%	42% / 57%	58% / 60%	67% / 61%	-2	+1.00% vs +1.26%
LRCX semis	20	55% / 53%	55% / 59%	60% / 62%	50% / 66%	-2	+2.06% vs +2.46%
STX memory	20	50% / 54%	60% / 60%	60% / 62%	75% / 68%	-2	+6.79% vs +2.51%
MPWR semis	19	47% / 53%	32% / 54%	53% / 58%	58% / 59%	-6	+2.13% vs +1.47%
NXPI semis	17	59% / 52%	47% / 53%	47% / 53%	47% / 51%	-6	-1.29% vs +0.47%
TXN semis	23	52% / 51%	44% / 52%	44% / 52%	44% / 52%	-9	-0.78% vs +0.31%
COHR semis	22	41% / 54%	36% / 57%	50% / 60%	54% / 63%	-10	-0.26% vs +2.98%
ADI semis	19	37% / 53%	32% / 53%	42% / 54%	53% / 54%	-12	-0.75% vs +0.60%
GFS semis	19	58% / 48%	58% / 48%	37% / 49%	47% / 46%	-12	-3.73% vs -0.13%
INTC semis	25	56% / 50%	64% / 50%	40% / 52%	48% / 57%	-12	-1.82% vs +0.57%
AMKR semis	22	46% / 52%	46% / 54%	41% / 54%	59% / 55%	-13	-2.31% vs +0.80%
MRVL semis	23	44% / 53%	44% / 56%	39% / 56%	56% / 59%	-17	-3.10% vs +1.37%
WDC memory	25	48% / 55%	40% / 62%	44% / 65%	48% / 70%	-21	-2.27% vs +3.25%
SNDK memory	3	0% / 55%	0% / 63%	33% / 68%	67% / 73%	-34	-5.35% vs +8.93%

Adjusted daily closes (Yahoo) through 2026-10-28. Events near the end of the sample have no forward window yet and are left out of the forward stats. Educational research, not advice.