Daily Testing — from signal to ranked trade idea

Every highlighted single-session signal across the range-close universe for the latest bar — hammers & shooting stars, the strict Reversal Day, Open & Go, and a new 2%/5% intraday-reversal screen — pooled, then each run through its own forward-return study. The best probability results become ranked trade ideas with a direction, the horizon where the edge is strongest, a structure, and a quarter-Kelly size.

2%/5% screen · bull = closed ≥+2% and ≥5 points off the session low (e.g. dumped −3% intraday, closed +2%); bear = closed ≤−2% and ≥5 points off the high. Probability = that name’s own history at the same setup (win-rate & median forward move); the edge must confirm the trade’s direction.

Candidates

22 bull · 16 bear

Ranked ideas

confirmed forward edge

Top idea

73% · +8.6% median

Session

October 29, 2026

latest settled bar

🎯 Top trade ideas · best probability first

Every idea passes the truth test on time-weighted history (2026 ×10 · Tariffs→2025 ×8 · Apr 2023→Tariffs ×6 · earlier ×1): a win-rate edge of +5 pts or more over the name’s own weighted base, with p < 0.10 on the weighted sample. Ranked by edge × median move, with a confluence bonus when a name trips more than one signal. Structure follows the STORM playbook; size is quarter-Kelly, capped.

1DEStockLONG🔨 Hammer ↩ 2%/5% Reversal · 2 signals

73% win+8.6% median~1 month (21d, n=30)¼-Kelly 3.0% NAVedge 16.26

Long calls — Slightly-ITM / ATM calls (~660.00), 4–8 weeks out. High odds + a 9% expected move — convex upside, risk = premium.

2FTNTStockLONG🔨 Hammer 🚀 Open & Go · 2 signals

79% win+4.74% median~1 month (21d, n=47)¼-Kelly 3.0% NAVedge 8.08

Short put spread (bull put) — Sell the 134.93 put, buy the 129.36 put (3–7% below spot). High-prob, modest move — win if it holds, rises, or dips slightly.

3MLMStockLONG↩ 2%/5% Reversal

79% win+3.25% median~2 weeks (10d, n=44)¼-Kelly 3.0% NAVedge 8.46

Long call spread — Buy ~ATM (534.39), sell ~551.76 (about the expected move wide). Strong edge, defined risk.

4PLTRStockLONG🔨 Hammer

68% win+7.91% median~1 month (21d, n=193)¼-Kelly 3.0% NAVedge 4.93

Long calls — Slightly-ITM / ATM calls (~196.42), 4–8 weeks out. High odds + a 8% expected move — convex upside, risk = premium.

5VMCStockLONG↩ 2%/5% Reversal

73% win+2.45% median~1 month (21d, n=45)¼-Kelly 0.25% NAVedge 4.08

Long call spread — Buy ~ATM (280.31), sell ~287.19 (about the expected move wide). Strong edge, defined risk.

6AVGOStockLONG🔨 Hammer

64% win+2.16% median~2 weeks (10d, n=378)¼-Kelly 0.25% NAVedge 1.05

Short put spread (bull put) — Sell the 334.65 put, buy the 320.85 put (3–7% below spot). High-prob, modest move — win if it holds, rises, or dips slightly.

7FCXStockLONG🔨 Hammer

59% win+1.84% median~2 weeks (10d, n=443)¼-Kelly 0.25% NAVedge 0.98

Long stock — Straight long; add on a pullback toward the 50-day. Moderate edge, no premium decay.

🧪 Master candidate list

Every bull/bear candidate detected this session, whether or not it cleared a forward edge. “Rev off” = points recovered off the low (bull) or faded off the high (bear).

Name	Signal(s)	Dir	Net	Rev off	Close-in-range
NOWStock	🚀 Open & Go ↩ 2%/5% Reversal	Short	-26.9%	7.9	8
FTNTStock	🔨 Hammer 🚀 Open & Go	Long	-20.1%	6.7	97
LHXStock	↩ 2%/5% Reversal	Long	+6.8%	6.1	86
VMCStock	↩ 2%/5% Reversal	Long	+5.8%	7.7	77
NXPIStock	↩ 2%/5% Reversal	Long	+5.7%	7.7	95
MLMStock	↩ 2%/5% Reversal	Long	+4.8%	5.5	72
GDStock	🚀 Open & Go	Long	+4.6%	3.1	100
CRMStock	🔨 Hammer	Long	-4.6%	2.4	66
LOWStock	🚀 Open & Go	Long	+4.5%	3.3	100
TTStock	🔨 Hammer	Long	-3.9%	4.7	94
FStock	↩ 2%/5% Reversal	Long	+3.4%	5.5	88
DEStock	🔨 Hammer ↩ 2%/5% Reversal	Long	+3.0%	5.4	90
EQIXStock	⭐ Star	Short	+2.9%	3.1	30
ORLYStock	⭐ Star	Short	-2.6%	5.0	23
IBMStock	🔨 Hammer	Long	+2.0%	4.1	100
AMGNStock	⭐ Star	Short	+2.0%	1.7	31
VRTXStock	⭐ Star	Short	+1.9%	1.2	38
AVGOStock	🔨 Hammer	Long	-1.9%	1.8	84
RTXStock	⭐ Star	Short	+1.8%	1.3	39
DLRStock	⭐ Star	Short	+1.7%	1.8	33
NOCStock	⭐ Star	Short	+1.7%	1.2	25
AMPStock	🔨 Hammer 🚀 Open & Go	Long	+1.7%	3.9	95
ACNStock	🔨 Hammer	Long	+1.6%	3.8	93
HIGStock	⭐ Star	Short	+1.6%	1.3	17
APHStock	⭐ Star	Short	+1.4%	2.2	36
VZStock	⭐ Star	Short	+1.1%	1.9	6
TRVStock	⭐ Star	Short	+1.1%	1.6	19
TStock	⭐ Star	Short	+1.1%	2.3	11
INTUStock	🔨 Hammer	Long	+0.9%	3.7	88
CARRStock	🔨 Hammer	Long	-0.9%	4.7	100
MELIStock	🔨 Hammer	Long	-0.8%	2.0	100
FCXStock	🔨 Hammer	Long	-0.7%	3.0	79
ADBEStock	🔨 Hammer	Long	-0.7%	2.7	91
BACStock	⭐ Star	Short	+0.6%	1.8	0
TMUSStock	⭐ Star	Short	-0.5%	3.7	11
ADSKStock	🔨 Hammer	Long	-0.3%	3.0	96
LRCXStock	⭐ Star	Short	+0.2%	2.4	31
PLTRStock	🔨 Hammer	Long	-0.2%	3.1	76

Forward studies use each name’s own daily history (rc_hist, from 2011). Win-rate and median are measured at 5/10/21 sessions and the strongest horizon is shown as the duration. Probability-based research on historical analogs — not a recommendation; base rates are odds, not promises, and regimes change.