Daily Testing
Reversal & trend candidates → forward-probability ideas · 18 ranked · August 31, 2026

Daily Testing — from signal to ranked trade idea

Every highlighted single-session signal across the range-close universe for the latest bar — hammers & shooting stars, the strict Reversal Day, Open & Go, and a new 2%/5% intraday-reversal screen — pooled, then each run through its own forward-return study. The best probability results become ranked trade ideas with a direction, the horizon where the edge is strongest, a structure, and a quarter-Kelly size.

2%/5% screen · bull = closed ≥+2% and ≥5 points off the session low (e.g. dumped −3% intraday, closed +2%); bear = closed ≤−2% and ≥5 points off the high. Probability = that name’s own history at the same setup (win-rate & median forward move); the edge must confirm the trade’s direction.
Candidates
34
18 bull · 16 bear
Ranked ideas
18
confirmed forward edge
Top idea
GEV
66% · +6.71% median
Session
August 31, 2026
latest settled bar

🎯 Top trade ideas · best probability first

Ranked by forward edge (win-rate × median move), with a confluence bonus when a name trips more than one signal. Structure follows the STORM playbook; size is quarter-Kelly, capped.
1GEVStockLONG🔨 Hammer
66% win+6.71% median~1 month (21d, n=82)¼-Kelly 3.0% NAVedge 4.26
Long calls — Slightly-ITM / ATM calls (~898.53), 4–8 weeks out. High odds + a 7% expected move — convex upside, risk = premium.
2HPEStockSHORT⭐ Star 🔁 Reversal Day · 2 signals
71% win+2.78% median~2 weeks (10d, n=17)¼-Kelly 1.78% NAVedge 2.29
Short call spread (bear call) — Sell the 53.81 call, buy the 55.90 call. High-prob fade — win if it drops, holds, or ticks up only.
3NDAQStockLONG🔨 Hammer
62% win+2.71% median~1 month (21d, n=256)¼-Kelly 0.25% NAVedge 1.36
Long call spread — Buy ~ATM (98.61), sell ~101.29 (about the expected move wide). Strong edge, defined risk.
4IDXXStockLONG🔨 Hammer
62% win+2.64% median~1 month (21d, n=383)¼-Kelly 0.25% NAVedge 1.25
Long stock — Straight long; add on a pullback toward the 50-day. Moderate edge, no premium decay.
5EQIXStockLONG🔨 Hammer
63% win+2.4% median~1 month (21d, n=362)¼-Kelly 0.25% NAVedge 1.22
Long call spread — Buy ~ATM (1046.72), sell ~1071.89 (about the expected move wide). Strong edge, defined risk.
6NOWStockLONG🔨 Hammer
60% win+3.09% median~1 month (21d, n=397)¼-Kelly 0.25% NAVedge 1.2
Long stock + short call (buy-write) — Own it; sell a call near 155.39 (~1 expected-move OTM). It’s +31% over its 50-day — take exposure but cap the chase.
7SREStockLONG🔨 Hammer
62% win+2.21% median~1 month (21d, n=237)¼-Kelly 0.25% NAVedge 1.1
Long call spread — Buy ~ATM (81.70), sell ~83.51 (about the expected move wide). Strong edge, defined risk.
8STXStockLONG🔨 Hammer
58% win+3.27% median~1 month (21d, n=409)¼-Kelly 0.25% NAVedge 1.01
Long stock — Straight long; add on a pullback toward the 50-day. Moderate edge, no premium decay.
9REGNStockLONG🔨 Hammer
59% win+2.66% median~1 month (21d, n=384)¼-Kelly 0.25% NAVedge 0.94
Long call spread — Buy ~ATM (799.08), sell ~820.37 (about the expected move wide). Strong edge, defined risk.
10EXCStockLONG🔨 Hammer
63% win+1.58% median~1 month (21d, n=272)¼-Kelly 0.25% NAVedge 0.81
Long stock — Straight long; add on a pullback toward the 50-day. Moderate edge, no premium decay.
11TSLAStockLONG🚀 Open & Go ↩ 2%/5% Reversal · 2 signals
58% win+1.91% median~2 weeks (10d, n=60)¼-Kelly 0.25% NAVedge 0.64
Long stock — Straight long; add on a pullback toward the 50-day. Moderate edge, no premium decay.
12BLKStockLONG🔨 Hammer
58% win+2.09% median~1 month (21d, n=322)¼-Kelly 0.25% NAVedge 0.65
Long stock — Straight long; add on a pullback toward the 50-day. Moderate edge, no premium decay.
13ELStockLONG🔨 Hammer
58% win+1.76% median~1 month (21d, n=327)¼-Kelly 0.25% NAVedge 0.55
Long stock + short call (buy-write) — Own it; sell a call near 107.42 (~1 expected-move OTM). It’s +18% over its 50-day — take exposure but cap the chase.
14MUStockLONG🚀 Open & Go
58% win+1.68% median~1 month (21d, n=64)¼-Kelly 0.25% NAVedge 0.52
Long stock — Straight long; add on a pullback toward the 50-day. Moderate edge, no premium decay.
15ADBEStockLONG🔨 Hammer
56% win+1.74% median~1 month (21d, n=359)¼-Kelly 0.25% NAVedge 0.42
Long stock + short call (buy-write) — Own it; sell a call near 307.43 (~1 expected-move OTM). It’s +21% over its 50-day — take exposure but cap the chase.
16ISRGStockLONG🔨 Hammer
56% win+1.49% median~1 month (21d, n=364)¼-Kelly 0.25% NAVedge 0.34
Long stock — Straight long; add on a pullback toward the 50-day. Moderate edge, no premium decay.
17WATStockLONG🔨 Hammer
55% win+1.05% median~1 month (21d, n=362)¼-Kelly 0.25% NAVedge 0.22
Long stock — Straight long; add on a pullback toward the 50-day. Moderate edge, no premium decay.
18VRTXStockLONG🔨 Hammer
54% win+0.5% median~1 month (21d, n=400)¼-Kelly 0.25% NAVedge 0.1
Long stock — Straight long; add on a pullback toward the 50-day. Moderate edge, no premium decay.

🧪 Master candidate list

Every bull/bear candidate detected this session, whether or not it cleared a forward edge. “Rev off” = points recovered off the low (bull) or faded off the high (bear).
NameSignal(s)DirNetRev offClose-in-range
AONStock↩ 2%/5% ReversalShort-9.5%6.16
TSLAStock🚀 Open & Go ↩ 2%/5% ReversalLong+5.5%6.096
COINStock↩ 2%/5% ReversalLong+5.3%6.486
SREStock🔨 HammerLong-3.1%2.571
MUStock🚀 Open & GoLong+2.8%3.096
NOWStock🔨 HammerLong+2.3%4.480
GEVStock🔨 HammerLong-1.5%1.875
FANGStock⭐ StarShort+1.4%2.232
ISRGStock🔨 HammerLong+1.1%3.196
EOGStock⭐ StarShort+1.1%1.731
TXNStock⭐ StarShort+0.9%0.639
BLKStock🔨 HammerLong-0.8%1.180
ELStock🔨 HammerLong-0.7%1.562
NDAQStock🔨 HammerLong-0.7%1.780
REGNStock🔨 HammerLong+0.6%2.584
CRMStock⭐ StarShort+0.6%1.940
RSGStock⭐ StarShort-0.5%1.41
VRTXStock🔨 HammerLong+0.5%2.384
EXCStock🔨 HammerLong-0.5%1.587
NXPIStock⭐ StarShort+0.5%1.235
TStock⭐ StarShort-0.5%1.38
APDStock⭐ StarShort+0.4%1.539
ADBEStock🔨 HammerLong+0.4%2.282
INTUStock⭐ StarShort+0.3%1.838
NUEStock⭐ StarShort-0.3%1.719
IDXXStock🔨 HammerLong+0.3%2.474
EQIXStock🔨 HammerLong+0.2%2.189
STXStock🔨 HammerLong-0.2%2.490
HPEStock⭐ Star 🔁 Reversal DayShort-0.1%3.02
ADIStock⭐ StarShort+0.1%1.34
GMStock⭐ StarShort+0.1%1.027
DELLStock⭐ Star 🔁 Reversal DayShort-0.1%4.10
INTCStock⭐ StarShort+0.0%2.619
WATStock🔨 HammerLong-0.0%2.188
Forward studies use each name’s own daily history (rc_hist, from 2011). Win-rate and median are measured at 5/10/21 sessions and the strongest horizon is shown as the duration. Probability-based research on historical analogs — not a recommendation; base rates are odds, not promises, and regimes change.
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