When a name opens on its highs and closes on its lows - what happens next, by regime
The setup: a new 20-day high intraday that reverses to close weak (opened in the top of the range, closed in the bottom) - the bearish reversal-at-the-highs that hit energy today. Each group is tested only inside its own regime, not all-time, because the tape that matters is regime-specific: energy since Mar 1 2026, semi/memory since Q3 2025, index since Oct 30 2023. Forward returns are close-to-close over 30 sessions. The headline question every card answers: is this reversal a shakeout (rebounds) or a top (follows through lower) in this regime? Click any name for its chart and read.
No reversal-at-highs triggers today - fires when a name makes a new 20-day high and closes weak.
Energy stocks
since Mar 1, 2026
86 reversal-at-highs events across 13/13 names - forward returns over 30 sessions
Per-name - most bearish forward first
Energy ETFs
since Mar 1, 2026
32 reversal-at-highs events across 5/5 names - forward returns over 30 sessions
Per-name - most bearish forward first
Semi / memory ETFs
since Q3 2025
30 reversal-at-highs events across 4/4 names - forward returns over 30 sessions
Per-name - most bearish forward first
Index (QQQ & index ETFs)
since Oct 30, 2023
145 reversal-at-highs events across 4/4 names - forward returns over 30 sessions
Per-name - most bearish forward first
Method. Event = a session whose high is a new 20-day high AND (open in the top 40% and close in the bottom 40% of the range, down on the day) OR a bearish outside reversal (high > prior high, close < prior close). Today's triggers use the intraday-built bar so they register before the daily EOD print lands. Forward returns are pooled within each group's regime window only - small samples are regime characterization, not powered results. Complements the Gap-Open Regime study. Educational, not advice.