Weekly Ideas
Weekly-bar reversal/trend signals with forward-return studies · October 28, 2026 · 7:36 PM ET

Weekly Ideas — the same reversal/trend family, read on the full weekly candle. For the week ending Oct 23, 2026, each name that printed a weekly hammer, star, reversal, open-&-go or 4%/10% intra-week reversal is run through its own weekly forward-return history. Every analog week is time-weighted by when it happened (2026 ×10 · Tariffs Apr 2025→2025 ×8 · Apr 2023→Tariffs ×6 · earlier ×1); win rate, median, the p25–p75 range AND the name’s own weekly base rate all use the same weights. An idea is shown only if it passes the truth test on that weighted sample: a win-rate edge of +5 pts or more over the weighted base with one-sided p < 0.10 on the effective n (the recency weights shrink the effective n on purpose). Ranked by edge × median move; size is quarter-Kelly on 50% + edge, capped at 3% NAV. 262 names printed a weekly pattern; 24 passed. Click any idea for its brief and the forward-return study (default view: Weighted 6 / 8 / 10).

#1
PH StockSHORT
Weekly Open & Go
81% win vs 34% · +47 pts · +4.05% med · ~1 month n=13 · eff 5.3 · p 0.01 · 3.0% NAV
Bear call spread
#2
ISRG StockLONG
4%/10% Reversal
88% win vs 56% · +32 pts · +4.39% med · ~1 month n=25 · eff 12.3 · p 0.01 · 3.0% NAV
Short put spread (bull put)
#3
SLB StockLONG
Weekly Open & Go
75% win vs 53% · +22 pts · +4.95% med · ~1 month n=29 · eff 12.8 · p 0.06 · 3.0% NAV
Long call spread
#4
STX StockSHORT
Weekly Reversal
66% win vs 36% · +30 pts · +3.15% med · ~1 month n=20 · eff 8.3 · p 0.04 · 3.0% NAV
Long put spread
#5
NDAQ StockLONG
4%/10% Reversal
93% win vs 58% · +35 pts · +2.63% med · ~1 week n=9 · eff 3.5 · p 0.10 · 3.0% NAV
Short put spread (bull put)
#6
PWR StockSHORT
4%/10% Reversal
67% win vs 43% · +24 pts · +3.61% med · ~1 week n=21 · eff 8.3 · p 0.07 · 3.0% NAV
Long put spread
#7
PANW StockLONG
4%/10% Reversal
77% win vs 61% · +16 pts · +3.03% med · ~3 weeks n=52 · eff 24.6 · p 0.04 · 0.25% NAV
Long call spread
#8
NOC StockLONG
Weekly Open & Go
78% win vs 55% · +23 pts · +2.0% med · ~2 weeks n=18 · eff 8.4 · p 0.10 · 0.25% NAV
Short put spread (bull put)
#9
COIN StockSHORT
Weekly Star
61% win vs 54% · +7 pts · +2.88% med · ~3 weeks n=126 · eff 87.5 · p 0.09 · 0.25% NAV
Long put spread
#10
LMT StockLONG
Weekly Open & Go
89% win vs 56% · +33 pts · +0.58% med · ~2 weeks n=9 · eff 4.6 · p 0.08 · 0.25% NAV
Short put spread (bull put)
#11
BKR StockLONG
Weekly Hammer
63% win vs 54% · +9 pts · +1.79% med · ~2 weeks n=316 · eff 137.1 · p 0.02 · 0.25% NAV
Long call spread
#12
URI StockLONG
Weekly Hammer
66% win vs 59% · +7 pts · +2.02% med · ~2 weeks n=359 · eff 155.3 · p 0.03 · 0.25% NAV
Long call spread
#13
QCOM StockLONG
Weekly Hammer
62% win vs 54% · +8 pts · +1.1% med · ~1 week n=345 · eff 146.8 · p 0.03 · 0.25% NAV
Long call spread
#14
ABNB StockSHORT
Weekly Star
54% win vs 46% · +8 pts · +0.99% med · ~2 weeks n=105 · eff 74.3 · p 0.09 · 0.25% NAV
Bear call spread
#15
NFLX StockSHORT
Weekly Star
53% win vs 47% · +6 pts · +1.35% med · ~3 weeks n=306 · eff 130.8 · p 0.10 · 0.25% NAV
Bear call spread
#16
ACN StockLONG
Weekly Hammer
62% win vs 54% · +8 pts · +0.95% med · ~2 weeks n=391 · eff 162.4 · p 0.03 · 0.25% NAV
Long call spread
#17
BSX StockLONG
Weekly Hammer
58% win vs 53% · +5 pts · +1.27% med · ~1 month n=372 · eff 170.7 · p 0.07 · 0.25% NAV
Long call spread
#18
DVN StockLONG
Weekly Hammer
61% win vs 54% · +7 pts · +1.06% med · ~1 week n=321 · eff 135.7 · p 0.06 · 0.25% NAV
Short put spread (bull put)
#19
IJR ETFLONG
Weekly Hammer
67% win vs 62% · +5 pts · +1.38% med · ~1 month n=370 · eff 158.5 · p 0.10 · 0.25% NAV
Short put spread (bull put)
#20
CTVA StockSHORT
Weekly Star
57% win vs 45% · +12 pts · +0.51% med · ~1 week n=108 · eff 65.5 · p 0.03 · 0.25% NAV
Bear call spread
#21
ICE StockLONG
Weekly Hammer
61% win vs 56% · +5 pts · +1.06% med · ~2 weeks n=391 · eff 174.2 · p 0.09 · 0.25% NAV
Short put spread (bull put)
#22
ABT StockLONG
Weekly Hammer
58% win vs 52% · +6 pts · +0.86% med · ~2 weeks n=371 · eff 159.2 · p 0.06 · 0.25% NAV
Short put spread (bull put)
#23
HD StockLONG
Weekly Hammer
58% win vs 52% · +6 pts · +0.67% med · ~1 week n=359 · eff 149.8 · p 0.07 · 0.25% NAV
Short put spread (bull put)
#24
MCHP StockSHORT
Weekly Star
52% win vs 46% · +6 pts · +0.54% med · ~1 week n=292 · eff 131.7 · p 0.07 · 0.25% NAV
Long put spread
Select an idea for its brief and forward-return study.
AlphaQuery · Weekly forward-return study
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Regime since
Median (bold) with the p25–p75 band (time-weighted in the Weighted view) and up to 40 direction-adjusted analog paths. Educational — not investment advice.