What happens after a significant gap — hour by hour, over the next 10 sessions

The backdrop: oil and a growth-slowdown note gapped the index lower, semis & memory much more, and a bid ran into energy & refiners. This study pools every gap open (open vs prior close) that clears a group's threshold, then chains the cumulative forward return in 60-minute windows across the next 10 sessions. Each group reads inside its own regime — semi / AI / index since Oct 1 2025, energy since Mar 1 2026. The landing line is absolute; toggle to relative to QQQ (name minus the index backdrop). The heatmap is the median cumulative return at each session × time-of-day cell. Tested direction: down-gaps (index −1.25% · tech ETFs −3% · tech names −5%) test the bounce; up-gaps (energy +3%) test the continuation. Mirror lens: the same universes and regimes with the thresholds flipped — tech / index gapping up (+1.25 / +3 / +5%) tests continuation, energy gapping down (−3%) tests the bounce — so a morning like Sep 16 (semis up into strength, energy down after the run) gets a forward-path read too.