Alpha Query — Pairs / Spread Lab

Spread Screener — every pair ranked by how stretched the ratio is (click any header to sort, any row to explore)

Pair	Ratio	21d %	65d %	200d %	Spread Z	Signal
XMMO/MDY MidCap Momentum vs MidCap	0.208	-3.7%	-6.2%	-10.2%	-2.5	cheap → long A / short B
GDX/GDXJ GDX vs GDXJ	0.804	+1.7%	+3.5%	+5.0%	+2.2	rich → fade (short A / long B)
AIWIN/AIRISK AI Winners vs AI At-Risk (GS de-grossing)	0.810	+5.2%	+10.8%	+23.5%	+1.9	leaning rich
XLE/TAN XLE vs TAN	1.670	+7.5%	+21.7%	+52.6%	+1.7	leaning rich
NQ=F/CL=F Nasdaq fut vs Crude oil	291.686	-9.8%	-16.7%	-23.6%	-1.7	leaning cheap
XMMO/MTUM Mid vs Large Momentum	0.458	-2.0%	-6.6%	-14.2%	-1.6	leaning cheap
SPY/XLV SPY vs XLV	4.297	-3.3%	-4.6%	-6.9%	-1.6	leaning cheap
QUAL/USMV Quality vs Min-Vol	2.168	-2.9%	-2.7%	-1.2%	-1.5	leaning cheap
META/QQQ META vs QQQ	0.844	-12.0%	-5.6%	-10.0%	-1.4	leaning cheap
SPYV/SPMO Value vs Momentum	0.442	+3.1%	+4.1%	+0.2%	+1.4	leaning rich
GC=F/^DJI Gold vs Dow	0.077	-3.3%	-6.1%	-15.5%	-1.3	leaning cheap
SPMO/SPY SPMO vs SPY	0.188	-1.4%	-2.8%	-0.7%	-1.2	leaning cheap
MTUM/USMV Momentum vs Min-Vol	2.949	-3.4%	-3.8%	-1.5%	-1.2	leaning cheap
EEM/SPY EEM vs SPY	0.082	-2.4%	-4.6%	-6.3%	-1.2	leaning cheap
SPY/XLI SPY vs XLI	4.584	-0.0%	+3.9%	+9.0%	+1.2	leaning rich
MTUM/SPYV MTUM vs SPYV	4.738	-3.4%	-3.3%	-1.5%	-1.2	leaning cheap
GC=F/^GSPC Gold vs S&P 500	0.523	-2.3%	-6.9%	-17.5%	-1.2	leaning cheap
AIRISK/SMH AI Infra At-Risk vs Semis	15.367	-2.3%	-4.1%	-7.2%	-1.2	leaning cheap
XLI/SPY XLI vs SPY	0.218	+0.0%	-3.9%	-8.5%	-1.2	leaning cheap
SPY/XLE SPY vs XLE	11.283	-3.2%	-6.8%	-10.3%	-1.2	leaning cheap
SPYV/SPY Value vs SPY	0.083	+1.8%	+1.3%	-0.0%	+1.1	leaning rich
MTUM/RSP MTUM vs S&P500 EW	1.396	-3.2%	-2.1%	-0.4%	-1.1	leaning cheap
KBWB/XLF KBWB vs XLF	1.588	-0.2%	-3.4%	-3.7%	-1.1	leaning cheap
USMV/SPY Min-Vol vs SPY	0.133	+1.7%	+1.8%	-0.2%	+1.0	leaning rich
IWF/IWD IWF vs IWD	0.475	-3.0%	-2.0%	-5.9%	-1.0	leaning cheap
GDXJ/GLD GDXJ vs GLD	0.280	-2.7%	-5.9%	-2.4%	-1.0	neutral
KBWB/KRE KBWB vs KRE	1.236	-0.4%	-2.5%	-1.3%	-1.0	neutral
Σ6/KRE US big banks vs KRE (regionals)	23.759	-0.1%	-3.3%	-3.3%	-0.9	neutral
MTUM/SPY Momentum vs SPY	0.393	-1.6%	-2.0%	-1.4%	-0.9	neutral
XLK/XLE XLK vs XLE	2.790	-4.2%	-6.2%	-4.4%	-0.9	neutral
AIWIN/SMH AI Winners vs Semis (Software vs Semis proxy)	12.455	+3.0%	+6.4%	+15.1%	+0.9	neutral
QUAL/SPY Quality vs SPY	0.289	-1.1%	-0.9%	-1.3%	-0.9	neutral
SMH/SPYV SMH vs SPYV	8.862	-4.1%	-2.8%	+3.2%	-0.9	neutral
GC=F/^NDX Gold vs Nasdaq 100	0.136	-1.2%	-6.6%	-18.7%	-0.9	neutral
SMH/IWD SMH vs IWD	2.194	-3.8%	-2.4%	+0.7%	-0.9	neutral
AAPL/QQQ AAPL vs QQQ	0.474	+2.0%	+4.6%	+8.8%	+0.9	neutral
EMXC/SPY EMXC vs SPY	0.122	-2.0%	-3.5%	-2.8%	-0.9	neutral
FXI/SPY FXI vs SPY	0.042	-3.2%	-7.1%	-14.8%	-0.9	neutral
KBWB/SPY KBWB vs SPY	0.115	+1.8%	-4.5%	-5.0%	-0.8	neutral
SPHB/SPLV High-beta vs Low-vol	1.926	-4.3%	-3.3%	+3.2%	-0.8	neutral
IJR/IWM IJR vs IWM	0.497	+0.1%	+0.7%	+1.1%	+0.8	neutral
SMH/SMHEW SMH vs Semis EW (mega-cap premium)	0.092	-0.3%	-1.3%	-2.5%	-0.8	neutral
SMHEW/SMH Semis EW vs SMH (concentration premium)	10.913	+0.3%	+1.3%	+2.4%	+0.8	neutral
SMH/QQQE Semis vs Nasdaq EW	4.736	-2.0%	-0.4%	+3.7%	-0.8	neutral
GLD/QQQ GLD vs QQQ	0.515	-0.2%	-5.3%	-16.7%	-0.8	neutral
SOXX/SPYV SOXX vs SPYV	8.148	-4.4%	-3.6%	+3.8%	-0.7	neutral
SPY/RSP SPY vs S&P500 EW	3.552	-1.5%	-0.0%	+1.1%	-0.7	neutral
XLP/SPY XLP vs SPY	0.112	+2.0%	+2.0%	-2.6%	+0.7	neutral
SMH/SPY Semis vs S&P	0.735	-2.3%	-1.5%	+3.5%	-0.7	neutral
XLG/RSP XLG vs S&P500 EW	0.292	-2.2%	+0.1%	-0.3%	-0.7	neutral
^GVZ/^VIX Gold vol vs equity vol	1.355	-1.6%	-12.5%	-13.2%	-0.7	neutral
^GSPC/RSP S&P 500 vs S&P500 EW	35.635	-1.5%	-0.1%	+0.7%	-0.7	neutral
RSP/^GSPC S&P500 EW vs S&P 500	0.028	+1.5%	+0.1%	-0.7%	+0.7	neutral
QQQ/QQQE QQQ vs Nasdaq EW	6.054	-1.0%	+0.8%	+0.7%	-0.7	neutral
MTUM/VLUE Momentum vs Enhanced Value	1.528	-2.3%	-1.1%	-6.6%	-0.7	neutral
SPY/XLB SPY vs XLB	14.892	-3.0%	-0.7%	+4.0%	-0.7	neutral
^NDX/^GSPC Nasdaq 100 vs S&P 500	3.849	-1.2%	-0.3%	+0.9%	-0.6	neutral
IWM/TLT IWM vs TLT	3.473	-0.9%	-2.7%	+4.1%	-0.6	neutral
QQQ/SPY QQQ vs SPY	0.940	-1.2%	-0.3%	+0.7%	-0.6	neutral
VLUE/SPYV Enhanced vs Plain Value	3.101	-1.1%	-2.2%	+5.1%	-0.6	neutral
SPLV/SPY Low-Vol vs SPY	0.097	+2.4%	+0.7%	-4.5%	+0.6	neutral
COPX/GLD Copper miners vs Gold	0.206	-3.9%	-5.9%	+1.6%	-0.6	neutral
HYG/LQD High-yield vs Inv-grade	0.746	-0.5%	-0.5%	+1.3%	-0.6	neutral
QQQ/IWV QQQ vs IWV	1.659	-1.3%	-0.1%	+1.1%	-0.5	neutral
SPY/HD SPY vs HD	2.432	-5.1%	-0.1%	+10.1%	-0.5	neutral
SPY/EWC SPY vs EWC	12.556	-2.6%	-0.7%	+0.6%	-0.5	neutral
EWC/SPY EWC vs SPY	0.080	+2.6%	+0.7%	-0.7%	+0.5	neutral
RSP/QQQE S&P500 EW vs Nasdaq EW	1.814	+1.7%	+1.1%	-1.2%	+0.5	neutral
SPY/TLT SPY vs TLT	9.536	-2.1%	+0.3%	+9.3%	-0.5	neutral
GDX/GLD GDX vs GLD	0.225	-1.0%	-2.6%	+2.5%	-0.5	neutral
XLK/XLP XLK vs XLP	2.199	-3.2%	-1.5%	+8.7%	-0.5	neutral
^MOVE/^VIX Bond vol vs equity vol	5.591	-9.6%	+4.0%	+29.3%	+0.4	neutral
^TNX/^GSPC US 10Y yield vs S&P 500	0.001	-2.4%	+1.7%	+4.8%	+0.4	neutral
GLD/GDX GLD vs GDX	4.449	+1.0%	+2.3%	-2.8%	+0.4	neutral
SMHEW/SPY Semis EW vs S&P	8.021	-2.0%	-0.2%	+5.5%	-0.4	neutral
XLY/XLP XLY vs XLP	1.328	+0.1%	-1.8%	-3.8%	-0.4	neutral
^RUT/^GSPC Russell 2000 vs S&P 500	0.365	+1.2%	-3.1%	-4.9%	-0.4	neutral
IWM/SPY Small vs Large	0.364	+1.2%	-3.1%	-4.8%	-0.4	neutral
SPY/IWM SPY vs IWM	2.746	-1.2%	+3.1%	+5.0%	+0.4	neutral
^RUI/^RUT Russell 1000 vs Russell 2000	1.488	-1.2%	+3.0%	+4.8%	+0.3	neutral
SLV/SIL SLV vs SIL	0.633	-0.8%	-0.6%	-10.9%	-0.3	neutral
SPY/XHB SPY vs XHB	7.883	-1.7%	+3.3%	+13.2%	+0.3	neutral
PSCE/IJR PSCE vs IJR	0.430	-0.2%	+1.5%	+1.7%	+0.3	neutral
SPY/XLF SPY vs XLF	13.759	-1.9%	+1.0%	+1.2%	-0.3	neutral
^OVX/^VIX Oil vol vs equity vol	3.465	+11.5%	+5.7%	+2.6%	+0.3	neutral
NEM/GC=F NEM vs Gold	0.028	+1.2%	+2.9%	+15.0%	+0.3	neutral
ES=F/ZN=F S&P fut vs 10Y note fut	73.448	-0.8%	+0.9%	+7.7%	-0.2	neutral
SPY/XLRE SPY vs XLRE	18.332	-0.9%	+2.9%	+8.0%	+0.2	neutral
XLG/IJR XLG vs IJR	0.455	-1.9%	+2.4%	+2.4%	-0.2	neutral
^VVIX/^VIX Vol-of-vol vs VIX	5.683	+1.2%	-0.5%	+3.8%	+0.2	neutral
NEM/GLD NEM vs GLD	0.305	+0.2%	+1.4%	+12.2%	+0.1	neutral
VXX/VXZ VIX term structure (short vs mid)	0.384	-0.3%	-1.5%	-17.8%	+0.1	neutral
KRE/SPY KRE vs SPY	0.093	+2.2%	-2.0%	-3.7%	-0.1	neutral
MSTR/BTC-USD MSTR vs Bitcoin	0.002	-1.5%	+5.0%	-2.3%	-0.1	neutral
HD/WMT HD vs WMT	2.674	+0.8%	-6.6%	-4.9%	+0.1	neutral
^VIX/^VXN S&P vs Nasdaq implied vol	0.713	+0.1%	+0.4%	-4.0%	-0.1	neutral
KRE/QQQ KRE vs QQQ	0.099	+3.4%	-1.7%	-4.6%	+0.1	neutral
^SKEW/^VIX Tail risk (SKEW) vs VIX	8.796	-3.4%	-4.0%	+7.9%	-0.0	neutral
MSTR/IBIT MSTR vs IBIT	3.146	-1.7%	+4.7%	-2.5%	+0.0	neutral
^NDX/^RUT Nasdaq 100 vs Russell 2000	10.538	-2.4%	+2.8%	+6.0%	-0.0	neutral
SPY/XLU SPY vs XLU	18.176	-2.2%	-0.2%	+9.4%	-0.0	neutral
VLUE/SPY Enhanced Value vs SPY	0.257	+0.7%	-1.0%	+5.3%	-0.0	neutral
BTC-USD/MSTR Bitcoin vs MSTR	559.667	+1.3%	-5.5%	+0.8%	+0.0	neutral
QQQ/IWM QQQ vs IWM	2.580	-2.4%	+2.7%	+5.7%	-0.0	neutral

Ratio = A / B. Cells shaded green (A above the MA) / red (below) by magnitude. Spread-Z = composite of the three MA-distance Z-scores vs 3-yr history; |Z| ≥ 2 (red) = a statistical extreme. Default order = most-stretched first. Click a row to open the Pair Explorer.

Pair Explorer — the ratio's distance from a moving average over time, with its own ±2σ bands

Pair

MA window:

Rolling return:

Top: distance of the ratio from the selected MA (dashed = the pair's historical mean and ±2σ; poking outside the band = the spread was stretched — the same condition the spread-Z flags). Bottom: the ratio's trailing 10 / 21 / 65 / 130-day rolling return over time with its own mean and ±2σ bands — click a horizon to switch.

🎯 Ask the Spread — "when the rolling return breaches a level, what did the ratio do next?"

When the rolling return

% since

An event study on the selected pair: pick a rolling-return window, a direction and a level, and every session the ratio's rolling return first breached it seeds a forward 1–30 session path — faint spaghetti, bold median with the 25–75 band, and (indigo) the most recent still-open instance. Data since 2018 (rolling window needs lookback).

🔔 Fresh Ratio Crosses — pairs whose ratio crossed its 21-day MA in the last two sessions

Show:

A ratio cross = the spread closed on the opposite side of its 21-day MA vs the prior session. Up = A gaining on B; down = A losing to B. Trend-aligned (★) = the 65 & 200-day ratio MAs were already on the new side (a stronger momentum turn). Click a row to explore the pair.

🎯 Threshold Lab — "the spread just hit X% from its MA — what happened next?"

Pair

MA:

Level %

breached:

Since Regime

Type any level and pick a direction: a breach is the session the ratio's distance from the chosen MA first crosses that level (from below for "≥ above", from above for "≤ below"). Each faint strand is the forward 1–30 session path of the ratio from a breach; bold dashed = median with the 25–75 band; the indigo line is the most recent (still-open) instance, if any. Distance and forward returns are computed live in your browser, so any level / start year is instant. Data since 2018 (MA needs lookback); pick the sample start above.

➕ Custom Pair — build any ratio A / B and study it (type any two tickers)

Numerator (A)
/ Denominator (B)

MA:

Rolling return:

Type two tickers (US stocks or ETFs) and hit Run. Anything in our tracked set is instant; anything else is fetched live.

The ratio A / B is run through the same lens as the curated pairs: its distance from the moving average (dashed = mean and ±2σ) and the trailing 10 / 21 / 65 / 130-day rolling return over time with its own ±2σ bands (click a horizon to switch). The query box then runs an event study on the spread itself: pick a rolling-return window, a direction and a level, and every session the ratio's rolling return first breached it seeds a forward 1–30 session path — the faint spaghetti, the bold median with the 25–75 band, and (indigo) the most recent still-open instance. In-universe pairs use ~2018-on daily history; live-fetched tickers span ~6 years. Educational, not advice.

Use A / B as a signal and see what an index or factor ETF does next.

🎯 Regime Lab — when a volatility / correlation signal hits an extreme, what does a benchmark do next?

Signal spread /

Window Benchmark Horizon Start from

Pick a volatility / correlation signal (or any custom spread) and an index or factor ETF as the benchmark: when the signal sits in its rich/cheap decile, this charts the benchmark's forward path (faint spaghetti, bold indigo median, 25–75 band) against its own unconditional baseline (grey dashed), with the edge, win rate, and n. The state line flags whether the signal is at an extreme right now. Signal choices: distance from the 65d MA, 21-day rolling return, or the 63-day correlation of the two legs (a dispersion read). The edge is only real where the conditioned path separates from the baseline and n is large enough to trust. Educational, not advice.

What This Measures

Each pair is a relative-value spread expressed as a price ratio R = A / B. We run the same moving-average machinery on the ratio that the MA Stretch Lab runs on a single name: the percentage distance of R from its 21, 65 and 200-day moving averages, each Z-scored against the pair's own 3-year history so "stretched" is normalized per pair. The composite spread-Z averages the three windows.

How to Read the Signal

High positive spread-Z (≥ +2) = A has run rich relative to B versus its own history — a mean-reversion fade (short A / long B).
High negative spread-Z (≤ −2) = A is cheap relative to B — accumulate the spread (long A / short B).
The Pair Explorer charts the ratio's distance-from-MA over time with the pair's own ±2σ bands, and a forward-return spaghetti: what the spread did over the next 1–30 sessions the last time it was this stretched.
Fresh Ratio Crosses flags pairs whose ratio just crossed its 21-day MA — momentum turns in the spread.

Caveats

Distance from a moving average is a positioning gauge, not a directional forecast — a spread can stay stretched for a long time in a genuine regime shift (e.g. a secular growth-over-value trend). Pairs are equal-dollar ratios, not beta- or cointegration-weighted; treat this as a relative-value watchlist, not a turnkey stat-arb system. Commodities use liquid ETFs (GLD, SLV, USO, GDX, CPER, DBC) as tradeable proxies. History since 2010 where available; new listings show a ratio but a shorter Z window.