| Horizon | n | Median | Mean | Win% | p25 / p75 | Worst max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w | 13 | -0.4% | -1.2% | 46% | -2.2 / +0.9 | -8.7% |
| 2w | 13 | -3.2% | -4.6% | 23% | -4.8 / -0.2 | -20.9% |
| 4w | 13 | -0.6% | -2.7% | 46% | -7.0 / +2.5 | -20.9% |
| 8w | 13 | +0.3% | -0.7% | 54% | -10.5 / +9.0 | -20.9% |
| 13w | 13 | +0.8% | +5.8% | 54% | -5.2 / +19.9 | -20.9% |
| 26w | 13 | +6.5% | +14.2% | 62% | -1.3 / +23.6 | -24.0% |
| Cohort | 4w med | win | 13w med | win | 26w med | win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003–11 supercycle n=9 | +0.9% | 56% | +2.2% | 67% | +15.0% | 56% |
| 2024–26 modern (tariff) n=4 | -8.0% | 25% | -5.2% | 25% | +5.1% | 75% |
Across 13 completed events since 2000 (record weekly close while the week's high stayed below the prior record intraday high, de-clustered to one per 8 weeks), the modal path is exactly what the briefing claimed: weakness first, resolution later. The 2-week median is -3.2% (23% win — the "sell-the-record" dip), the drawdown runs as deep as -24% inside the first six months, and only by 26 weeks does it clear to +6.5% median / +14.2% mean (62% win). Fading the breakout and buying the structural dip is the empirically-supported expression — not chasing the record close.
Split by regime, the character changes. The 2003–11 supercycle cohort (n=9) resolved powerfully: +15% median at 26 weeks. The 2024–26 modern cohort (n=4) is a different animal — deeper near-term pain (-8.0% at 4 weeks, 25% win at 13 weeks) and a flat six-month resolution: median +5.1% but mean +2.3%. The upside the deck leans on is real in the supercycle and close to a coin-flip in the tariff era. That argues for the deck's own risk discipline — small size, hedge the tail — even harder, because the modern edge barely clears zero.
On our data copper is not printing a live event this week. The last record-close-under-resistance fired 2026-07-31 (5 weeks ago) at ~6.44; price has since pulled back to 6.694, now 0.8% below the ATH (6.750) — squarely on the modal post-event drawdown (the red dashed "live run" on the chart). The deck's structural-dip entry zone, 7–15% below the record close, is roughly 5.69–6.23. The watch stays on WAIT: accumulate into that zone on LME confirmation, stand down on a weekly close below the ~6.14 shelf.