RVX Duration Edge — Low-Vol Regime Tracker (IWM)
When the Russell 2000 vol index (RVX) closes below 20 and stays there, small caps grind higher — the edge is the duration. Live-tracking the current sub-20 streak & the day-11 trigger · Data through August 31, 2026 · Updated August 31, 2026 · 6:49 PM ET
RVX (last close)
18.80
below 20 ✓
Sub-20 streak
7d
4 to the day-11 trigger
Regime
BUILDING
Approaching the filter
IWM since streak
-2.0%
small-cap move in the regime
📄 Download client brief (PDF) 📑 Source research deck
BUILDING (Days 6-10)
Approaching the filter — hold fire
RVX 18.80 · August 31, 2026
79 prior streaks · avg 18.9 days · +2.86% over-streak
Day 7 of 11 · 4 sessions to the trigger
0Day 2Day 6Day 11 · trigger16+
The RVX Duration Edge tracks how long the Russell 2000 volatility index (RVX) has held below 20. A sub-20 RVX is a low-vol backdrop that has historically favoured small caps — but the research's key claim is that duration is the edge: the signal "crystallizes" once the streak survives to day 11. This page live-counts the current streak and the countdown to that trigger. RVX just closed at 18.80, putting us on day 7 of a sub-20 streak — 4 sessions from the day-11 trigger.
AQI regime classification matrix
Streak durationWin probMarket stateStrategic action
2–5 days≈53%Fragile / mean-revertingWait & observe
6–10 daysbuildingFilter formingHold fire
11–15 days>92%*Crystallized signalDeploy long IWM delta
16+ dayshigh continuationSelf-sustaining trendRide & trail stops
Your current position is highlighted. *The >92% headline is an over-the-streak figure — see the validation below.
Validation on our data — and the honest caveat
Streak lastedn% up over streakmeanfwd-10d win
2–5 days3073%+1.14%63%
6–10 days1662%+0.97%49%
11–15 days12100%+3.73%50%
16+ days2190%+6.26%53%
Reproduced on CBOE RVX + IWM, 2009–2026: 79 sub-20 streaks, avg 18.9 days, +2.86% mean over-streak IWM return.
Read the number correctly. The ">92% at days 11–15" is the return measured over a streak that turned out to last that long — a low-vol regime that persists 11+ days is, almost by construction, one where small caps ground higher, and you can't know at day 11 that it won't break on day 12. That is survivorship-conditioned. The cleaner, tradeable measure — the forward 10-day IWM return from a given streak-day (last column) — is far more muted (~50%). So treat day 11 as regime confirmation (a durable low-vol, bullish-small-cap backdrop worth a longer IWM hold), not a 92%-win timing entry.
The trade, at the day-11 trigger
DeskAction once RVX has closed < 20 for 11 sessions
Equity PMsRotate into small-cap (IWM) long delta — the regime favours a multi-week hold (avg streak resolves ~18.9 days).
Options / volSell IWM puts or put spreads — the established low-vol regime supports premium collection with limited downside-expansion risk.
Risk mgmtExpand risk limits on existing longs; pivot from entry to trend-riding once past day 16, and trail stops as the streak approaches its ~18.9-day average.
Invalidation: a daily RVX close back above 20 ends the streak and the regime — the whole thesis resets. Source: AQI RVX Duration Edge brief & the RVX & IWM findings doc. This live study re-counts the streak every build.