Alpha Query — Reversal & Trend

A cleaner reversal than a strict outside bar: any asset that traded down ≥2% intraday and closed up ≥2% (a bullish ≥4% reversal), or up ≥2% and closed down ≥2% (bearish) — on a day or a week bar. Each is read through the 200-day trend: a bullish reversal in a downtrend is a ↩ short-covering bounce; a bearish reversal in an uptrend is ⚠ exhaustion. Crucially, the Edge ★ is that instrument's forward return after prior reversals of the same direction AND trend — so the read is tested, not assumed, and Trade takes its direction from that edge. Click any row 📈 for the forward-return paths + this occurrence live.

Frame: Setup:

Instrument	Class	Frame	Setup	Swing	Ago	Trade	n	20d med	20d win	Edge ★	→

Swing = the reversal size (adverse extreme → close), % of the prior close. Setup reads the reversal through the trend; the Trade / Edge is the empirical answer from that instrument's prior same-direction, same-trend reversals (small n = anecdote). A bullish downtrend reversal with a positive edge is short-covering that historically worked; a bearish uptrend reversal with a negative edge is exhaustion that historically followed through. Click a row for the forward paths + the live occurrence.