Alpha Query — MA Stretch Monitor

Index Distance From 21 / 65 / 130 / 200-Day Moving Averages

Green = above the average (extended up), red = below (extended down). Read across a row to see how an index sits across tactical-to-primary trend windows; read down a column to compare size/style cohorts at one horizon. Click any cell to open that index's stretch-history chart.

Participation — % of Top Names Above Each MA

Healthy regimes show >50% across all four windows. An index above its 200d while fewer than half its members are = a narrow, fragile tape.

Top 100 Stocks by Market Cap — Distance From MAs (click any header to sort)

Ticker	Last	21d %	65d %	130d %	200d %	Comp Z
NVDA	220.78	+1.2%	+5.6%	+9.3%	+12.8%	-0.3
MSFT	507.29	+2.8%	+18.7%	+22.6%	+18.1%	+1.5
AAPL	316.85	+2.2%	+2.3%	+9.2%	+12.2%	+0.3
GOOGL	339.35	-3.0%	-3.9%	-1.6%	+1.4%	-0.9
AMZN	259.77	-2.5%	+3.5%	+6.3%	+8.8%	-0.2
META	572.34	-0.6%	-3.3%	-5.9%	-7.9%	-0.8
AVGO	370.34	-5.1%	-5.3%	-2.7%	+0.5%	-1.3
TSLA	367.95	+8.2%	-0.8%	-3.7%	-8.1%	-0.1
BRK-B	504.03	-0.9%	+1.2%	+3.0%	+2.4%	-0.3
LLY	1,156.73	-3.6%	-1.2%	+8.6%	+9.4%	-0.4
JPM	356.02	-0.6%	+4.9%	+11.7%	+12.9%	+0.1
WMT	104.87	-4.5%	-7.2%	-12.2%	-11.2%	-2.1
V	379.37	+2.6%	+8.2%	+14.2%	+14.3%	+1.2
ORCL	149.12	+1.4%	-4.6%	-7.2%	-11.9%	-0.4
MA	589.31	+2.2%	+10.0%	+13.5%	+11.5%	+1.3
NFLX	81.05	+4.4%	+6.2%	-4.6%	-7.4%	-0.2
XOM	160.95	+1.3%	+7.8%	+6.6%	+13.2%	+0.5
COST	943.89	-0.8%	-0.7%	-3.4%	-1.4%	-0.8
JNJ	265.85	+1.0%	+5.7%	+9.8%	+14.7%	+0.5
HD	327.83	-3.9%	-2.3%	-1.5%	-4.1%	-0.7
PG	145.12	+0.1%	-0.7%	-0.5%	-0.5%	-0.2
ABBV	256.42	+0.9%	+4.8%	+12.8%	+13.9%	+0.5
BAC	61.94	-1.7%	+3.9%	+12.7%	+14.0%	+0.1
KO	88.67	+0.2%	+5.4%	+9.9%	+14.4%	+0.8
UNH	389.41	-2.5%	-4.8%	+6.4%	+12.0%	+0.1
PLTR	186.38	+8.5%	+30.0%	+30.0%	+23.1%	+0.4
CRM	257.54	+24.9%	+41.8%	+41.0%	+29.0%	+3.3
CVX	206.14	+4.4%	+10.8%	+10.0%	+16.5%	+1.3
TMUS	180.44	+0.8%	-0.2%	-5.0%	-6.5%	-0.5
WFC	86.39	-0.3%	+1.9%	+5.8%	+2.8%	-0.3
CSCO	110.49	-3.9%	-5.2%	+7.7%	+18.1%	-0.5
PM	187.30	-0.9%	+1.3%	+5.8%	+9.0%	-0.3
IBM	233.87	-0.0%	-7.0%	-4.4%	-10.2%	-1.0
ABT	110.36	-0.8%	+11.1%	+12.1%	+4.5%	+0.7
GE	335.71	-6.8%	-4.9%	+2.6%	+4.8%	-1.4
MRK	147.76	+5.6%	+14.9%	+21.1%	+27.1%	+1.5
LIN	489.58	+0.8%	-3.1%	-2.4%	+2.5%	-0.5
AMD	470.72	-2.2%	-6.8%	+17.9%	+39.8%	-0.1
NOW	147.99	+16.9%	+31.4%	+38.3%	+24.2%	+2.2
MS	213.32	-0.9%	-0.8%	+8.9%	+13.3%	-0.3
AXP	330.17	-2.7%	-2.0%	+2.0%	-1.8%	-0.8
ISRG	376.86	-1.4%	-3.5%	-11.8%	-19.4%	-1.0
GS	1,025.90	-1.1%	-2.4%	+5.8%	+9.2%	-0.7
INTU	359.30	+4.2%	+17.5%	+1.6%	-16.6%	+0.5
ACN	189.76	+5.9%	+19.0%	+9.6%	-5.6%	+1.1
DIS	107.55	+2.1%	+7.0%	+6.8%	+4.1%	+0.5
TXN	260.91	-4.0%	-9.2%	-0.3%	+10.8%	-0.5
RTX	207.73	-4.4%	+3.9%	+6.8%	+8.6%	-0.5
QCOM	170.48	+5.1%	-7.3%	+0.2%	+2.1%	-0.2
BKNG	199.09	-4.3%	+6.7%	+11.5%	+7.4%	+0.0
ADBE	292.79	+8.7%	+21.9%	+19.6%	+8.9%	+1.9
CAT	797.47	-4.7%	-10.9%	-5.2%	+4.1%	-1.3
T	25.89	+4.6%	+12.0%	+4.8%	+4.9%	+0.5
VZ	50.02	+3.2%	+9.1%	+7.3%	+12.5%	+0.8
PFE	28.46	+4.8%	+12.0%	+10.7%	+12.2%	+1.8
AMGN	429.88	+2.3%	+14.0%	+19.0%	+22.1%	+1.4
SPGI	435.84	+3.5%	+5.0%	+6.6%	+1.7%	+0.5
BSX	48.30	-2.7%	+3.1%	-12.2%	-28.8%	-0.7
UBER	75.65	-0.4%	+3.4%	+2.7%	-1.3%	-0.2
BLK	1,155.61	+0.2%	+8.1%	+10.8%	+9.9%	+0.5
C	131.62	-2.3%	-2.8%	+3.6%	+8.4%	-0.8
NEE	82.34	-2.4%	-4.1%	-6.9%	-4.8%	-0.8
HON	213.53	-6.9%	-7.7%	-8.6%	-6.3%	-1.8
SYK	323.80	-3.4%	+0.2%	-0.9%	-4.3%	-0.6
TJX	133.91	-9.7%	-13.2%	-13.7%	-13.1%	-4.0
LOW	204.70	-5.1%	-4.3%	-8.9%	-12.8%	-1.2
DHR	213.56	+2.7%	+9.3%	+12.2%	+5.5%	+1.0
PGR	218.08	+1.6%	+2.4%	+5.2%	+4.7%	-0.0
GILD	146.34	+4.3%	+10.3%	+8.6%	+10.2%	+0.6
BA	207.78	-7.1%	-5.6%	-5.4%	-5.5%	-0.7
UNP	300.67	+0.2%	+5.3%	+11.3%	+16.8%	+0.9
ETN	401.88	-7.2%	-2.7%	+0.9%	+6.2%	-0.9
ADP	286.16	+3.7%	+14.6%	+25.2%	+22.2%	+1.9
COP	132.49	+4.9%	+13.5%	+11.8%	+20.0%	+1.4
MU	958.73	+3.9%	-0.5%	+29.6%	+62.0%	-0.0
ADI	362.14	-3.9%	-7.2%	-3.5%	+5.0%	-0.9
LRCX	301.49	-4.3%	-9.5%	+3.0%	+16.9%	-0.8
KLAC	175.45	-8.3%	-18.1%	-7.7%	+3.2%	-1.6
PANW	382.13	+4.0%	+15.7%	+49.1%	+65.9%	+1.5
CRWD	231.00	+10.0%	+20.2%	+50.1%	+63.9%	+1.3
ANET	195.69	+0.6%	+10.6%	+21.6%	+29.8%	+0.3
MDT	90.65	+0.5%	+8.0%	+8.1%	+2.2%	+0.6
VRTX	544.52	+4.1%	+11.4%	+16.3%	+17.4%	+1.3
REGN	799.08	-0.4%	+15.0%	+12.1%	+9.8%	+0.7
CB	338.60	-1.8%	-0.7%	+1.5%	+4.4%	-0.8
SCHW	109.82	+0.4%	+9.6%	+14.1%	+13.7%	+0.6
SO	88.00	-3.3%	-5.3%	-5.8%	-3.3%	-1.6
DE	654.91	+5.8%	+8.6%	+10.9%	+16.6%	+1.2
MO	68.48	+2.3%	-2.1%	+0.1%	+5.6%	-0.5
BMY	66.81	+1.8%	+10.8%	+13.0%	+17.5%	+1.0
PLD	139.92	-0.8%	-1.9%	-0.0%	+3.1%	-0.2
DUK	119.91	-1.9%	-3.2%	-4.1%	-2.0%	-1.4
APH	158.55	-3.1%	-0.1%	+7.7%	+9.4%	-0.7
CME	285.50	+5.5%	+11.7%	+3.5%	+3.8%	+0.8
ICE	160.70	+3.1%	+11.4%	+6.4%	+4.1%	+0.7
ELV	392.54	-0.6%	-1.0%	+8.0%	+10.3%	+0.4
MCD	263.54	-2.3%	-3.3%	-8.2%	-10.6%	-1.2
KKR	109.72	+1.3%	+9.8%	+12.6%	+4.0%	+0.2

Click a ticker to chart its full stretch history, or click a specific MA cell (e.g. CME's 21d %) to open that exact window. Cells shaded green (above) / red (below) by magnitude. Composite Z ≥ |2| (red) flags a 3-year statistical extreme. Default order = market cap.

Top 50 ETFs by AUM — Distance From MAs (click any header to sort)

Ticker	Last	21d %	65d %	130d %	200d %	Comp Z
SPY	767.05	-0.3%	+2.0%	+6.1%	+8.4%	-0.1
IVV	770.74	-0.3%	+2.0%	+6.1%	+8.4%	-0.1
VOO	704.89	-0.3%	+2.0%	+6.1%	+8.4%	-0.1
VTI	378.15	-0.4%	+1.8%	+6.0%	+8.4%	-0.1
QQQ	716.76	-0.2%	+0.2%	+5.9%	+9.5%	-0.3
VUG	88.24	-0.1%	+1.9%	+6.0%	+7.4%	-0.2
VEA	72.92	+0.0%	+2.2%	+5.3%	+8.6%	+0.0
IEFA	100.26	-0.3%	+2.6%	+5.3%	+7.5%	+0.1
VTV	224.85	-0.3%	+2.3%	+6.7%	+10.0%	+0.3
BND	72.24	-0.2%	-0.4%	-0.4%	-0.4%	-0.7
AGG	97.41	-0.1%	-0.3%	-0.4%	-0.4%	-0.7
VGT	120.49	+0.6%	+2.5%	+11.4%	+16.9%	+0.3
IWF	122.71	-0.5%	+0.4%	+3.2%	+3.9%	-0.5
IJH	75.35	-2.2%	-0.8%	+2.8%	+5.7%	-0.5
VXUS	87.32	+0.2%	+2.1%	+5.1%	+8.0%	+0.0
IEMG	81.73	+1.2%	+1.4%	+5.1%	+9.5%	+0.1
IJR	144.52	-2.3%	-0.4%	+4.9%	+8.8%	-0.2
GLD	408.42	+0.8%	+5.0%	-1.0%	-1.6%	-0.6
VIG	242.07	-0.9%	+1.4%	+4.9%	+6.6%	-0.2
VO	82.06	-1.1%	+1.3%	+5.3%	+7.6%	-0.0
IWM	293.93	-2.0%	-0.5%	+4.9%	+8.5%	-0.2
VWO	60.52	+0.5%	+1.8%	+4.0%	+6.0%	-0.0
XLK	186.50	+0.5%	+1.4%	+11.0%	+17.1%	+0.2
BNDX	47.55	-0.5%	-0.7%	-0.5%	-0.4%	-1.3
SCHD	34.89	+1.2%	+5.5%	+9.0%	+13.8%	+1.0
VB	299.15	-1.7%	+0.2%	+4.4%	+7.4%	-0.2
IWD	256.91	-0.2%	+3.5%	+8.9%	+12.8%	+0.6
RSP	219.39	-0.6%	+2.2%	+6.2%	+8.6%	+0.2
VYM	163.87	-0.8%	+1.5%	+4.7%	+7.4%	-0.2
ITOT	167.92	-0.4%	+1.8%	+6.0%	+8.4%	-0.1
IVW	139.60	-0.5%	+1.7%	+6.6%	+9.1%	-0.2
VEU	85.25	+0.1%	+2.0%	+5.0%	+8.0%	-0.0
TLT	82.52	+0.0%	-1.6%	-2.4%	-2.9%	-0.4
VT	160.55	-0.1%	+2.0%	+5.7%	+8.2%	-0.0
MUB	105.10	-0.5%	-1.0%	-0.8%	-0.6%	-1.0
LQD	106.21	-0.1%	-0.8%	-1.0%	-1.1%	-0.8
IWB	419.88	-0.3%	+2.0%	+6.1%	+8.3%	-0.1
QUAL	222.62	-0.8%	+1.6%	+5.6%	+7.7%	-0.2
DIA	531.57	-0.7%	+1.6%	+5.8%	+7.4%	-0.0
XLF	57.71	-0.2%	+3.9%	+8.7%	+8.7%	+0.3
VCSH	78.53	-0.1%	+0.2%	+0.4%	+0.6%	-1.1
IXUS	97.42	+0.1%	+2.1%	+5.1%	+8.1%	+0.0
MBB	93.10	-0.2%	-0.3%	-0.4%	-0.2%	-0.7
JEPI	57.50	-0.5%	+1.9%	+2.8%	+3.3%	-0.1
DGRO	79.02	-0.6%	+2.2%	+6.0%	+8.3%	+0.1
USMV	101.52	+0.7%	+3.8%	+5.7%	+6.5%	+0.7
VV	353.42	-0.2%	+2.0%	+6.2%	+8.5%	-0.1
EFA	107.45	-0.4%	+2.4%	+5.3%	+7.4%	+0.0
GOVT	22.44	-0.2%	-0.3%	-0.5%	-0.6%	-0.7
SCHF	28.22	-0.1%	+2.0%	+5.4%	+8.7%	+0.0
MTUM	300.36	-2.5%	-4.5%	+3.0%	+8.2%	-0.9
VLUE	201.54	+0.7%	+2.2%	+13.2%	+22.5%	+0.4
SIZE	182.76	-0.9%	+1.8%	+5.8%	+8.0%	+0.1
EEM	67.02	+1.1%	+1.0%	+5.0%	+9.6%	+0.0
EWJ	95.88	+0.0%	+2.4%	+5.8%	+8.9%	+0.1
FXI	35.37	-0.7%	+2.3%	+0.1%	-3.2%	-0.3
INDA	49.70	-0.3%	+1.2%	+1.5%	-1.6%	-0.2
SLV	60.13	+1.8%	+4.8%	-6.0%	-7.6%	-0.4
DBC	31.30	+4.0%	+8.0%	+7.8%	+16.1%	+1.2
USO	133.70	+5.5%	+8.6%	+7.7%	+26.0%	+0.6
UNG	10.54	+4.7%	-2.3%	-5.0%	-10.7%	+0.3
DBA	29.32	+4.3%	+6.7%	+7.2%	+9.7%	+1.3
HYG	79.81	+0.2%	+0.6%	+1.3%	+1.7%	-0.5
EMB	94.77	-0.2%	-0.4%	+0.4%	+0.7%	-0.9
IEF	92.74	-0.3%	-0.6%	-1.0%	-1.2%	-0.7

Click a ticker or MA cell to open its stretch-history chart. Product ETFs (broad, sector, bond, international, commodity); leveraged/inverse excluded. Default order = AUM.

Top 100 Stocks — 10 most overbought & oversold

⬇ 10 Most OVERSOLD stocks (washed out) — by composite Z

Ticker	vs 200d	Comp Z
TJX	-13.1%	-4.0
WMT	-11.2%	-2.1
HON	-6.3%	-1.8
KLAC	+3.2%	-1.6
SO	-3.3%	-1.6
GE	+4.8%	-1.4
DUK	-2.0%	-1.4
CAT	+4.1%	-1.3
AVGO	+0.5%	-1.3
MCD	-10.6%	-1.2

⬆ 10 Most OVERBOUGHT stocks (extended) — by composite Z

Ticker	vs 200d	Comp Z
CRM	+29.0%	+3.3
NOW	+24.2%	+2.2
ADBE	+8.9%	+1.9
ADP	+22.2%	+1.9
PFE	+12.2%	+1.8
MRK	+27.1%	+1.5
PANW	+65.9%	+1.5
MSFT	+18.1%	+1.5
COP	+20.0%	+1.4
AMGN	+22.1%	+1.4

Top 50 ETFs — 5 most overbought & oversold

⬇ 5 Most OVERSOLD ETFs — by composite Z

Ticker	vs 200d	Comp Z
BNDX	-0.4%	-1.3
VCSH	+0.6%	-1.1
MUB	-0.6%	-1.0
MTUM	+8.2%	-0.9
EMB	+0.7%	-0.9

⬆ 5 Most OVERBOUGHT ETFs — by composite Z

Ticker	vs 200d	Comp Z
DBA	+9.7%	+1.3
DBC	+16.1%	+1.2
SCHD	+13.8%	+1.0
USMV	+6.5%	+0.7
IWD	+12.8%	+0.6

Click any ticker to chart its stretch history and its forward-return spaghetti from prior times it hit this same extreme. Ranked by composite Z (mean of the four MA-distance Z-scores vs 3-yr history). Negative = oversold / washed out (bounce candidates); positive = overbought / extended (fade or trail-stop candidates). |Z| ≥ 2 ≈ more stretched than ~97.5% of the past three years. Refreshes with every rebuild. Extension is a positioning gauge, not a timing trigger — pair with the Snapback Lab for forward odds.

🔎 Stretch Screen — candidates at a 95th / 5th-percentile MA stretch, ranked by their forward returns from this location (2023 → current only)

Only names currently sitting at a location extreme — top 5% (stretched high) or bottom 5% (stretched low) of their distance-from-MA distribution since 2023. For each, the table shows the forward 5 / 10 / 21-day return (median · win-rate) from prior visits to that same extreme in the 2023→current regime, and the Play: Fade / Bounce = mean-reversion (forward runs against the stretch), Ride / Break = the study says go with it. Edge★ = |21-day forward median| × sample × win-conviction — the sort key. Click a ticker for its history + snapback.

21-Day MA · 10 names at the extreme

#	Ticker	Class	Dist vs MA	Pctile	Fwd 5d	Fwd 10d	Fwd 21d	n	Play	Edge★
1	TJX	Stock	-9.7%	0th	+2.1% · 76%	+2.9% · 89%	+6.6% · 100%	37	Bounce ▲	6.12
2	GE	Stock	-6.8%	3th	+1.7% · 61%	+5.2% · 77%	+5.7% · 84%	44	Bounce ▲	4.79
3	CRM	Stock	+24.9%	100th	-0.4% · 49%	+1.5% · 69%	+3.8% · 74%	35	Ride ▲	2.50
4	DBA	ETF	+4.3%	97th	-0.1% · 48%	-0.6% · 48%	-3.4% · 36%	44	Fade ▼	2.15
5	KLAC	Stock	-8.2%	5th	+3.7% · 64%	+1.7% · 60%	-3.4% · 45%	42	Break ▼	1.84
6	ETN	Stock	-7.2%	3th	+1.4% · 68%	+3.3% · 70%	+2.4% · 59%	44	Bounce ▲	1.41
7	HON	Stock	-6.9%	1th	+0.5% · 54%	+1.7% · 67%	+2.0% · 67%	39	Bounce ▲	1.33
8	NOW	Stock	+16.9%	99th	+1.1% · 58%	+2.3% · 66%	-0.4% · 45%	38	Fade ▼	0.20
9	WMT	Stock	-4.5%	5th	+1.0% · 66%	+0.3% · 55%	-0.3% · 47%	38	Break ▼	0.15
10	CME	Stock	+5.5%	95th	+0.1% · 52%	-1.0% · 38%	-0.1% · 50%	42	Fade ▼	0.04

200-Day MA · 15 names at the extreme

#	Ticker	Class	Dist vs MA	Pctile	Fwd 5d	Fwd 10d	Fwd 21d	n	Play	Edge★
1	TJX	Stock	-13.1%	0th	+3.0% · 87%	+3.8% · 94%	+8.3% · 94%	31	Bounce ▲	5.99
2	SLV	ETF	-7.6%	5th	+2.8% · 56%	+3.0% · 66%	+9.1% · 81%	32	Bounce ▲	5.91
3	AMGN	Stock	+22.1%	96th	-0.2% · 44%	-1.8% · 31%	-7.3% · 11%	36	Fade ▼	5.86
4	HON	Stock	-6.3%	4th	+1.9% · 76%	+2.9% · 82%	+4.7% · 91%	45	Bounce ▲	4.28
5	PANW	Stock	+65.8%	98th	-3.0% · 48%	+1.5% · 56%	+7.5% · 84%	25	Ride ▲	3.96
6	LOW	Stock	-12.8%	3th	+2.5% · 67%	+3.0% · 79%	+4.3% · 86%	43	Bounce ▲	3.73
7	CRWD	Stock	+63.9%	97th	+0.6% · 58%	+1.3% · 52%	+4.2% · 70%	40	Ride ▲	2.91
8	MCD	Stock	-10.6%	1th	+2.2% · 81%	+2.3% · 92%	+2.9% · 78%	36	Bounce ▲	2.03
9	IWD	ETF	+12.8%	96th	+0.1% · 62%	+0.8% · 75%	+3.2% · 92%	24	Ride ▲	1.74
10	CRM	Stock	+29.0%	97th	-1.0% · 27%	-1.2% · 32%	-2.1% · 34%	44	Fade ▼	1.42
11	SCHD	ETF	+13.8%	96th	-0.2% · 37%	-0.8% · 37%	-1.9% · 20%	30	Fade ▼	1.15
12	ADP	Stock	+22.2%	100th	-0.9% · 26%	-0.8% · 22%	-1.9% · 30%	27	Fade ▼	0.92
13	ISRG	Stock	-19.4%	3th	+2.4% · 75%	+2.9% · 75%	+1.5% · 61%	28	Bounce ▲	0.62
14	PFE	Stock	+12.2%	98th	-1.8% · 30%	-1.5% · 30%	-0.7% · 35%	40	Fade ▼	0.42
15	WMT	Stock	-11.2%	1th	+0.3% · 52%	+0.8% · 56%	-0.3% · 44%	25	Break ▼	0.12

Forward-return windows overlap (not de-clustered), so treat n as occurrences, not independent trials — a context/odds gauge, not a timing trigger. Percentiles and forward samples are both computed only over 2023→current, so this reflects the current regime, not the 2008–2022 history the Snapback Lab uses. Refreshes every build.

Stretch History — distance from a moving average over time, with the asset's own ±2σ bands

Asset

MA window:

Distance of price from the selected moving average over time. The dashed lines are this asset's historical mean and ±2σ of that distance — when the blue line pokes outside the band, the name was statistically stretched (the same condition the composite Z flags). Switch the MA window to see tactical (21d) vs primary-trend (200d) extension. For forward returns after any stretch level, use the 🎯 Threshold Lab tab.

Forward Returns Under the Current MA Setup — what historically followed this exact configuration

Asset

Signature = price above/below each of the 21/65/130/200-day MAs plus the short-term trend (whether the 21d MA is rising or falling over 10 sessions). We match every prior day in the identical signature and measure forward 5/10/21-day returns. "Edge" = conditional median minus the unconditional baseline. Few matches (n<20, flagged) = treat as anecdote, not signal. Deep history back to 2008 where available.

🎯 Snapback Lab — forward returns when an asset hits a historical stretch extreme

Asset

MA:

Extreme:

"Bottom 5%" = days when price was more below the chosen MA than 95% of the asset's history since 2008 (the most oversold / stretched-down extreme → snapback-up candidate). "Top" = the overbought extreme → snapback-down candidate. The table shows forward 5/10/21-day returns from those days vs the unconditional baseline; "Edge" = conditional median − baseline. The current-percentile banner shows how close the asset is to an extreme right now. Percentiles are in-sample (vs full history) — a ranking/context measure; n<20 (flagged) = anecdote, not signal.

🔔 Fresh 21-Day Crosses — every name that crossed its 21-day MA in the last two sessions

Show:

A cross = price closed on the opposite side of its 21-day MA vs the prior session. Yesterday = the most recent session; 2 days ago = the one before. Trend-aligned (★) = the 65/130/200-day MAs were all already on the new side — i.e. a true Alignment Cross (the high-quality subset). Click any row to open that name's cross study. "Hist 21d med" = the historical median 21-session return after that name's aligned cross in the same direction.

⚡ Alignment Cross — the 21-day snaps back into an already-unanimous longer-term trend

Asset

Direction:

The signal. Bullish reclaim = price was below its 21-day MA but above all of the 65/130/200-day MAs (a pullback inside an intact uptrend), then closed back above the 21-day — all four now aligned up. Bearish loss = the mirror (a bounce inside an intact downtrend that rolls back over). Each faint strand is the forward 1–30 session path after one such cross (green ended higher, red lower); the bold dashed line is the median with its 25–75 band. If the asset is primed (odd-man-out right now) or has just crossed, the banner flags the live opportunity and overlays the live path. Events are de-duplicated to ≥10 sessions apart; n<20 (flagged) = anecdote, not signal. History since 2008.

🎯 Threshold Lab — "the name just hit X% from its MA — what happened next?"

Asset

MA:

Level %

breached:

Since Regime

Type any level and pick a direction: a breach is the session price's distance from the chosen MA first crosses that level. Regime adds an "AND" filter — e.g. only breaches while the name is above a rising 200-day (buy-the-dip-in-an-uptrend). Each faint strand is the forward 1–30 session path from a breach; bold dashed = median with 25–75 band; indigo = the most recent (still-open) instance. Everything is computed live in your browser; Export CSV downloads every breach date + its 1–30 session forward returns. Daily data since 2020.

What This Measures

For every instrument we compute the percentage distance of price from each moving average (21, 65, 130 and 200 sessions): distance = price / SMA − 1. Positive means price is above the average (uptrend / extended up); negative means below (downtrend / extended down). The four windows span the spectrum from one-month tactical (21d) to one-year primary-trend (200d).

Why the Z-Score Matters

A raw +8% above the 200-day means something very different for low-volatility Berkshire than for high-beta Nvidia. So each distance is normalized into a Z-score against that name's own 3-year history of the same distance: Z = (distance − 3yr mean) / 3yr std. The composite Z averages the four windows into a single stretch reading. |Z| ≥ 2 (flagged red) means the instrument is more extended than it has been ~97.5% of the time over three years — a statistical mean-reversion candidate, in either direction.

How to Use It

Trend health / breadth: the "% above each MA" bars. Broad readings >50% across all four windows = healthy participation; a market where the index is above its 200d but <50% of names are is narrow and fragile.
Mean-reversion watchlist: the Most-Stretched leaderboards rank names by composite Z. High positive = overbought / extended up (fade or trail stops); high negative = washed out / extended down (bounce candidates). Extension is not a timing signal on its own — pair with a catalyst or a turn in the short-window (21d) distance.
Cross-asset rotation: the index heatmap shows which size/style cohorts (large vs mid vs small) are extended versus lagging — the raw material for the kind of ratio-spread trades in the other research tabs.

Caveats

Distance from a moving average is a positioning/▒extension gauge, not a directional forecast — strong trends stay extended for long stretches. The stock and ETF lists are a curated snapshot ordered by approximate market cap / AUM (the distance figures are live; the membership is refreshed manually). Newly-listed names with under one year of history show a distance but no Z-score. Index levels use yfinance spot symbols (^GSPC, ^NDX, …).